Daniel*

Mid March doing something which none of winter could muster on GFS 18z. Thats a full house of det runs now GFS/ECM/UKMO showing potential for deeper cold air from east to arrive in the second week of March.

The day 7 chart from ECM 12z would have caused great excitement in middle of winter. Great positioned block, Atlantic being undercut. There clearly is potential for something wintry into second week of March but northern UK most favoured.

You are the one trying to provoke saying my post was made by ChatGPT. I never read anything so nonsensical in all my years on here. I did not even directly respond to you or said anything hostile. You should not be on a weather forum if you are unwilling to listen to other people’s opinions. How you got triggered by that factual post I have no idea, I was not implying it was a freezing spring just that there are reasons some thought it was poor one.

Is that what you resort to when shutting down an argument. In relative terms it was not very mild. Daft post and May is one month of three often more akin to summer.

Well here in central ish London July 2021 was my most convective month and my wettest month on record about 150mm. These downpours were more localised to inland SE England. I think in Scotland they were very warm and dry.

Spring 2023 was poor for warmth the lowest absolute max with 22.7C at Heathrow since 1986, it highlights what's still possible within our modern climate. Sometimes we get stuck in less favourable patterns that's the nature of our climate.

Across the UK no 1998 remains the warmest.

As expected has aged terribly...

First day of spring in Ireland you couldn’t make it up!

5.4C and 60mm thanks rather cold and dry cheers. Think easterly winds will dominate.

Cooler options are creeping in 12z yesterday and today.

Strong El Niño that’s your explanation on top of GW, the long duration La Niña accumulated a lot of heat in places… El Niño will die in coming weeks/months. Oceans will be cooler late 2024 with La Niña returning.

I don’t follow the logic! Modelling not looking mild really. I think it’s likely March will be cooler than Feb…

I don’t think I’ve posted here in over a week… there are evidently strong hints of weakened Atlantic flows into early March quite a strong blocky signal in EPS. Pressure also looking higher over Scandinavia, it points to me an above average chance of winds to draw from east or southeast, there is though a big spread in potential temps but definitely drier. Meteorological winter might well end shortly, but as we saw in 2013 and 2018. March on occasion rare thing down here, can remind us of proper winter, which this winter has failed to do so. NAO

It should drop 0.1C today and stay there I can’t see it being stuck at 8C we’re probably looking at a very tiny difference with warmest.

Derecho hi I use meteociel as far as I know it’s official station. WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Relevés horaires des observations météo de Pershore ( United Kingdom ) . Températures, pression, précipitations, vent en temps réel

Min this morning -2.6C Pershore -2C Rothamsted 0.2C Stonyhurst looks to return a very similar mean to yesterday around 3C which is colder than what Derecho has.

quite cold today… Pershore 3.1C Rothamsted 2.7C Stonyhurst 3.4C = 3.1C

5C Rothamsted 4.7C Stonyhurst 5C Pershore

I don't agree, assuming Feb finished now it would be 1.6C above the record warmest (1990) at Heathrow. December 2015... practically 3C above second warmest 2023 closely followed by 1974. That was a level up I'd say while this month is still exceptional.

Simple. Those are continental climates, different climate to ours much less maritime influenced. What are you expecting?

Yes my mistake but fact remains it’s exceptional for relatively dry London.

Awful

30C in March? That’s hilarious we haven’t even had 30C in May in 19 years in London (2005).

Of course EPS experienced a massive bust but similarly to latest GFS run interest in -NAO in early March.