Betleyblizud

Interesting debate around which Alps snow forecast is the most accurate. I think someone asked this question a few weeks ago ( it may have been Paul) As I have previously mentioned my wife is from Zermatt and I've spent a lot of time there. My experience has been that snow forecast.com can be a bit 'optimistic',should we say,with its predicted snow depths. I have found it very good as a guide to the type of weather that may be around but when I have been in Zermatt it is very rarely accurate regarding the amount of snow that will lie on the ground. The locals believe Meto Central, I think it is, is a much more accurate guide. I just wonder with it being based on the GFS if the numbers quoted are potential amounts of snow that could fall rather than what might lay? Perhaps some of the model experts could inform us on that one. Also as Blessed as mentioned in his post the amounts can vary greatly after each model run. As regards the 2700m station. It's pretty high up ( you can find the excellent Igloo village at that height) but the Gornergraut railway goes up to just over 3,000m ( you will have seen clips of the hotel, shopping mall, yes shopping mall, and observatory there on the BBC drama the Night Manager). Those that have been will know it's great skiing from there where you can almost ' touch the Matterhorn'! As regards the forecast. Well according to my father in law ( so it must be right?!?!) they are expecting significant snow " up the mountain". At village level (1600m) again some decent snow expected but during the day temps are expected to be above freezing so a wintry mix is likely but by late afternoon/ early evening this will be of snow. Likely outcome is snowy nights, some very alpine scenes in a morning before a bit mushy early afternoon and then rinse and repeat!

Well heavy overnight snow here in Zermatt deposited 15cms in the town and a blinking lot on the mountains! Sadly I keep getting the upload failed sign when I try and add the pics. We did the Sunegga run this morning and then on to Gornergrat early pm. Pretty persistent snow at both so flat light but great skiing on the fresh snow. Down at village level at 1600m it's turned to heavy rain on return and it's a bit messy now. Like Blessed reported the freezing level here also seems to be at 1700 as the 'top end of town' it's still snowing! The rain is forecast to turn back to snow tonight and locally I'm being told a metre of snow from Thursday over the weekend with lower temps. So anyone heading this way next week the conditions should be tip top. Due to be sunny tomorrow late am onwards so it's off to Italy and Cervinia on skis! Thanks Blessed that's done the trick. Below a couple of pics from the Village this morning ( very wet after the rain tonight though) and one from the top of Sunegga looking down towards Findeln just as we're about to set off!

Great update BW thank you. Arrived in Zermatt on Saturday. Sufficient snow about but could do with a top up to add to existing snow levels. Pistes good but off piste a bit rocky. Village has good snow - 10-15 Cms where sun has not touched- some bare patches where it has. 120 plus cms up the mountain. Sunday was a bluebird day. Great for skiing with great light and little wind. Now today - Monday. Snow forecast.com was showing rain but as unpredictable as the mountains are light snow has turned in to moderate and persistent snow in the village. Some 10cms so far and still 'giving it some' at 10 pm ( 9 pm Uk time). Village now looking very Alpine! Hitting the slopes early am Tues will try and update conditions when I can. Unsettled conditions forecast for rest of week.

What a great picture and a fantastic place to live!! Off to Zermatt a week on Friday.Latest family feedback is that there's decent snow on the mountains above about 2000m but despite some big falls across the Alps including Wengen last weekend they have not had that much in the village this season (at around 1600m) " a few cms" ive been told but it has been very, very cold. Of course, i note, latest forecasts are indicating a considerable warm up for my vist - but thats become the norm for us! Ill try and update with piste and snow conditions in the area when im there and post a pic or two. Enjoy your skiing all!

Yes that a superb picture! It's Findeln about 2,000m up. The web cam is just a couple of hundred metres or so from the superb Chez Vrony mountain restaurant. Going forward towards the Matterhorn is a nice trail down the mountain, through the forest and under the Gornergrat railway to the Winkelmitten district of Zermatt. My wife is from Zermatt and my in laws and some family still live their. I've been very lucky in being able to visit regularly over the past 30 years or so! My sister in law rang Thursday to say they'd had about 8 inches in the village and that there were "many metres now on the mountain" . That means about a couple! Whilst I'm on can I say I think this is the best thread on the forum. The regular contributors are so enthusiastic and informative about the Alps. J10 with his weather updates, Blessed Weather with his info, John Holmes and his annual Wengen tour. Then there's 'C' with his Austrian updates and legendary 'snow portal' forecasts. We've also now got Reefseeker ( for some reason my phone changed this to Reefmaker originally- sorry) joining the party Enjoy the 2016/17 season!

And a great example of why Lake Louise can get some considerable snowfall when less than 45 mins/1 hour away and over the mountain (continental divide) at Banff and Canmore there can be considerably less throughout the winter.

Yes Mucka the potential on the current output for say Lancs, Cheshire, North Wales and North Midlands to see some significant snow is there. Of course it may not last that long and it is fair to say that, generally, easterley winds tend to bring longer and deeper cold spells. Of course because this can effect the South East significantly we hear more about it. Crewe Cold will remember a xmas around 2004/2005 when up to 4/5 inches of snow fell in Cheshire on xmas day but the charts were "rubbish", "useless" and "Bartlett type" as nothing fell south of London. Perhaps something for 'newer' visitors to consider. Look at the chart for your own area rather than relying on someone elses comments as there will naturally be a IMBY bias. Also another top tip. When we do, finally, get a real cold spell expect posts within 30 seconds of the models coming out and at 'T10 minutes' stating "The azores high is 2 miles further west this is going to be a bad run" and by T24 "This going to be a big backtrack as its not quite as blue over the UK". Its a great thread though!!

Well it depends which winter you go by. if you use the dumb down Britain version of it falling in to nice 3 month periods and mother nature agreeing to start winter on the 1st December and ending on the 31st March then yes you are correct. However when I lived a few miles from you up Highway 1 at Dead Mans Flats Winter started around the 21st December (and it still did this year) which of course would put us 10 days in to the period with some 80 plus days to go.

Excellent. That is very helpful. Thanks again John.

Many thanks John, as always.I think the link will be of great benefit to a number of us on here!

No worries. The lack of rationale or reasoning to support your viewpoint shows its time to move on. Cheers

:smiliz23: Sorry but thats not easy. If the temperature, especially at this time of year, is below average then it would be classed as cold. If snow is a possibility then where it falls would be classed as cold. Below average, I am sure, would be refered to by the Met office, as "cold for the time of year" You may be confusing cold with very cold or even extremley cold. To say there is "no hint of cold" when temperatures are below average in January is clearly misleading.

Given that the GFS(P) indicates some possible PM air towards the end of its run and that this could result in some snow, particularly at height, can you explain to me how there is "no hint of cold"? Many thanks for your help.

heavy snow in Betley - grass going white

Good point. however whenever we have a chance of something snowy and cold getting closer bear in mind we get the IMBY process. As such Midlands north may be getting 6 cms of snow (so the charts are great)whilst south of Oxford its rain so the charts are shocking" ""poor"etc or vice versa. I think the trick is to look at the trends and the weather picture for the UK and Ireland as a whole before deciding that the models are 'good or bad'.

light snow falling here in Betley now

The models are continuing with the cold theme athough mainly dry. I am not sure that since the Met Office decided the 1st of March was Spring that this is helping peoples understanding of expected weather at this time of the year. For me Snow/cold in March is 'not unexpected' from the 60's and 70's when i began following the weather -Spring like weather is more unexpected for this time of year. Last year was a 'one off' with the warmth. Do records really show spring like weather in March or is the balance over say the last 50 years more cool or cold?