[April 2021 - Very Cold but Very Sunny]

I very much remember it, as my wife and I were both out of work at the time thanks to Covid, and we have a south-facing balcony - so April 2021 in the daytime was fantastic, with the sun low enough in the sky to fully illuminate the covered balcony.

However, we made the mistake of heading for our first post-lockdown pint one afternoon, and sat outside a hastily rearranged BrewDog, basking in the sun in t-shirts and jeans. 

But the second the sun even went behind a building at ~6pm we had to run back home, so sudden was the temperature drop.

I also remember snow/graupel showers in London

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 Alderc 2.0 From my (very) amateur perspective, the GFS 00z has the UK much closer to the high, ECM with less of the high and more of the northerly component, a much less desirable outcome

[Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards]

Fabulous few minutes here in Shepherds Bush, sudden darkness, then heavy sleet, hail, and then graupel.

It passed as soon as it arrived

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

3 hours ago, Cannonfoda said:

This in spades.   Although tiktok generation seem to have lost agility and ability to use common sense.

Local gala day (lithgy marches) has a saying "safe out, safe in" which fits with how people should look after themselves.

It's most definitely not a generational thing, stupidity has no age limit 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

A few flakes in the breeze in Mill Hill, despite a clear radar. Must be blowing ahead of the mass of precipitation, as the wind is quite strong at times

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Interesting radar for when I'm working around Hampstead Heath this afternoon, will I be far enough SE...

 

 

[deep low for southern england\east anglia]

15 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

The triangle shows me having less than I think I've had! Local weather station shows 40.5mm to midnight.

I've noticed that weird anomaly on radar a few times, definitely some kind of artefact

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

On 29/12/2023 at 14:37, MJB said:

This period will start in an unsettled fashion, with showers in many places, and these will be heavy at times, with temperatures around normal for early January. During the rest of the period there will be a gradual trend towards more settled and somewhat colder conditions with some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Occasional unsettled spells are still possible, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than conditions of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 29 Dec 2023

Just for clarity but it keeps going back to yesterdays 

Apologies as I know you didnt want the discussion in here 

This forecast is becoming increasingly accurate.

 

I think it shows the value of the input of a trained and experienced meteorologist.

[deep low for southern england\east anglia]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Here's a snapshot of the accumulations over the past 12 hours:

Having seen the rain in West London earlier, I'm not at all surprised by that

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, johncam said:

GFS has hardly any frost away from Scotland,  as you say need high further NW so can draw in colder NE air from Scandi 

You don't need a frost for it to be very cold.

3C in the day and 1C at night would be a very cold, yet (air) frost free period of weather.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Extremely wet here in North London, and lots more to come by the looks of it.

Grim.

[Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship]

I'll nominate July 2013.

It might not have been the hottest, but being starved of hot, sunny, summer weather since 2006 made it feel more significant

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

10 minutes ago, Howie said:

Bloody Atlantic always finds a way to mess things up ugh

Which output are you referring to here? It would be useful to know what you're basing your thoughts on.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

If it wasn’t looking ‘messy’, people would be fretting over it looking cold but dry

Yes, you also wonder how people would have reacted if there was a clean Easterly feed with -5 uppers and lake effect, erm, rain

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Just now, Nick2373 said:

 

18z Shows a cold spell from the 30th to 05th of December then a suggestion of something warmer with ppn spikes picking up to.

Things generally seem to be firming up on a 4-5 day cold spell now, with the odd chance of some snow, not too bad at all considering it's late November.

People would get a lot less upset (just pre-empting this AMs reactions...) if they weren't constantly chasing 16 day long narnia spells - the likelihood of that happening on an island in our particular global locale in late autumn/early winter is very low indeed.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

There always seems to be some stupid shortwave messing things up for us ugh

The shortwave that has 'spolied' Monday is the exact reason the models look so good from Tuesday onwards.

Monday has never looked cold.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Poor enough tbh, Easterly feed getting cut off and uppers not great!

We only just (appear) to have resolved T+96, I don't think there's much point worrying about 100+ hours later!

Also, uppers become less important as cold becomes entrenched, particularly under a slack continental flow.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

Mild sector again.

That chart is for Monday, which as far as I can tell, has never been progged to be cold?

All the action is Tuesday onwards.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

Millions of people got a much better deal out of it than that though

Indeed, there was a good couple of inches of snow lying for over a week where I work in North London.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

6z GFS really pumping heights up into Greenland, giving a NEly before collapsing the high.

It's really sticking to its guns

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Curate’s egg 

looks promising and then fails to deliver- I guess the spurs fans on here can relate

It only really goes 'wrong' from day 9 onwards though, lots of water to pass under the bridge before that.

Although the general trend doesn't look fantastic with regards to cold

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 hours ago, booferking said:

Very happy with the jma feeling seasonal & wedgie with lows sliding south of us jet heading into Spain you don't need big omega blocks for cold weather that some posters keep trying to remind us that we're not going to get  remember folks metoffice is not the holy grail oh look they've change there outlook to possible wintry showers on the hills.

There really is no need for 'Holy Grail' charts as we approach solar minimum - December 2017 comes to mind 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

4 hours ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

Good Morning all.

I hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

Looks like another bout of heavy thundery type downpours are looking to track across extreme Southern coastal areas of our region, in the next few hours. I hope our own Nick F. doesn't mind me quoting his Thunderstorm Watch post:

"A strong cyclonic westerly flow covers most of northern Europe, with a strong zonal jet stream running from NE USA across the N Atlantic to N France and on through Germany and Poland. Returning polar martime flow across the UK will be characterised by increasingly steep lapse rates, as cold air floods eastwards aloft (500 hPa temps below -25C), relative warm SSTs below will create sufficient instability to support scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over sea but which will drift onshore at times across western coastal areas of Britain over the next 24hrs. A shortwave trough in the jet stream close to the far S of England running east along the English Channel / N of France is forecast to force a more organised area of convection in an environment of stronger deep layer shear in association with the jet stream. Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms look to graze southern coastal counties of England Tuesday morning as they run east across the English Channel and eventually into the far N of France during the afternoon. Hail and intense rainfall leading to localised flooding is possible with these showers / storms. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, given some strong low-level shear is modelled during passage of the trough."

Issued by: Nick Finnis.

Then it will be all eyes on this 'fella, waiting in the wings on Thursday, for our Region:

It's not expected to be strong enough to warrant naming but it still has the potential to deepen further. 

It'[s certainly one to keep an eye on.

But it certainly look to remain unsettled, wet and windy at times.

Regards,

Tom Q.  

The models and the professionals seem to have totally misjudged the northward extent of the convection/rain today, some quite heavy rain indeed from embedded line convection in Shepherds Bush currently!

Edit: although I just saw the yellow warning for the South East that was issued earlier, so perhaps not that unexpected

[Storm Ciarán]

4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

People will die with warnings or not

It's all about Hazard and Risk though, if more people are aware of the hazards via the warning system, then there should be a lower risk of harm to the population overall.

People seem to think that warnings apply to them specifically, when it's more about probability of impacts 

[Storm Ciarán]

Judging by the movement of the rain on the radar, the centre would appear to be over the top of me in North London currently