Daniel*

I’m not totally following the mood of this run I don’t think it’s terrible and a fast quick to wintry cold is not expected within next 10 days so be realistic with your expectations. it’s quite ordinary evolution what leads into Scandi heights with Iberian ridge giving helpful WAA. See change in 48 hours… ridging is going north, low heights in Central/Southern Europe… we know with MJO and weakening zonal flow, heights will want to gravitate poleward….

Your post is off topic and the obvious does not need to be stated. This is a thread to discuss model output, this place would be dead if you policed it, whether description of otherwise at day 1 or 16 it is perfectly acceptable.

This is one of very last frames from EPS, Jan 10th, it’s noteworthy at such an advanced lead to see greens in Benelux near 5C below normals evidence there is a lot of appetite already to roll some decidedly cold air west. There is evidently an already a strong signal for a significant cold outbreak in western Russia near 10C below normal, on mean at day 16 is crazy. This looks to be where there will be a fragment of polar vortex. I can’t see us complaining about shortage of cold to east. I would expect us to see more beast style synoptics in future whether they verify I don’t know but the possibility is clearly much higher than normal.

24 hour change in 12z EPS for London this is start in right direction…. adding Birmingham

Pretty big change overnight EPS no longer favouring a mild start to New Year.

Latest EC46 is pornographic for winter enthusiasts, it intensifies the -NAO blocking into early February during major disruptions we tend to see several waves of much reduced zonal wind in trop. This is not your typical cold potential..

Festive cheer from GFS a big freeze descends into week 2, the ultimate place to get high lat block that Iceland-Greenland corridor, contents of Arctic being poured into Europe.

Merry Christmas from EPS cold backing in from NE at the end 2m temp anomaly

EPS in full out Jan 8th, MSLP anomaly something is clearly brewing moving further into January. -NAO is likely coming in early January and early indications it will be stubborn.

Cold and snow potential as soon as day 5-6 for more northern areas perhaps into Midlands as well. ECM furthest south out of all of them which is interesting from top model.

GFS 00z very much giving an entrenched cold January ages since we have seen that… vortex splitting this seems to be recurring theme now from this model, some disappointment over Xmas failed cold which always looked transitory at best, that could be very quickly forgotten about. Shenanigans happening up above, so the stakes are much higher.

A cold and wintry start to new year on GFS 00z this run tends to be the Scrooge. The culprit? The displacement of stratospheric polar vortex seems to match tropospheric pattern well.

UKMO was wintry in Scotland and far north. ECM turned pretty cold further north too below is Carlisle, conclusion the jury is out with these increasingly southerly tracking lows, interest is there especially further north. GFS continues to be the most progressive.

Similar ideas yes…

25C even using 10 year average of 2013-2022

Speak of the devil not surprised myself. I’d expect tomorrow to consolidate it even more.

Good to see geopotential heights this from ECM 12Z, wave 2 attack at the end pinching vortex. I personally think vortex is in serious trouble into early 2024 setting up for a major SSW.

Looking a bit wedgey near Iceland it’s a good area for +ve heights to form to help disrupt Atlantic lows SE 192hrs > 216hrs

A promising chart if not for Euro heights… frustrating this!

How that looks if you’re wondering… 10mb temp anomaly.

Recent runs from ECMWF has been hinting of -NAO especially yesterdays 12z, the 00z went “nope” more runs needed.

Not the first run from GFS which has hinted at blocking to NE, would be grand to set the stage nicely with a frosty high with winter sunshine. The current stalemate is intolerable.

People often rave about UKMO but that’s a substantial difference between 12z now more in line with others, Azores being a pain clearly we are not going to see major high lat blocking… whether we can get a wedge which forces the pattern south remains to be seen. Struggling to remember such a woeful period of modelling clearly a lot of complexity involved. There does seem to be growing confidence Scotland is going to be in that colder boundary leading into Xmas so a white Christmas does look to be on for some.

All eyes on in early 2024… it’s an interesting possibility which I believe is growing, with potential impacts right in the cold heart of winter. Unlike last winter and many others….

Yes a white Xmas but also cold temperatures too in Scotland... Edinburgh