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Quicksilver1989 last won the day on July 4 2018

Quicksilver1989 had the most liked content!

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About Quicksilver1989

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    The objective coldie.

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    Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers

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  1. When I read that the other day I thought it sounded like a retirement speech. He's won so many titles now I wouldn't be surprised if he did though he will probably want to beat Schumacher's records.
  2. I'm afraid you are getting natural climate change and anthropogenic climate change mixed up. The latter is in a different league and is taking place compared to the former which is driven by Milankovitch cycles and takes place over thousands of years. Anyway, that's the last from me as these threads go round in the same old circles whenever an XR protest pops up. Think derogatory words are going to stop them? The planet is only going to keep getting warmer, whether you like it or not... unless changes in current policies will take place.
  3. Maybe this video will snap some sense into you. It's easy to brand them 'eco warriors' but when weighing up what is at stake here can you blame them? Some stern words that would apply to a few people on here.
  4. I reckon the CET will finish on 14.0C at the end of the month after corrections
  5. Recent model runs (especially the GFS, the hurricane has been there on the last 4 runs at least) have been particularly bullish about developing a hurricane in the tropical North Atlantic and maintaining some strength towards the Azores.... which is a bit unusual given this is quite a long time away. Given models often underestimate the strength of hurricanes I think this may be worth watching. The 06z resembles a similar pattern to Ophelia in October 2017 though as the recent model output uncertainty with a northerly has shown, any option for T192-T240 should be taken with a large pinch of salt.
  6. Geez if there is a shallow cold pool to our NE causing such an argument in September then how bad will things get if there is a deep cold pool to our NE in December? The cold pool to our NE has been developing as a result of the high pressure cell over the UK which has encouraged the movement of cool uppers from the Arctic over this region.. As this backs east the UK gets a warm southerly and this looks like pumping up warm air all towards Greenland. The knock effect of this is a developing high pressure cell to our north which would support the movement of those colder uppers westwards. However a lot of uncertainty up until then and I suspect Hurricane Jerry may have a big say on what kind of pattern transpires if it recurves in the North Atlantic basin.
  7. It's the kind of comments we get every winter and people never learn, I'd also say for anyone new to this that anything after T240 is likely to be too flat or amplified as the models go too far with a signal. Persistent patterns around T240 are worth a raised eyebrow. No snowy scenario should be confirmed until T96-T120 unless there is total agreement. Background signals will rightly be discussed at length but these are also subject to huge uncertainty so it's easy to get carried away. Next week has been rather interesting to watch as the models have occasionally gone for a cool northerly clipping the east coast but have dropped this numerous times and pushed it further east. Contrast the ECM and latest GFS next Wednesday for example: Given that the output for today also had cooler uppers shunted away closer to the time I think next week will see the same. Minima may be a bit cooler at this time of the year though underneath that high.
  8. Lol I don't think so either, it's a moved aimed at encouraging a younger age group to join later on... as I say though not sure it will work...
  9. Who knows... I'm not sure if changing fireman Sam will lead to more female firefighters to make up for the current staff shortages lol...... but can't blame them for trying. I'm just surprised there has been such a big reaction to the change! haha
  10. By the fire chiefs looking to hire more firefighters. As of 2017, only 5.2% of firefighters were female so they saw that as a potential area to improve upon for recruitment. Therefore they decided to change the mascot to try and change things in the long run. Don't see why people are kicking off about it so much, Piers Morgan wanted the fire chief to be sacked!
  11. Not sure why people are kicking off about fireman Sam going, it's quite lame that they are moaning about it... Piers Morgan sounded like an idiot when ranting about it this morning (and surely that would resemble a 'snowflake'). Is it not possible to change a character aimed as a children's show? It's just that they wanted something else and thought Fireman Sam was dated, big deal... lol.
  12. Probably goes to show how uncertain the forecasting is, given the initial data assimilated into the model from this run gives an entirely different result. I wouldn't read much into it, clearly something has been picked up on that favours a mild atmospheric circulation pattern but how much can that change closer to the time? If I recall it showed a very negative AO/NAO pattern in the build up to winters 2013/14 and 2018/19 so some busts there. Although for other winters the forecasts were good.
  13. Good grief, it seems as though someone was threatening to sack meteorologists to try and cover Trumps back after he kept stating Hurricane Dorian would hit Alabama using a 6 day old forecast map modified with a sharpie... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49642658 'Agree with me, not with what the forecasts say or else, regardless of the dangers involved, can't make our president look bad'. Staggering how people as incompetent as this end up in top jobs. Dorian was nowhere near to hitting Alabama and the models switched to a path along the East coast well in advance, what if meteorologists were forced to say it was heading to Alabama and those in the Carolina's got hit by a Cat 4 hurricane? It weakened to a Cat 2 but its still madness.
  14. Yes but they had a sample size of 36 and a correlation of 0.92. A correlation that high over a small time period to me looks very suspicious, not least because there aren't any clear cut links between the variables they include (for example what is the degree of influence from solar activity when combined with other factors? there is lMO some sort of link but how does that emerge when other things are at play). It's not like the GhG effect where we know there is a proven link, so a correlation that high is likely to be due to overfitting due to too many parameters. Throwing in lots of variables whether they are influential or not will very likely produce a strong relationship... regardless of whether they actually have an effect on synoptics. A sample size of 36 winters simply isn't enough. Why didn't they go back to the 1950s? Probably because their model performs poorly during that decade. The fact that we have barely heard from it since winter 2014/15 indicates that the creator of the index may have thrown in the towel as well. The biggest advance in forecasting in the last 15-20 years IMO is from predicting the likelihood of stratospheric warming events, although as we saw with last year if the vortex falls in the wrong place it really works against us.
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