Daniel*

For all said about background signals ultimately this winter have experienced a strong El Niño… the most hostile ENSO for cold weather. Since 1950 there has been only 4 such winters…1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 none of these were cold, often very mild. In midst of already higher global temperatures, it cannot be startling to see why we have struggled and southern air streams have been powerful with record warm SSTs. Next winter it’s very likely we will see La Niña conditions so hopefully a fresh slate…

Well seasonal models did say backloaded winter?

I’ll have to correct you 7C maxes is not average in London at end of February the lowest average max is 8.4C in January. The normal in late Feb is 10C. It’s below average evidently if it was January, it would be a bit colder say 5C.

Never said anything about settling….

More of your classical cold zonal further on pub run, snow would be able to fall at lower levels.

The cooler and cyclonic weather is here to stay according to EPS with heights remaining withdrawn from Europe in Atlantic Ocean. I’d expect the modelling to perform much better with these more zonal patterns.

T168 looks rather slidey there, it can still be possible to see a snow event from an unremarkable cold set up. Low heights/thicknesses help.

One thing for sure it’s going to feel markedly colder after all this much milder weather. The skiers in Scotland will be delighted by outlook.

What person is looking for plume set ups in March? I think that’s odd given the climatology.

Expecting the same thing again and again will only get you so far. An early final warming is gaining likelihood in early March, it doesn't bode well for a warm or settled March. Of course in spring the frequency of northerly and easterly winds are at their greatest.

2018 of course for the novelty factor I'm not looking for warm weather in March. Plenty of time for that.

Are they? Most trees are totally bare no buds. Still very much a winter scene. Pic I took yesterday.

Unbelievable wrt AO… I’ve never seen such a huge model bust for polar blocking in mid/late Feb, something that had total cross model agreement only a matter of days ago. A week ago!

Deary me…

Yes, this really is disastrous performance from ECM gone from super blocked this morning to Atlantic influence. It appears to be falling into line with GFS, the verification stats reflect that.

The average is taken over a month I’m focusing on past week all models have slumped but GFS has not.

GFS been best performing model at day 10. Probably highlights how poor NWP is doing as a collective.

Poor run ECM 12z but increasing interest in strat which follows GFS with a secondary significant stratospheric warming coming out of Siberia driving towards the pole.

Clearly if we were not looking at a highly disruptive event in stratosphere, it would be fair to call winter over but as GFS 12z shows while the cold misses us mostly it has a radical influence on upper patterns. Predictability what little of it will be tumbling in NWP. We’ve been thrown a lifeline whether we seize it remains to be confirmed.

Very blocky run with hallmarks of an imminent or ongoing major SSW.

The start of a colder cluster in late Feb in GEFS.

Good demonstration GFS 18z with right amplified pattern how quickly things can change in terms of cold air availability. This is a difference of 5 days.

The UK has not had a real issue with drought for over a decade now in fact it is very overdue a series of dry years, last time it began with dry but very cold winter of 2009/10, 2010 and 2011 were very dry years, then we saw wettest April on record in 2012 and awful washout summer which totally eliminated long term drought. No doubt with extreme heat we have been seeing although often brief, we see the landscape suffer on surface but the bottom line against a wetter backdrop this has softened impacts to groundwater and reservoirs so impacts have not been severe. Summer droughts become severe against a long term dry background as was seen in summer of 1976 after 1975 was also very dry year. If we do experience drought issues/ water stress in summer 2024, I think we need to look to water companies very critically there is no way after all these above average rainfall month after month, there is clearly a lack of infrastructure we need to build more reservoirs to collect this rain water for a growing population.

Your drier summers are not supported by the data. The summers are visibly wetter than 1980s & 1990s the latter especially featured prolonged anticyclonic periods, this has become less regular while we have seen some great summers with notably prolonged dry conditions (2018 and 2022 for example) they have not really been representative of the modern summer. England summer rainfall amount:

Great the timeframe less great!