Daniel*

It’s definitely true the medium range has trended milder, it’s probably correct we will not see a wintry pattern until second half of December. 15-day EPS precip yesterday Today It’s not as rainy looking as 24 hours ago…. Good to see!

Thanks John forgot to reply. Seems likes it’s been a good start with a good base already? Cairngorm (4 hours ago)

Snow flurries here in Docklands near central London fantastic to see so early

I’ve never seen such anomalous cold modelled in vast expanse of continental Russia. The signal from EPS is overwhelming if that spills into Europe it really could be historic I do not say that lightly.

change 3.9c nd 75mm thanks

4.3c and 80mm thanks

I have produced my winter forecast for winter 2023/24. I am quite bold but I think I justify it well enough. Winter 2023/24: A Winter to Remember? WWW.THESNOWDREAMER.BLOG Winter Forecast Headlines: Overall, over the course of the meteorological winter encompassing the months of December, January and February. Temperatures are favoured to be colder than normal to...

EPS less mild in FI if anything compared to 00z big spread though. More questions than answers at the moment. Likely to turn less cold into next week though.

The cold “block” to northeast looks very entrenched on ECM 12z, while it might not influence our weather in nearer term it is interesting to see what will come of it, turning less cold probably for NW Europe but will the pattern sustain? I’m not sure.

The cold spell lives on in GFS 12z WAA pumping north with significant cold to our northeast. That’s more what we want.

Interesting how we all interpret things differently I see a lot of promise on GFS 18z it remains cold and heights reemerging to north with a slidey look to it.

Cold seems to be upgrading and prolonging although this is rather unsurprising with experience of these patterns in low solar. Clearly if it was January we would be seeing a more substantial cold spell, nonetheless wintry hazards will be possible quite widely. Not a bad start to winter London, Heathrow Birmingham

Short term upgrades on GFS more meaningful blocking into Greenland and colder T850s, it appears on Friday any precip will fall as snow.

First up ICON nice and clean with uppers more supportive of wintry precip. Set to see coldest start to meteorological winter since 2010.

Much better from GFS this morning seems -NAO Greenland high is having a bit of a resurgence in modelling and it does look more east than west based which favours NW Europe, Greenland blocking also helps with southern push of Euro cold trough. Anyone else seeing some similarities with December 2022?

The trend is a coldies friend… follow the trend. 19th 00z EPS 21st 00z 22nd 12z EPS

It’s based on model data no human input or sensationalism. And you are misunderstanding it incorporates windchill.

This is quite a significant breakthrough in NWP world an AI model called GraphCast developed by Google is best performing at day 5 while ECMWF and GFS performance bombed this was not shared with this model. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4955750

This is quite a significant breakthrough in NWP world an AI model called GraphCast developed by Google is best performing at day 5 while ECMWF and GFS performance bombed this was not shared with this model.

It’s amusing who remembers back in day we all spoke of ECM amplification bias at day 10? All those rogue Scandi highs which never materialised. Did that evaporate suddenly…

Reloading pattern seems favoured in modelling with renewed amplification in North Atlantic sector. Who knows perhaps take 2 will be more successful. I wouldn’t say this is your typical output to end November.

Let’s remind ourselves what ECM was showing nearly 48 hours ago a flat mild westerly typical +NAO pattern. The vast majority of EPS did not have much interest either. So it strikes me this model underestimated MJO forcing meanwhile GFS more effectively expressed it. It’s fair to say this has not been the models finest hour. Verifications stats are posted but in reality there is not an actual significance difference between them, perhaps some models excel better in North Atlantic region. None is perfect. now for 24th

ECM definitely shifted to GFS this morning finding more amplification upstream to Greenland. Poor show from best performing model at such short timeframe. Compare 120hrs with 12z

The first half was very good it really fell apart in second half. July was worst month that summer in central London, in fact July 2021 is my wettest month on record.

I haven’t felt cold once this autumn.