Daniel*

Horror show pattern into early May on tonight’s GFS 18z…. takes one back to 2007-2012. The N Atlantic/Greenland blocking is difficult to shake off in spring with polar vortex out the picture.

They are much more notable later in month that’s the point. Using the point of 2018 an exceptional spring certainly demonstrates something. If we see a daily record with over half a century of data, it’s noteworthy at the very least.

Just done for Heathrow, preliminary high of 9C it’s tied lowest max on record for date with 1973. This is exceptional.

It’s April 22nd…. The facts are your wrong.

If you’re talking to me at least @ me thanks. In what way I have done that? All I’m saying temperatures are indicated to be well below average for late April, no one has mention snow and freezing temperatures and what can be expected at this time of year. You said about me being antagonistic, I think you should look at yourself, all you do is purposely try to undermine messaging, if anything cool is mentioned, it’s a repeated pattern from you. It’s as if it upsets you personally, I find it very odd it is just the weather.

Even this weekend has downgraded, it looks rather cold for most as NE’ly is introduced. Warm in west of Ireland closest to ridge.

Still seeing drips of SSW which occurred earlier in March this could be what’s responsible, it was a significant event so of course has potential for extended influence. I don’t believe it’s result of MJO that’s been in COD. Perhaps weakening El Niño also a factor nothing we could get on side during winter remained strong.

“Slightly below normal” involves 5C even 6C below average T850s. A long time since I’ve seen such a deviation below.

Well the data suggest otherwise also signalled below on 1961-1990, below is Birmingham next week looks even cooler than this week, you must also consider the average for further in April is warmer, so using overall mean is not wise.

It seems some are in denial. The mean for Manchester has highs barely in double figures for most part. It’s certainly a cool outlook with winds frequently coming from northerly direction with cool air aloft. A bit milder this weekend with high covering UK briefly, then it looks to re-centre further NW. it’s a very poor outlook if you’re looking for warmth. If only if it was winter comes to mind.

These are quite cool my prediction we fall within 0.5C of 1991-2020 normal. I can’t see this month finishing remotely exceptional rather ordinary overall.

If you could read correctly I was not making comment for UK… in Central Europe highs will collapse from 30C to 10C in a matter of a few days. The change is considerable but of course it begins from a very elevated position.

It’s still chilly the EPS is resolute on a spell of below average temperatures which centres on Central Europe the strongest and most persistent since January. After a record warm first half in continental Europe this is a spectacular change.

nonsense this benign/cooler spell is confirmed beginning shortly. Not unusual for April.

Are they? Majority develop La Niña over summer. CFS particularly strong with it. More wishcasting from yourself. also new

It’s quite normal to break daily records in an individual year they’re not particularly noteworthy well nothing compared to monthly record or all-time. We can’t forget we are seeing influence of strong El Niño, this increased global heating accelerates the number of warm records. 2025 is expected to be cooler than 2023 and 2024, so whilst UK might not see less records on balance it should evidently around Earth there will be less but of course still well outweighing cold.

Yes but some months increase is significant for example February… 30.2% increase on 1961-1990! Really significant it used to be our driest month up to 1981-2010 now it’s third driest. I produced this graph 1948-2023… 2024 was another very wet February with 85mm.

Are you looking at map? Your location has not been drier than average. You live in a dry part of world.

very wrong

Record warm air mass and we haven’t even scraped 20C in London

Where do you see that? Met Office has a 19C high in London but feel like temperature of 15C. The gusty breeze will make it feel cooler, I can’t see it feeling warmer.

Remarkable coldest night in almost 70 years in Sweden.

Well it’s not that’s not meteorological autumn, it was first summer since 2008 where either July or August failed to reach 30c in London.

I must have missed that last summer