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randomwalk

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Everything posted by randomwalk

  1. randomwalk
    euro 04 suggests that north downs will get 15-20 cm. and other places too. why no warning?
  2. randomwalk
    circulation south of cornwall shows on radar and winds around cornwall. won't this enhance snow in southwest and weaken precipitation on front to east.
  3. randomwalk
    the gfs 0.5 shows about 30mm of precipitation falling sunday/tuesday at grid point near to brighton on the south coast. South Downs anyone?
  4. randomwalk
    follow the flow the atlantic gets in via gilbraltar, Italy, Germany, low countries and in the back door. What a devious play.
  5. randomwalk
    cold pool being throttled by warm air by monday, the pace of this is astounding
  6. randomwalk
    Look at the precipitation on the gfs approaching from the east; is this the upper trough that the meto/ecm has recently picked up.
  7. randomwalk
    I am looking for a reason to explain the difference in interpretation between the professionals and some of the leading lights on the forum.So these show extremely limited convection with a low level inversion and very dry air above. If these forecast tephis turn out to be correct there will be nothing but v light showers as JH for one, has also been pointing out for some time. Some of the other posters say that with a wind in this direction and with forecast wind speed and the forecast uppers they will be astonished if there is not significant snowfall in the south east. Some of these seem to be implying convection potency from the upper temp charts. Now I am sure that with identical pressure charts in the past there has been significant snow fall, but I am equally sure there are occasions that have been dry. The difference might be explained by the upper air profiles. If the 850s are very low but the 1000-500 thickness is just so-so then surely the 1000-850 thickness is not going to be that special; the really cold air is shallow. On the other hand if 850s were -6 and the 1000-500 thickness was slightly lower, the depth of the cold air would clearly be much greater.The former case is very cold dry weather as forecast; the latter is possibly one of those "i remember when 850s were only -5 and we had a foot of snow from showers/streamers etc occasions that some of us fondly remember" To try and demonstrate the case it would be grate if someone could dig up a tephi ascent from one of those recent heavy easterly snowfall events, like the surrey/south eas t event of late november 2009 or 2010. I've of course no idea whether the forecast tephigrams are correct or could be subject to change but must admit I'm intrigued by the concept of launching a balloon 4 days into the future and sending the results back to present! regards to all
  8. randomwalk
    not as many times as we read that there will be snowfalls everywhere only to see it dry!!
  9. randomwalk
    Sounds like a very good steer to me This logic seems to imply then that forecasting 500mb charts is easier/more reliable and hence less volatile than the surface pressure equivalents. Anomalies are presumably forecast heights compared to long term averages. Yourself and JH for example are clear advocates of this approach. Some of us, well me at least , would like to know why, i.e. what is it that makes it so much better. I would be grateful to hear your thoughts.
  10. randomwalk
    i.e ian if you were given a free hand you would side with with Steve Murr rather than the Met Office with their flawed models and in built biases towards what they see as the most likely outcomes?!?
  11. randomwalk
    doesn't a streamer need convection?
  12. randomwalk
    bbc forecast animation on the f/c just shown had a lot more significant white shading kent, london, just north and south of london in particular between 8pm and around 3 am
  13. randomwalk
    are you standing on your head?
  14. randomwalk
    a slow burner this one in banstead, started light but has gradually increased in intensity, last hour fairly heavy around 7cm.
  15. randomwalk
    48 hour accumulated precip suggests a stalled front -man above is right
  16. randomwalk
    Hi Steve, why do we get that intensification of snowfall overnight fri/sat in the se? any theories?
  17. randomwalk
    i read mods as 'models' - if its modifications its different, but which is it?!
  18. randomwalk
    Ian has said the Chief is sticking with the NAE, suggest we look at that.....its completely different to the raw output isn't it?
  19. randomwalk
    Now snowing again Banstead, N Downs; moderate, temp has dropped a degree to 0. Think the warmest air may have passed
  20. randomwalk
    north downs near epsom, snowing for 1 1/2 hours with moderate bursts but despite being at 500 feet no significant settling, too much warmth mixed in i'm afraid.
  21. randomwalk
    light snow, North Downs near Epsom
  22. randomwalk
    if you look at the 0.5 resolution it shows practically all rain in the south unfortunately -hopefully this is less reliable than the main model but that does seem counterintuitive?
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