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About Quicksilver1989

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    Shameless liberal snowflake :)

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    Masters graduate in climatology, I love the fascinating unpredictability of the UK climate! Especially if it means snow or thunderstorms (or weather that is actually interesting)
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers

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  1. Whereas in recent days I was doubtful of storm potential, things now appear to be setting up nicely on Sunday. Difficult to pinpoint exactly where, however with a cyclonic flow across the UK on Sunday, SLP below 1012mb, high humidity, warmth at the surface and cooler air progressing aloft a lot of ingredients are there IMO. Also there may be a chance of storms crossing the channel on Saturday night into southern parts so worth keeping an eye on. Quite a remarkable spell for late April, however cooler westerlies look likely to develop early next week.
  2. I'm not sure about the NMM, we have a good deal of warmth and some higher dewpoints however. In terms of too stable perhaps I described it a bit wrongly. For storms to form on a more widespread basis I generally look for SLP below 1015mb and for later this week it looks to high, anticyclonic motion is too strong so I think we would need storms to come up from France. Thunderstorms would still form over the UK I think but would be isolated rather then widespread. Early on next week however looks promising if the 00z were to materialise. The ECM still isn't keen on storm development with low CAPE values. However decent storms in April are still possible. I remember the latter part of April 2008 had good storms in NE England, so I may be wrong.
  3. Looking at the output this morning you have to wonder whether some places will see their first thunderstorms this year. Conditions look favourable over northern france for storm development. IMO the atmosphere looks too stable here but we may get lucky and see some cross the channel. Late next weekend into early next week looks more likely for home grown storms if the 00z GFS is to be believed. However GFS has a tendancy to overdo CAPE. Either way its looking notably warm for mid April and very summer like. Hopefully not too hot for the London marathon on Sunday. PS I think ANYWEATHER is getting confused between weather and climate yet again. I will just leave it at that...
  4. Sorry I haven't been able to contribute as I have been busy in Vienna but wow! what a set of charts to greet my return back to the UK on Sunday. The trigger for this cold is the release of a deep cold pool of air over N America into the Atlantic which encourages a deep Atlantic low and helps whip up some warm southerlies. Then we probably get the best pattern for April with warm southerlies and a high to our east. Temperatures probably getting into the early mid 20s for quite a few. It could last quite a while too! but when it does end, fingers crossed its a plume! I do enjoy this time of year, warm spells can deliver some pretty potent storms and it doesn't usually feel too uncomfortable as minima can still drop at night. Bring it on.
  5. The T144 is fantastic if it sustained warmth you are looking for. A very slack pattern with that low to the west of Spain potentially getting stuck and bringing up more warm air.
  6. Swingometers updated and as people probably suspect a flip has taken place to milder solutions - Chances are high of a warm southerly to end this week now - However this warmth may not reach far northern parts - Low pressure is never far away, lets hope it stays out west. - The warmth may be transient. An increase in the number of mild members was apparent in previous runs though that has eased off for the time being. - Temperatures may well get into the 20's in favoured spots though the warm air doesn't look quite so strong compared to earlier runs. Far better then the weather we have had this bank holiday though!
  7. Swingometers for the 12z are interesting A welcome retreat from cyclonic weather may be a possibility next weekend as the low pressure on quite a few members has been shunted a bit further west leaving the UK in warmer air. Not clear cut by any means though. That high over the Med will really improve our chances of a warm April, especially if we see low pressure persisting to our south too. Fingers crossed the GFS is onto something. Long term no obvious trend yet still.
  8. I think I will go for a CET estimate of 6.7C
  9. Swingometer updates Not much has changed in the forecasts since midday yesterday when looking at the ensembles on the whole: - Another cyclonic start to next weekend looking increasingly likely - Many of these show a big clash in airmasses, quite the temperature gradient - If we get lucky a high may sit over us. Although we would be in the cold air we need some dry weather. Yesterday saw 50mm of rain here in Southampton alone! - No obvious trend in mid April yet, it was looking as though it could turn notably warm yesterday perhaps. That signal has now faded somewhat. - It would be great if the ECM occurred but I think it went off on one!
  10. There is a theme of height rises over Scandi perhaps but it may not be too settled if the Atlantic is coming against it. I'd say a weak theme for high pressure towards mid-April based on the ensemble swingometers. I'm not sure if the mean is helpful sometimes as a few extreme ensemble members can skew things. Its best to look at what each one is showing and tally them up. It will be more settled, though it can't get any more unsettled then what it is now! A transient ridge into the second week of April would be nice but can it hold off the Atlantic?
  11. Swingometers update - Still the models are uncertain about early next week! The GFS is indicating that snow may be restricted to the NW on higher ground. - All GFS members now have milder air over much of the UK on Tuesday but a very unsettled picture - However other recent model output is still varying from this to some extent - A clear trend for the cyclonic picture to carry on through the first week of April, however these trends can flip, I hope they do.... - No trend as of yet into mid April, anything is a possibility at this point.
  12. Pretty awful 18z, just a conveyer belt of low pressure systems heading to the UK.... one after the other. I'd rather stay on the cold side UK wise, it would at least be drier. If we then get a build of pressure it wouldn't take long to warm up at this time of the year. Increasing signs however that next week will be dominated by yet more cyclonic weather.
  13. Time for some swingometer updates. The previous one for March 31st is now settled. However some notes about the weekend. - Persistence of cold seems to be linked to how far south the cold air gets on Sunday, with a couple of runs delaying the onset of milder air until Tuesday. The majority see the battleground scenario occuring on Monday. - A small number of runs keep the UK cold though I reckon the odds on this are pretty low now. Looking further ahead - A trend has started to emerge on the 7th of a cyclonic picture returning or persisting so rainfall aplenty it seems however it is only a vague one at this point. - There was a fair few members going for a Spanish plume like setup! That seems to have vanished on the 12z with notably more colder members - Looking to mid April an anticyclonic signal was there at this early stage, its less clear now though. - An increase in warmer runs but that shouldn't be too surprising given we usually see warmer weather as the month goes on!
  14. Isn't that like saying you are delighted you lost a football game 4-0 because its one better then losing 5-0 in the last game? Aren't those charts just comparing day 7 temperature to day 1? You would expect it to show red during April is that is the case. FWIW I want spring warmth now but I don't want to see any more rain, we have had enough of it in recent weeks. If we can't get a decent spell of warmth then I'd rather see some cold dry weather instead because it would still feel nice during the day.
  15. I think the thing that has struck me most in recent days is that the models seem to be really underestimating the block to the NW, if the cold air wins out it would be interesting to see where the CET ends up after week 1... Some of the 06z members didn't even have the warmer air make any inroads on Monday and disrupted the low and sent it through the channel instead...