Daniel*

Expecting a very cold spell of weather in this month perhaps severe cold in latter part of the month into February due to the stratosphere being so bitter; I feel when it gets probed at very cold air will flood to our latitudes of course it ain't as clear cut as that, but I'm going for a decent 2.1C I confidently expect there to be a big sudden flip in our fortunes.

It barely reached 16C here phenomenally mild not seen anything like this before.

Not only it is set to be the warmest December on record it also seems the dullest to me a repulsive mix.

There was mention of it receding fizzling out on the contrary....as of what is now yesterday. Still quite a significant cold SST anomaly which I feel could be useful further down the line.

That is very incorrect I do not have the supportive charts with me however chilly westerly/northwesterly winds were being modelled a chilly blip. As of late with negative uppers in the mix enough for snow in places.

In the Vancouver Winter Olympics a few years back now they had to transport and dump tons and tons of snow due to the excessive mildness via trucks/airlifting due to the lack of snow is that conceivable for some of the snow parched resorts? Eastern Europe has some snow Russia is full to the brim lol! I suppose not..would be incredibly expensive and probably the money spent on it would melt away by how crazy mild it is..

Why are you always so insistent in the doom and gloom? I do not see you contributing much where there's colder synoptics on show sorry if I'm mistaken and it may be a distance away but it may be worth the wait the very fact this is not typical of an El Niño shows we're in unforeseen territory and potentially exciting model watching in the weeks ahead.

A dull dismal day devoid of happiness. It feels really quite muggy and wet as if it was early April ironically we're not far away from winter solstice. Mild brings this weather it's not mid summer when the strong sun can 'burn' all the crud away!

Nothing spectacular I take it standard 'autumnal' stuff? The rain doesn't look bothersome to me.

Yes unusual, very scarce the fact I recorded -2C was quite astounding by a PM airmass a bitter one of that I also had some snow again last time that happened was in 2010 and before that God knows. They have always been a rarity I'm heavily impacted by UHI being 2.4 miles from City of London. Air frosts are not common markedly so in November.

In Greater London I've had 2 air frosts a lot earlier than usual out of that November cold spell.

Indeed but I worry the vortex will be knocked to where we do not particularly want it for example Greenland instead of Eurasia side going foward we'll have to be looking towards the NE for cold routes...which can certainly deliver but it makes it harder.

That channel low did reach as far north as Orpington quite light snow there if I remember or I'm going doolally there was a diagonal cut off line I think heartbreak for some lol although the most heavy precipitation was going to waste in English Channel the S Coast did if I can remember experienced heavy drifting snowfall and it was of the powder type? - chino got a good dumping I remember as I watched things unfold in here and I got incredibly jealous but enjoyable stuff. I'm still awaiting my Thames streamer...

Well the SE is enveloped by a weak continental flow frosty conditions for my region at least it's seasonal meanwhilst foehn effect warmth to Highlands.

Not that true the euro high does not seem to reside on our shores across the channel it's a different story thus we're open to attack not good for Cumbria giving way to more mobility. There are some rather cold N/W flows out at T+210 for instance, the run is quite a lot better compared to the last - its gone from 0/10 to 3/10, although there seems to be little suggesting sustained nationwide cold spell. There are increasing incursion of colder sourced winds enough for low level snow in Scotland. The consensus to me seems for temperatures to go to more average values into the third week perhaps slightly below in the far north not as horrendous as what's going on in mainland Europe and the Scottish hills will do well the best skiing conditions in Western Europe I imagine. Also the run shows a 1040mb block in Kara Sea just off Russian coastline which may have wider implications? i

Well I still think there is a decent chance the big day will have some snow falling in the country. I'd say Inverness is a good bet some festive cheer maybe? down sarf it all looks rather miserable. Some cold zonal for the northern half of the country at T+240 seen worse... But yes no Christmas miracle let's hope the pub run is on the booze...

I believe storms of that magnitude have more than a local impact it can cause the jet stream to buckle across Pacific/North America side allowing cold Arctic air to flood south here for the UK no real impact but these storms brings up 'warm' air aloft in the atmosphere does it not? at a high latitude where it is usually frigid and I guess this is beneficial in aiding disruption to the bitterly cold stratosphere - the more knowledgeable will have more to say..?

Absolutely an appalling run GFS 12z the PV really does swell into a monster and I fail to see a quick escape I wish to forget that run hopefully the evening ECM can offer a 'Christmas miracle' I have my doubts.

Very nice photos Clark it is coming up 3 years! since the last proper snowfall and that's quite shocking I must say we have been snow starved winter 13/14 was so appalling not even any sleet, winter 14/15 gave a single smattering - while it remains to been seen what winter 15/16 can deliver. Funnily enough I have a lot of expectation this winter...if it turns out pants I will emigrate to Greenland.

As you can probably gather i'm not getting much sleep tonight. Nope very beneficial indeed for the UK there are no negative as far as I know phase 7/8 are the holy grail for a cold blocking pattern I believe. I think it's highly unusual to go to such an amplified phase during a strong El Niño. It does help force a pattern change in our latitudes I think January could be quite special! If the MJO goes into phase 7 - cautiously confident we'll face a big flip the Netweather winter forecast of a SSW in early January seems like a very decent call to me (without going too flamboyant). I do think something significantly colder is in the offings post the new year, I really do, we will see as always. I have niggling feelings for these things and I'm getting that right now. Night folks.

And this...

I saw this on my Facebook and thought of a certain person.

Christmas Day on the latest GFS looks interesting for snow lovers (the period has some support for a 'cold spell' so it cannot be discounted). The secondary low would cause a snowfall strikingly similar to last years Boxing Day snow, which came out the blue and I feel this is definitely possible this year. Somethin' for coldies to look out for even for southern peeps.

Warmest it's been all day 14C!! it's getting ridiculous thoroughly depressing weather and I crave an alternative. Snow and chilly temperatures 300 miles north a huge contrast to what's going on here. Time to delve into the MOD thread..

insanely jealous looks like a winter wonderland! Plenty more to come.