Racing Green
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Is it me or is the GFS sending the Iberian low back to Europe on Saturday?
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1 minute ago, Singularity said:
Either the whole thing (lower probability) or a secondary low developing and splitting away from it. A very uncertain situation though! Sort of hopecasting I must admit
Thanks. As opposed to the current situation of sliding down the coast of Portugal, whats to stop the models sending it more-so through Spain and into the western Med? I can't help but think this can't be ruled out.
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4 minutes ago, Singularity said:
GFS is depending on a circumstantial alignment of the flow that brings air our way that has passed over the Alps and undergone adiabatic warming. As far as I can see, a direct import from the Med. still doesn't make it east of western France.
One thing I have found a bit odd, though, is that while the upper flow is as described above hence the warm air import aloft, the surface flow is much more toward easterly so you'd think we'd stay chilly given the feed from out east where the colder air remains in place. Could there be mixing down of the less cold air from above?
In any case it remains a highly unusual situation and perhaps an unprecedented way to interrupt a mid-February cold spell. I remain suspicious of the idea that the Iberian low will lift slowly NW, as this is the ideal path we often see in summer plume scenarios, only for the low to actually break down with a secondary feature heading NE and cutting off the flow. Given the blocking in the way I guess such a feature would try to move east early next week... or just get stuck in place. Either way, the long-draw SE'rly upper flow could be disrupted.
We can only wait and see, and even with a notable milder interlude the odds remain stacked in favour of a wedge of higher heights moving to our NW and ushering in an E to NE or even N flow before long - regardless of what some of the supercomputers are outputting.
So I understand what you mean, are you suggesting that the low over Iberia could track somewhat more easterly than is currently being shown?
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Excuse the basic nature of the questioning, but is the basic set up for the weekend coming locked in now?
We have the low that moves from Biscay all the way down past Madeira between Friday and Sunday, with the Azores high out halfway to Bermuda. I can't help but think theres more to develop in this respect.
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That low makes it as far as the Algarve and just stops on Saturday...
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Where's that low west of Portugal heading after day 6?
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Could anyone who is experienced at reading charts give me there interpretation for the Canaries from Saturday 11th onwards? Normal NE'ly winds would be most welcome...don't want any storms disrupting my holiday!
Long-range forecast doesn't look good!
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Los Gigantes, Tenerife - Currently 22'C with sunshine and patchy cloud, light breeze.
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I'm an interested weather observer, although not a forecaster myself.
The better half and I are off to Jersey for 5 days from this Sunday. Could anyone give me an idea of how the forecast is panning out for next week?Many thanks
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Would somebody better qualified than me give me their assessment of the weather likely in southern Lanzarote last week in August?
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Nottingham being almost completely missed so far today!
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Just for the record, with regard to the Mega low everyone has picked up around 144hrs;
There is currently a 948mb Low sat in the Atlantic, and its doing sod all in terms of removing the cold.
I still dont buy a SW'rly breakdown next Thursday, I said it earlier and was accused at clutching at straws, but the 18z has indicated a little more potential for cold prelonging.
This time tomorrow im hoping to read poeple saying the that ''The models had a wobble yesterday, but it seems the cold is here to stay''
Exactly, there's enough in the models to suggest as much. Mother Nature hasn't even decided if the cold is here to stay yet, but some on here have already made their mind up.
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How is the depth looking in Nottingham? We seem to have a bit of a microclimate in among this group of buildings and from what I can see there is only a thin dusting. People in Notts seem to be getting a bit excited so I guess there is more than what I can see.
Nottingham has a slight urban heat island effect and its quite noticable in cold weather like this when driving from one side to the other. Its usually 2-3'C warmer in the city centre than on the far outskirts. Plus you're unlikely to see lying snow on roads/paths there due to the sheer amount of traffic and copious amounts of salt the council have spread recently.
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Still hammering it down in Heanor. Thicker and thinner then thicker again. Cars covered, settling on the roads.
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Moderate snow in Wilford (1 mile south of Nottingham City Centre) for the last hour or so but the skies are starting to brighten. Has dusted the pavements and rooftops slowly turning into 1-2 centimeter accumulations now.
If the skies are brightening it's only a thin patch...
http://www.metoffice...-1.29&lat=52.99
meanwhile its still coming down in bucket loads in Heanor. Thicker and thicker blowing around.
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Getting thicker and thicker in Heanor. Some substantial accumulations building up here..
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Next few radar runs will be of keen interest... pretty progressive weakening of the band now becoming apparent on the Western flank.
Still going strong in and upstream of the East Midlands.
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More and more falling here in Heanor. Small flakes but the air is white with it.
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Thick heavy snow in Heanor, not huge flakes but hacking it down and settling.
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Going good guns in heanor - car windscreens covered.
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Radar shows the weather has just pivoted slightly anti-clockwise, the centre-point seems to be around EMA by the looks of it. Derby/Nottingham definitely look to be in the firing line for this afternoon as things stand.
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It MAY have arrived in Heanor. Light snow and picking up all the time.
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need this to happen otherwise I think we will just have to write off today for Nottingham, it was so close as well
On the BBC forecast map this morning this is pretty much how it showed the day panning out, it then went on to give sporadic snow for the East Midlands this afternoon. Radar matching the forecast at the moment.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/carrington#?tab=fiveDay
Issued only an hour ago.
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Thin snow again in Heanor and intensifying.
Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I'll politely ask if I may, what are your thoughts on the direction of the Iberian low over the weekend?