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Quicksilver1989

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Quicksilver1989 last won the day on July 4 2018

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About Quicksilver1989

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    Shameless liberal snowflake :), the objective coldie

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Hull
  • Interests
    Masters graduate in climatology, I love the fascinating unpredictability of the UK climate! Especially if it means snow or thunderstorms (or weather that is actually interesting)
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers

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  1. Swingometers have been more volatile then the stock markets recently, almost all the ensembles go for a mild January 25th now, no easterly in sight. Remarkable... this swingometer is definitely for the archives and one to use for future reference. Luckily further out many runs are still looking very cold to end the month. P9 has a deep cold pool on our doorstep and a snowy area of low pressure. So the easterly isn't too be but perhaps we don't have to wait too long for a shot at something colder.
  2. Well this mornings output suggests that unless there is some utterly spectacular turnaround, an easterly is off the table for now. In fact the 06z swingometers suggest the 25th of January may be quite mild. One exception is P18 but that is the only exception. Longer term though the cold signal is building still and unlike the whole easterly saga this hasn't been out of the blue, suggesting some persistent background signal may be driving it (rather than a volatile and unpredictable signal). Most seem to be getting their cold pool in from a Euro trough rather then some strong northern blocking. P1 has a cold arctic airmass waiting in its wings. Lets hope the Atlantic doesn't fire up from the NE Canada cold pool, its remarkable how far back that cold pool has been pushed back east.
  3. Well another day and another change... I call them the swingometers for a reason The 06z swingometers show a complete flip for January 25th and it now actually may become a mild day after all those runs showing an easterly yesterday. A very small number now show a very cold, snowy pattern that was in abundance yesterday. The problem lies with how the low dives across the UK and sets up shop over Italy. The low is nowhere near as deep this morning and therefore little cold is advected eastwards to Europe. The other key is the Azores high which needs to hold back or move across to Scandi quickly. P10 gives us a straw to clutch but mild / anticyclonic has switched to being the form horse this morning. For the end of the month still plenty of cold runs in there but it feels like chasing rainbows at this stage doesn't it? The control has a second go at a similar cold spell to that being modelled yesterday later on. The global temperature anomaly plot is a picture in itself. The only area of above average temperatures in Europe is....
  4. 12z swingometers show no change from the 06z, 25th of January looks just as likely to be cold, still some easterlies in there but more are N/NE winds. Then for the end of the month a bit less blocked but this is still some time away and its more general trends that matter at this point.
  5. The return of storm Emma, haha but with less cold uppers. On the flipside the Greenland high may keep the colder air pushing south
  6. Warm air from Africa coming up against the cold air over the continent helping the low rapidly deepen. 12z GFS is looking good with that low to the west remaining on a southerly track.
  7. Stunning chart, deep low exactly where we want it and if the high pressure moves to Scandi we can really tap into that cold for good, fantastic stuff.
  8. Quicksilver1989

    Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    I presume through the evening dew points and temperatures will drop a little further as well. Don't expect the snow to stick here but it should be quite nice and seasonal. GFS goes for a lot of the precipitation tonight / into tomorrow to fall as snow so maybe things are indeed a bit more favourable then predicted.
  9. Morning people, it looks as though we have had another very good morning for coldies. The 06z swingometers for the 25th of January are now swinging towards very cold. These are in the majority now so I'm becoming increasingly confident we will see a good cold spell before the month ends. A few easterlies in there but some actually develop a block to the W/NW instead so we get arctic rather then continental cold. P5 is keen to get going and then also develops a deeper cold spell later. It seems that almost all routes lead to cold as a very cold signal has persisted for the end of January for some time now. P9 is one of the few runs that fails to get any decent cold by January 25th only for a second bite of the cherry later. The global temperature anomaly plot looks interesting too. Looks like the Alps may get some huge falls of snow with that temperature gradient. Good to see Greenland above average too. Cold air over NE Canada threatens to spill into the NW Atlantic but we may have a Scandi or Greenland high to fight our corner. The UK remains cold. Also the heatwave in Australia continues....
  10. The 12z GFS swingometer remains extremely uncertain for January 25th, a lot more mild runs in the most recent set. Just as a colder consensus was emerging this morning! For the end of January the number of blocked runs remains similar however That diving trough is playing absolute havoc at the moment!
  11. Quicksilver1989

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    Sometimes I find these updates run a bit behind the trends of the models sometimes. I remember the beast from the east updates they were going for the extended deep cold for a bit of a while after the GFS hinted it would break down in early March.
  12. Well... hello to everyone on this rather crisp sunny day Interesting morning eh? The first OP of the year that falls into the narnia swingometer category. What a beauty and it would mean the CET of the last week of January would be ~-2.5C. Is it a cold outlier however? The picture for January 25th is STILL unclear. The diving area of low pressure is absolutely key as to what transpires. Quite a lot of the coldest runs have an antiyclone over the UK and it seems the slightly more likely option for now. More runs needed (yet again). Still quite a few Atlantic based runs in there but also some good runs too to keep up the hope. For the end of the month more blocked runs appearing. The OP takes the star prize this time round. Looking at the global temperature anomalies look very sweet indeed, the cold pool over NE Canada shunted away from the North Atlantic and a nice cold pool to our east. I still urge caution at this point but given the OP is showing this cold run and the 00z's were also good you can't help but feel something may be brewing. That diving low over the UK between Jan 20th-25th is hugely important though.
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