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Daniel*

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Everything posted by Daniel*

  1. EPS is very unsettled into April potentially wettest weather at this time of year since 2012. London Plymouth Unbelievably rainy the past 18 months and for now it continues on and on…
  2. Perhaps more mixed further north at Heathrow with 1991-2020 normals in brackets. 1998 the cloudiest summer of 1990s still above 600 sunshine hours! 1993: June 224.2 (208) July 174.6 (218) August 219.4 (202) Total: 618.2 hours 1998: June 158.4 (208) July 184.6 (218) August 262.6 (202) Total: 605 hours
  3. I was speaking more for summer. Maybe for your own, and well your location is not particularly representative. 1990s were sunniest decade in London.
  4. Quite sure we will see a decline in sunshine hours with 2001-2030 averages… we’ll lose the sunny 90s summers.
  5. Signal for below average temperatures next weekend. Arctic air.
  6. No, I categorically do not think this is possible on current climate might that change by 2100? Possibly. The main challenge is latitude and surrounding by relatively much cooler water. Realistically it would only happen in SE or EA. I feel example of Lytton, BC is given as reinventing what’s possible but there’s not a single site with similar geography to that in UK. There is not an exceptional foehn site in southern UK. The most notable foehn sites are seen in Scotland but of course it’s never going to be be as hot up there.
  7. No mistaking the exceptional cold to our north in models indeed it was prevailing theme through winter deep cold not far to our north, Iceland experienced its coldest winter since 1994/95.
  8. Not been dry at all we’ve already exceeded monthly average in London.
  9. Using Birmingham clear signal for something milder next week then temps start falling below average into following week. The forecast in Arctic is very cold, so will be interesting to see what happens.
  10. Well we did I’m just speaking for the summer. September was the most exceptional month of year.
  11. If not for a notably warm June last year, second warmest at Heathrow after 1976, it would have been possible to have not seen 30C, neither July or August achieved it was the first summer since 2008 this happened in midst of hottest year on record on Earth.
  12. 2021 was probably the poorest summer I’ve experienced since 2012 in London. In July I had 157mm of rain it’s my wettest month on record here in central ish London, near constant downpours then August the highest max locally was 23.5C which is shocking and it was a very cloudy notably so.
  13. Disagree it was the epitome of “meh” at best it’s ok. All summer months were duller than average in London many humid days. Very forgettable summer apart from that August heatwave and that was not enjoyable too hot, then month fell apart, the summer felt worse after that spring, yes it was not pouring all the time or cool but not much happened.
  14. I recently put summer together too from 1948 the data speaks for itself really. and winter updated to 2023/24…
  15. I plotted annual mean temperature at Heathrow 1973-2023, It’s quite a helpful climate visualisation what we see is step up periods typically following El Niño although this did not happen in late 80s, then periods of stability. In London the climate has warmed near 2C since early 1970s.
  16. Scorching sun easy, while I enjoy sunshine when it’s too intense it’s not enjoyable to be out in I search for shade. When I was Italy in July 2022 and August 2023, it was brutal our more northern latitude does help definitely a reason the 40C is very hard to see. I’m always quite mindful being in hot sun, skin cancer runs on my mum’s side. Snow whilst the most uncommon here, it is one of the most cherished weather events and I experience the most joy from which I’ve had since a small boy.
  17. ECM 12z was rather cold but latest GFS involves a cold pool probably some snow flurries further SE. Still a lot of uncertainty but risk of something colder from east there around 12th remains.
  18. Developing a good cold feed here… follow the isobars!
  19. The ensemble guidance could rather easily shift in a colder direction. The ens generally refuse to disrupt Atlantic energy into continent. There is agreement for a blocking high in Norwegian Sea, there was no such blocking over the winter. I wouldn’t draw too much from ens especially beyond a week, remember the total agreement in January? It’s important to look at wider context a large deceleration in zonal wind the “cold outliers” I think that’s 3 in a row from ECMWF are not happening by chance.
  20. Mid March doing something which none of winter could muster on GFS 18z. Thats a full house of det runs now GFS/ECM/UKMO showing potential for deeper cold air from east to arrive in the second week of March.
  21. The day 7 chart from ECM 12z would have caused great excitement in middle of winter. Great positioned block, Atlantic being undercut. There clearly is potential for something wintry into second week of March but northern UK most favoured.
  22. You are the one trying to provoke saying my post was made by ChatGPT. I never read anything so nonsensical in all my years on here. I did not even directly respond to you or said anything hostile. You should not be on a weather forum if you are unwilling to listen to other people’s opinions. How you got triggered by that factual post I have no idea, I was not implying it was a freezing spring just that there are reasons some thought it was poor one.
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