daveinSB

I very much remember it, as my wife and I were both out of work at the time thanks to Covid, and we have a south-facing balcony - so April 2021 in the daytime was fantastic, with the sun low enough in the sky to fully illuminate the covered balcony. However, we made the mistake of heading for our first post-lockdown pint one afternoon, and sat outside a hastily rearranged BrewDog, basking in the sun in t-shirts and jeans. But the second the sun even went behind a building at ~6pm we had to run back home, so sudden was the temperature drop. I also remember snow/graupel showers in London

Alderc 2.0 From my (very) amateur perspective, the GFS 00z has the UK much closer to the high, ECM with less of the high and more of the northerly component, a much less desirable outcome

Fabulous few minutes here in Shepherds Bush, sudden darkness, then heavy sleet, hail, and then graupel. It passed as soon as it arrived

It's most definitely not a generational thing, stupidity has no age limit

A few flakes in the breeze in Mill Hill, despite a clear radar. Must be blowing ahead of the mass of precipitation, as the wind is quite strong at times

Interesting radar for when I'm working around Hampstead Heath this afternoon, will I be far enough SE...

I've noticed that weird anomaly on radar a few times, definitely some kind of artefact

This forecast is becoming increasingly accurate. I think it shows the value of the input of a trained and experienced meteorologist.

Having seen the rain in West London earlier, I'm not at all surprised by that

You don't need a frost for it to be very cold. 3C in the day and 1C at night would be a very cold, yet (air) frost free period of weather.

Extremely wet here in North London, and lots more to come by the looks of it. Grim.

I'll nominate July 2013. It might not have been the hottest, but being starved of hot, sunny, summer weather since 2006 made it feel more significant

Which output are you referring to here? It would be useful to know what you're basing your thoughts on.

Yes, you also wonder how people would have reacted if there was a clean Easterly feed with -5 uppers and lake effect, erm, rain

Things generally seem to be firming up on a 4-5 day cold spell now, with the odd chance of some snow, not too bad at all considering it's late November. People would get a lot less upset (just pre-empting this AMs reactions...) if they weren't constantly chasing 16 day long narnia spells - the likelihood of that happening on an island in our particular global locale in late autumn/early winter is very low indeed.

The shortwave that has 'spolied' Monday is the exact reason the models look so good from Tuesday onwards. Monday has never looked cold.

We only just (appear) to have resolved T+96, I don't think there's much point worrying about 100+ hours later! Also, uppers become less important as cold becomes entrenched, particularly under a slack continental flow.

That chart is for Monday, which as far as I can tell, has never been progged to be cold? All the action is Tuesday onwards.

Indeed, there was a good couple of inches of snow lying for over a week where I work in North London.

6z GFS really pumping heights up into Greenland, giving a NEly before collapsing the high. It's really sticking to its guns

It only really goes 'wrong' from day 9 onwards though, lots of water to pass under the bridge before that. Although the general trend doesn't look fantastic with regards to cold

There really is no need for 'Holy Grail' charts as we approach solar minimum - December 2017 comes to mind

The models and the professionals seem to have totally misjudged the northward extent of the convection/rain today, some quite heavy rain indeed from embedded line convection in Shepherds Bush currently! Edit: although I just saw the yellow warning for the South East that was issued earlier, so perhaps not that unexpected

It's all about Hazard and Risk though, if more people are aware of the hazards via the warning system, then there should be a lower risk of harm to the population overall. People seem to think that warnings apply to them specifically, when it's more about probability of impacts

Judging by the movement of the rain on the radar, the centre would appear to be over the top of me in North London currently