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Racing Green

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Posts posted by Racing Green

  1. 3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    The interaction of the Iberian low with the Atlantic jet continues to cause a lot of problems either for the modelling or for those seeking a swift return to cold conditions after a blip Mon-Tue, which seems to have fallen off the table (but can't yet be binned).

    For a time we see the possible longer-term benefits being hinted at as the broad trough W of Europe supports height rises to our NW... but then we start to see lows drifting N/NE from the trough and this is where my dubious alarm goes off given the MJO forcing that looks almost ideal for shutting off any path in that direction.

    Uet given that the models have actually trended in the wrong direction today there must be something else at play. Maybe the unusually vigorous tropical signals are causing unstable model progressions that can't be trusted - that would explain the Met Office outlook not yet changing. Or perhaps the deep Iberian low is so unusual that outcomes which are usually illogical actually become possible... as you can probably tell I'm reaching far and wide for possible explanations to help me keep my faith in the background signals pulling through. I'm not quite as able to distance myself from the model madness as Tamara is - much to my own cost!

     

    I'll politely ask if I may, what are your thoughts on the direction of the Iberian low over the weekend? 

  2. 1 minute ago, Singularity said:

    Either the whole thing (lower probability) or a secondary low developing and splitting away from it. A very uncertain situation though! Sort of hopecasting I must admit :ninja:

    Thanks. As opposed to the current situation of sliding down the coast of Portugal, whats to stop the models sending it more-so through Spain and into the western Med? I can't help but think this can't be ruled out.

    • Like 1
  3. 4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    GFS is depending on a circumstantial alignment of the flow that brings air our way that has passed over the Alps and undergone adiabatic warming. As far as I can see, a direct import from the Med. still doesn't make it east of western France. 

    One thing I have found a bit odd, though, is that while the upper flow is as described above hence the warm air import aloft, the surface flow is much more toward easterly so you'd think we'd stay chilly given the feed from out east where the colder air remains in place. Could there be mixing down of the less cold air from above?

    In any case it remains a highly unusual situation and perhaps an unprecedented way to interrupt a mid-February cold spell. I remain suspicious of the idea that the Iberian low will lift slowly NW, as this is the ideal path we often see in summer plume scenarios, only for the low to actually break down with a secondary feature heading NE and cutting off the flow. Given the blocking in the way I guess such a feature would try to move east early next week... or just get stuck in place. Either way, the long-draw SE'rly upper flow could be disrupted.

    We can only wait and see, and even with a notable milder interlude the odds remain stacked in favour of a wedge of higher heights moving to our NW and ushering in an E to NE or even N flow before long - regardless of what some of the supercomputers are outputting.

    So I understand what you mean, are you suggesting that the low over Iberia could track somewhat more easterly than is currently being shown?

  4. Could anyone who is experienced at reading charts give me there interpretation for the Canaries from Saturday 11th onwards? Normal NE'ly winds would be most welcome...don't want any storms disrupting my holiday! :)

    Long-range forecast doesn't look good!

  5. Just for the record, with regard to the Mega low everyone has picked up around 144hrs;

    There is currently a 948mb Low sat in the Atlantic, and its doing sod all in terms of removing the cold.

    h850t850eu.png

    I still dont buy a SW'rly breakdown next Thursday, I said it earlier and was accused at clutching at straws, but the 18z has indicated a little more potential for cold prelonging.

    This time tomorrow im hoping to read poeple saying the that ''The models had a wobble yesterday, but it seems the cold is here to stay''

    Exactly, there's enough in the models to suggest as much. Mother Nature hasn't even decided if the cold is here to stay yet, but some on here have already made their mind up.

  6. How is the depth looking in Nottingham? We seem to have a bit of a microclimate in among this group of buildings and from what I can see there is only a thin dusting. People in Notts seem to be getting a bit excited so I guess there is more than what I can see.

    Nottingham has a slight urban heat island effect and its quite noticable in cold weather like this when driving from one side to the other. Its usually 2-3'C warmer in the city centre than on the far outskirts. Plus you're unlikely to see lying snow on roads/paths there due to the sheer amount of traffic and copious amounts of salt the council have spread recently.

  7. Moderate snow in Wilford (1 mile south of Nottingham City Centre) for the last hour or so but the skies are starting to brighten. Has dusted the pavements and rooftops slowly turning into 1-2 centimeter accumulations now.

    If the skies are brightening it's only a thin patch...

    http://www.metoffice...-1.29&lat=52.99

    meanwhile its still coming down in bucket loads in Heanor. Thicker and thicker blowing around.

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