KB123

Lewes East Sussex around 9pm Slomo lamppost watching in Lewes just now

Who are you and what have you done with Summer Sun?

If the NWP systems weren't all relatively crude -- albeit of course non-trivial! -- mathematical approximations to the natural phenomena around us, I'd agree ;-) That not being the case, I'm only looking at the graphical output for broad trend guidance, and certainly only looking at the near-term output. When more distant output appears to match the eventual physical outcome, might that be more coincidence or seasonal steering perhaps in many cases rather than actual forecast skill...?

This is my take on the rather negative mood of the model discussion thread: https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19295-netweatherforumwinterjoke/

Fear not, fellow coldies! A certain Express-friendly forecaster has come to our rescue with an email this morning: "When will the major cold and snow arrive for the UK & IRELAND? The models will begin to firm up on a significant area of high pressure on the continent, which should trigger a period of significant cold (easterly) and snow for in or around the 23rd - 30th December (dates as originally suggested in April 2013)." Using cunning and daring, I somehow managed to gain access to his top-secret numerical prediction system and here, for the first time, is a glimpse of some of that amazing output for the coming few weeks: https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19294-tea-leaves/ Is that the famed Beasterly I can see?

Thanks for replying BA. Should just point out that the links aren't specifically about weather modelling but more about the inherent fun related to layering stats over non-linear physical phenomena. Many coming on to these great (by the way) forums may not yet appreciate the chasm between physical reality and the desire for model runs to verify. Many of you guys provide a great and valid commentary, though! Do find it frustrating that very occasionally you'll get a post from someone close to, for example, MetO output, which highlights the elephant in the room, which is that we pay (?) for very intelligent analysis to which we have no access, thus either turning everything into acknowledged roulette or at the best playing with one arm behind one's back. Anyway I support Netweather and I really enjoy and learn from your experience.

http://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Making-Science-James-Gleick-ebook/dp/B004Q3RRPI/ref=la_B000AQ3M1I_1_8?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1384623315&sr=1-8 http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Norton_Lorenz Fundamental reading for those new to modern numerical system interpretation and where it has come from. Probably irks some modern met men but wth! When talking about models, particularly when debate is ripe, it helps to give some context am sure. Deleted in 3... 2.... <returns to lurking position> KB