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Johnp

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  1. JMA showing hints of being a bit more meridional with heights edging further north than other models.
  2. I clearly spend too long on weather forums - my phone is now autocorrecting end to ens 😁
  3. Can we put to bed now the notion of the stratosphere forecasts being much more accurate? At the ens of the day (GFS for example) forecasts are all intrinsically related to the same nwp model runs and therefore prone to the same swings and flaws.
  4. It's not flat at all at t144. Hopefully we can get some trough disruption at t168.
  5. That's the 12z from two days ago. No wonder you still think things are promising 😆
  6. I know it's almost pointless discussing it, but what kind of evolution does it follow to get there?
  7. I hope all your snow wishes are fulfilled asap 👍
  8. It's not a problem when it's that far away, as long as it steers clear from Greenland
  9. The pattern is the same as the 00z run though, that's the main thing. You're unlikely to get two consecutive identical runs (especially the UKMO 144 charts!)
  10. Why would you believe it versus a high res operational run, but not against the 20 low resolution patterns spewed out four times daily?
  11. Have we had cross model agreement on anything this winter? Apart from a mild Xmas day?
  12. It's because some people write with such authority...when in fact they don't know what they're talking about.😇
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