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DJ Fart

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    Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by DJ Fart
    Incorrect wording

    4 minutes ago, kate1 said:

    I totally agree - I'm sure it's only weather geeks like us who bother even to look at the matrix. I have mentioned on this group before that I find the warnings map very confusing and hard to use and making that more user friendly might help. Do we need a weather early warning system by text (one that works)? 

    I agree, I think it's only us types who care. If my parents, for example, received a text saying "It's going to be very windy tomorrow", I think that suffices. Obviously I'm being purposefully simplistic, but it's people like us who then pore over the details, of just how windy it is, for example. For the vast majority of the public, they just need to know in decent time that there is going to be some weather which is out of the ordinary, be that heat, cold, wind, rain, snow, whatever. There will always be individuals who need greater detail, but they will a very small minority, I'd suspect. 

    • Like 2

    Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Spikey M said:

    Maybe my neighbour only lost those roof tiles psychologically. That'll save her some money.

     

    Sorry, but this place really does descend into quite baffling silliness sometimes. 

    What are you on about? Is your neighbour on here, is she? If a 50mph gust is enough to dislodge her tiles, I suspect she has greater issues! 😉 

    Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

    Thank you for writing the post I was getting ready to write until I came across yours. Even during the approach of the storm I was becoming irritated that some seem to expect warning areas to be precise to within a few metres and the assumption that the warned-of weather is guaranteed. It is a warning, it uses terminology like probability, possibility, may, chance of... tentative language

     

    @DJ Fart I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt and assume that you didn't intend to suggest that there may be peeps on here lying to get attention. I'm glad that you suffered no or very little damage and I'll celebrate that whilst I break out my little chainsaw to deal with the bird cherry that's come down in my garden across my front path.

     

    A quick read of the thread here demonstrates why the MetO are very wary of putting out warnings. It seems that there is a sizeable number who begrudge warnings for peeps in an area which may be about to get hit hard. This has been a theme for the last few months and I noticed it about 2 weeks after England had their October heatwave. As Scotland had a red warning for rain slapped on the east coast the complaints began, with peeps not realising that as they basked in their heatwave, that Scotland had had widespread flooding, some places were still flooded, the ground was saturated and a man had died. Sure enough,the atmospheric river hit the east coast of Scotland and peeps were flooded out of their homes again. However the complaints about Scotland's red warning stopped when a rain band from the system crossed the Midlands. Then out went the cry "We didn't get adequately warned!" The MetO can't win - they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. Yes, I've been cross to get a snow warning two hours into a blizzard. Postcasts help nobody. Last night, however, the red warning was in advance, albeit by only 90-odd minutes and it was a far more uncertain situation.

    Maybe if peeps were better able to understand the warning system, to grasp the tentative nature of them, they'd be more inclined to thank their lucky stars when they escape the worst of the impacts instead of begrudging the warning for peeps who did get hit hard. I'm sorry, I've had a pretty much sleepless night, I'm tired, I'm fraught and I have the "delight" of going out there in a still strong wind to chainsaw my beloved bird cherry.

    Absolutely not suggesting anyone would lie, it was the fact that people exaggerate (without even meaning to) based on a psychological need to belong.

    Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by DJ Fart

    Some salient points made here this morning.  It's often the way that people get swept up in the moment and want to be seen to be 'joining in' or experiencing the very worst when, in reality, they're not.  In a world where calm and reason doesn't get heard, people resort to hyperbole to get themselves noticed.  I was up working on a presentation for today until about 01:30 last night here in the far north of Essex.  I knew the worst had passed and it had probably topped out at around 55mph, yet you still have people on here talking about it as though it's the storm of '87 all over again!  I don't mean this to sound condascending, but I do understand it from a psychological point of view.  Same when it snows or there's a heatwave: "It's 47 degrees in my garden!"  No, it's not.  But nobody will respond if the same person says "It's 33 degreees in my garden".  

    It's obvious the storm was extremely impactful for large parts of the country, and I hope everyone there is OK.  But it's also OK for your area to have got away with nothing more than a very stiff breeze.  

    Anyway, pseudo-psycho analysis over.  I'm just glad my trains are OK this morning and I'm not going to be late!  (He says).

    • Like 3

    Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    I'd rate Storm Isha a definite 8 out of 10, for longevity alone. Based on local recordings, I've experienced gusts in the high 50's, which is very rare for my location. It's still absolutely howling.

    Really?  I'm only up the A12 from you and wouldn't have it as remarkable for our area at all.  Gusty, sure, but nothing of particular note.

