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About Quicksilver1989

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    The objective coldie.

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    PhD student in climatology, I love the fascinating unpredictability of the UK climate! Especially if it means snow or thunderstorms (or weather that is actually interesting)
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    Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers

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  1. Maybe some storms clipping the SE but not much instability elsewhere. Compared to earlier output Harry has a point. I don't think the upgrade to the GFS is responsible for it. Here is the 12z compared to last nights 18z.
  2. It does closely resemble what we saw on 2nd of June with the plume being whisked away too quickly so there is a risk it could be a bust. Plumes rarely ever get corrected westwards but the ECM 00z looked better.
  3. Turning very dark here in Hull with some distant rumbles of thunder.
  4. Morning I see the 06z GFS has started to suddenly downgrade its CAPE values for Wednesday in typical fashion. Though this is partly due to the fact that the warm air from the south only clips the SE. Quite an uneventful run if it came into fruition with the most notable thing probably being some low minima values. The run is quite dry as the below chart shows with the rainfall totals being bumped up by Wednesday's low. Overall I'd give the 06z GFS a 6 out of 10. The 00z ECM however is more interesting as it is a bit warmer on Wednesday and then later on another pulse of warm air from the south. Though that is some distance away. The most noteworthy chart goes to the GFS below. 25C+ 850hpa over Austria, imagine the storms and rainfall totals from that low...
  5. But the point is that some people were posting the summer was going to be awful before it had even started! People were pointing the output this week looks really bad (in fact I alluded to the fact we may break some maxima records in a post). However anything in the model output more then a week away is subject to sudden changes at this time of the year when atmospheric circulation patterns are much flatter. Just compare the two charts to see what I mean. That zonal rut would be tough to get out of due to the large scale steering currents. Yet the chart for next week shows a lack of any major steering currents. This week could easily have seen the high sink a bit more and have kept the majority of rain over the continent. The fact is that the extended model output has shown anything from heatwaves to washouts so far this summer so taking it as gospel is wrong. In a nutshell the model output shows across England: Saturday: 16C - 20C, fine sunny morning away from the SW, heavy showers later Sunday: 16-21C, fine morning, heavy showers again later Monday: 17C-22C, scattered showers in the afternoon Tuesday: 19-24C, hazy sunshine Wednesday: 18-25C, scattered thunderstorms, heavy rain in the far north - humid Thursday: 18-22C, thundery showers in the south, scattered showers towards the east Friday: 17C-22C, some heavier afternoon showers in the SE again, scattered elsewhere Saturday: 16C-21C, generally sunny with maybe a few heavier showers over East Anglia Hardly awful as I say and as the below charts show how its foolish to take northern blocking in the extended time range and treat it as gospel, the 00z and 06z for the same time are a lot different. To those who complain about the ciriticism, knocker and others spend a lot of time going through synoptic charts. If someone then posts a sweeping statement underneath it should be called out. I could post as many synoptic charts as I could like but others already do a great job.
  6. But I could say July will be full of Northern Blocking... doesn't mean anything if there is no predictive skill. Besides northern blocking doesn't equate to writing off a Summer, I'd say this chart has a stronger northern block then the ones you posted. Didn't turn out too badly did it? The fact is that the next week in the model output doesn't look awful so it needs clarifying for those members who are browsing the thread and haven't seen the model output themselves. We have had 7 days of bad weather but the preceding days this June weren't that bad away from the NW and next week is looking reasonable.
  7. Oh my Lord, another overreaction to the model output, yes the 00z's aren't anything to write home about but they aren't awful either.... For England and Wales, sunshine and showers sums up the weekend, turning lighter and less frequent by Monday. Dry Tuesday, thunderstorms Wednesday, scattered showers Thursday, most areas sunny on Friday and fine for most of Saturday till some rain from France moves north later. Anything after 7 or so days in Summer should be taken with a pinch of salt which takes us into the last 10 days of June?
  8. 2012 was consistently miserable until early August though whilst this June has seen the rainfall totals bumped up by an exceptionally wet week across England and Wales. A broken clock strikes right twice a day so I don't think anyone can take plaudits for these predictions when there is no predictive skill. If we see consistently low maxima and persistent wet weather till late July then the comparisons to 2007 and 2012 can be justified however one swallow doesn't make a summer. GFS overestimates these but worth keeping an eye on this. I don't think there is much 'shannon entropy' about next week as the models have been fairly consistent. Not much in the way of rainy days next week with the exception of Wednesday which I've been keeping my eye on for a bit now. Some thundery potential for parts of England and some of these could bring high rainfall totals. High pressure signal for the weekend after next but that is where uncertainty begins to kick in.
  9. Yes I think one or two people define good summer weather as 38.5C+ and set their standards far too high. Saying the GFS 12z is a disaster is fake news really. It looks like standard June fare with the odd warmer day. Not being glass half full, just realistic in the context of UK summer climate.
  10. People are extrapolating a poor week of weather it seems onto the rest of the summer and losing sense of rationality. Or they aren't paying any attention to the model output. Next week looks average temperature wise and the northern blocking is waning with some high pressure later, anything after that is pure speculation.
  11. They have just rolled out the new version of the GFS which is causing an issue with the anomalies based off that product. http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate
  12. Edit: Sorry my last post was wrong as some of the provisional CET values can be changed during the month, yesterday had a CET value of 10.5C
  13. Music for headphones, amazing how such a simple track can be so good.
  14. Wonder where ANYWEATHER is?, the 06z GFS is his kind of run Can't be denied that it is a poor run with one or two exceptionally cold days thrown in there, especially next Sunday which would probably threaten a few local maxima records for that date The 13th looks like a poor day too and although a bit far out this is getting closer to the reliable... One straw to clutch is that a high to the north is often poorly modelled and this could easily just sink over the UK instead So I think besides those opening two days the first half of June looks pretty lacklustre but heatwaves can pop up at very short notice at this time of the year so there is still no way we can write off summer yet and compare it to 2007 or 2012. A fair few of the Junes in the 1990s were stinkers but delivered some good heat later (e.g. 1990 and 1997) so no need to panic at this point. It seems that all the heat that is usually over Spain is either being bottled up over Africa whilst low pressure over our part of Europe is encouraging heat over SE Europe for now.
  15. If the GFS 06z came off, I'd estimate a CET of 12.5C by the 23rd
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