Mini tiger

So is it true the very latest thoughts are that the storm is likely to have south abit sparing us the worst winds and the strongest winds will be up the channel and northern coast of France. Do the latest models indicate this ?

Something nicely convective looking now appearing in the Western English Channel heading NE. Chances of this developing into Thundery rain in the early hours to the west of London ?

That worked . Come n move in for the summer but if your from ooop norf you had better bring your factor 75.

24 again today and a nice warm breeze at the moment. The temps may have even increased in the last hour to 25. This weather would have been a blessing in the run up to mid summer in June. There are even large cumulus clouds building this eve due to the heat and warmth not surprising as mid summer was just 6 or 7 weeks ago.

Well it was 25 yesterday afternoon here and 25 forecast for today too. Clear blue skies. Better than forecsast. With just under 8 weeks of summer left if it carries on like this ill be very happy . Could do with a little bit of rain as the soil is still parched.

26's and 27's in the south on sunny days. We've been spoilt with 28-32 for a long while. Some of these autumnal look posts are on the pessimistic side. As you say a slack flow, with long hours of sunshine leads to good diurnal and surface heating with comfortable nights after midnight. No sign of temps being in the mod teens on any charts which I would consider to be more autumnal. Anyone know what and where today's maxima was recorded ?

This is what great summers are made from. If that Azores High extension verifies in a weeks time, we could be looking at a further week of fine summery weather from Mon 5th. With temps in the south and SE typically around 26 to 28oC by day with mild to warm nights. The AzH extension is supported by a further AzH cell in situ all we need is pressure to rise over Scandi and this pattern could lock in and potentially give us a cracking first half of August for summer lovers. Very little evidence this evening to support a cool atlantic regime following the heat plume this week.

When is the 12z ECM due out ? Is it running late ?

Hi Frosty. Any chance of this the heatwave lasting 3 days in Surrey, i.e. until Sat evening, as big party planned outdoors. Would appreciated your take on the chances of this coming off.

Very interesting. Cloud base is drifing very slowly north or even NNW. from a southerly direction. Scud cloud forming now here but moving ENE from a WNW direction. Probably at about 2500 ft.

That must have been one ribbon of lightning across the whole of southern england west to Hants, by the sound of things... Frontal thunder... MORE rumbles in the far distance too now..

MASSIVE ribbon of cloud to cloud lightning right over the centre of Surrey. Come on you lot, someone must have copped some of that.. Looooooong rumble !!!

Back egde of the rain coming across the channel now should reach sussex coast. Clearance should make landfall in about an hour

something else rather menacing just starting to nose in on the radar to the far SW over Biscay !! didnt expect to see that. www.raintoday.co.uk at 19:15 wonder if this will head our way much later on in the small hours ??

Rumble of Thunder and moderate heavy rain in Guilford slowly increasing in intensity by the minute... Game on !!

Any ideas what this cone shaped feature is perfectly symmetrical rising up from the top of the thunder head/anvil. If you run the latest sat sequence on www.sat24.com over France, and wait for the 18:30 frame you willl see it where ive indicated it on the image below.. Any ideas what this feature is ? Looks like a giant upside down tornado.. Theres also a shadow of the feature in a NE direction opposite to where the sun is SW.

Well the first wave has fizzled out as it crossed Surrey. Ocercast skies aloft now. Very flat looking. No AuCs or for that matter cumulus of any description..

So surface temps in slack winds under sunny skies could potentially reach 106oF ?

Is it true for central southern england to have thunderstorms tomorrow we need to be looking down wind of the far NW corner of France, a couple of hundred miles out into Biscay ?As the storms in Western France are likely to move North east into Luxembourg and Belgium ?

John Hammond has put up a forecast with charts galore in it for a change ;- http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/23451523 You can see the progression of the thundery rain modelled for this weekend. The hot air is no more than 150 - 200 miles or so away to our south east

Just wondering what are the chances of Sunday turning rather cool and overcast with some heavy rain, if the wrap around of the thundery low moving north just off the east coast. There would be a short spell of northerlies until the low moves away. Is the low likely to be modelled more of a westerly track keeping us on the warm side of the low ? Or is it being firmed up by now. Having a garden party on Saturday near Guildford so Im hoping for a warm plume not rain and 17oC...

Where do u live Richard ?