    • Like 1

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

    and if you post that the cold block is going to get pushed away rapidly, then you are being negative and ruining the mood of the thread🙄 I wasn't aware that positive thinking could influence the weather lol

    Indeed.  If it could we'd all be under 12 foot drifts!  Honestly, the ignore user feature is great over there.  Anyone asking "Will it snow in..." gets blocked.  Anyone trying to use reverse psychology gets blocked.  Anyone crowing that they called it weeks ago, or says "As I predicted" (before it's even happened) gets blocked.  It does make the whole thing so much more enjoyable.

    • Like 1

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    What a carp cold spell, I judge cold spells by the amount of snow grains that hit me in the eyeballs 👀 I am afraid to say that frost is very uninteresting lol. Let's hope we don't hear the phrase 2010 redux ever again this winter from all the experts in the thread 🙄

    Oh yes, totally agree.  While sunny and cold is quite nice to look at, I'm not such a fan of having to have the heating on all day (working from home).  I've said it on the model thread plenty of times, but the "Get the cold in first!!!" and "Once the cold is in, it can be hard to shift!!!!" lot are just repeating tropes they've picked up from others.  How many times now have we had very cold, but very dry spells?  With all the advancement in technology and, alleged, understanding, we're still no better at predicting the weather, not really.  

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I said this back in Dec 22, and it's just as valid now, but I think there are two firmly held beliefs that need revisiting now:

    1. "Get the cold in" - we've got the cold in, or will have next week. So what? If it's not going to produce snow, I'd rather it was mild. 

    2. "Once embedded, cold air is hard to shift" - we've seen repeated cases now where this simply isn't true. 

    Of course everyone in here will be disappointed today, other than those waiting to jump on poor old Scott, I suppose, but the chase has been fun, hasn't it? I've been doing this for years now, way before I joined here in 2013, and I can't really put my hand on my heart and say forecasting power has improved since the mid noughties, despite what I assume must be significant investment in the technology. 

    Oh well. See you for the next one!

    • Like 7
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Thursday same charts

    The NOAA chart now shows all contours into UK are from a westerly point but also still from a cold source, (NW Canada/Alaska) and about 528 DM maybe just above.The upper trough has moved west, from between Iceland and nw Scotland to be nearer Iceland. There is little indication of any troughing into Europe for the third chart in succession.

    ECMWF  just looking at the -5 C 850 MB line, (period 17-21 Jan) starts S Wales to the Thames and ends up over the northern tip of Scotland, with a general WNW 500 MB flow from the initial N’ly

    Finally the T+144 to 168h Met O upper air and surface charts, (15-17 Jan)  show  the upper ttrough  extending to some extent into southern Europe but not as sharp as the issue I showed on Tuesday a N’ly on the first day changing to a deepish surface feature with a SW;ly flow for all but the far north of Scotland by the end (17 th=Wednesday)

    So what can we suggest for the surface weather in the 6-10 day and then the 8-14 period some of these charts cover? Deepish cold to start by the end of this weekend over pretty much all of the UK. Dry for most but mini troughs are quite possible in the N’ly (they do often feature in these flows), a few snow showers around coasts early next week, enhanced over any area affected by a trough. There is a probability of the low shown on the Met O T+144 of spreading some snow into areas, say Midlands south possibly turning to rain in the SW. How far north this gets is difficult to suggest and best to wait to see how the synoptic models deal with it, by Sunday this should be getting clearer! The fact that NOAA charts show a westerly by the end of the 6-10 day period coupled with this being shown on the 8-14 (this is the third consecutive such chart,) does suggest to me a more unsettled and rather cold westerly with lows eventually succeeding in moving less cold air, perhaps only temporarily in the 10-14 day period.

    Beyond that, not for these charts

    image.thumb.png.a480955879e5354b1357536189f7f3b9.png

    image.thumb.png.d785a59e5b2f042f53ac62e681ff9127.png

    Thank you, John. The voice of reason cutting through the noise as ever. 

    • Like 11

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

    Quite a large of the south east did pretty well from December 2022 cold spell - in fact, it was way better here in north London than BFTE 2018 in terms of snow accumulations.

     

    also feb 2009 had a Thames streamer which I (think) had the met office giving a red warning for the London area due to snow totals 

    IMG_4611.png

    Yes, I travelled home from London that evening back to Colchester. I was with my threw very excited young children. O don't know who was more upset when we got to Colchester and there was just nothing, having been travelling through thick falling snow and seeing it already piling up at the stations we passed. It hung around for ages, too.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Happy people to the north of me.

    Sad people to the south.

    Here I am, stuck in the Midlands without a clue.

    This is what irks me. If people are going to call output ‘terrible’ or ‘brilliant’, they should really state where for instead of making it sound like it’s terrible/brilliant for all.

    Are you seriously going to keep posting this, several times a day? For now, I'm just happy that the MetO are confident of cold air coming in, the rest is up for grabs for all of us. Use the ignore feature for those you don't like. Honestly, it makes things so much easier. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 5
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