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Quicksilver1989

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Quicksilver1989 last won the day on July 4

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About Quicksilver1989

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    Shameless liberal snowflake :)

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Southampton
  • Interests
    Masters graduate in climatology, I love the fascinating unpredictability of the UK climate! Especially if it means snow or thunderstorms (or weather that is actually interesting)
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers

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  1. They certainly made their presence felt here....
  2. Distant murmurs of thunder and rapidly darkening clouds to my west. Judging by the rainfall radar to my west we are in for quite the downpour and some lightning too! Who needs plumes eh? haha
  3. Contrary to the posts above we had heavy rain in Southampton but it only lasted 10 mins
  4. Interesting looking at the lightning and rainfall radars, is all the unstable area extending out a bit further west? Some crud now passing over Southampton with some rather dark clouds but nothing dramatic. The storms over NW France don't look too bad however....
  5. Its not unusual for warm conditions to continue well into Autumn after a hot summer. 1959 is probably the best example but 1995 also had that great October and 2006 was remarkably warm during September and October. Though any signal for a return to heatwave conditions should be taken with a pinch of salt at the moment, I can see how if an active Atlantic jet emerges over the next week with troughing favoured to our west, it may well allow for pressure to build over Scandinavia again. The 06z shows this in 10 days time but expect a bit of chopping and changing over the next few days before a clear signal emerges. Interesting Arctic sea ice was mentioned as this along with Atlantic SST patterns are what really catch my eye. The current arctic sea ice chart is interesting, if not rather depressing. It looks as though extent and volume is really struggling on the Siberian side. I think a year similar to 2007 or 2012 could be on the cards, both of which had Autumns containing their fair share of northern blocking. If the arctic is much warmer then normal because of low sea ice then it makes sense that the jet may slow down. One of its drivers is the temperature gradient from the mid-latitudes and the arctic which will be reduced. Therefore patterns may get stuck for longer though this ain't a guarantee of heat, if troughing is encouraged over the UK... well that could turn out quite miserable. If it was favoured further west you could see how this may result in more persistent southerlies. Also bear in mind the Greenland side of the ice sheet looks ok at the moment and if the cold air funnels towards Greenland and out in the North Atlantic this could fuel the temperature gradient that allows Atlantic lows to fire up. So the impacts may be much stronger in the North Pacific. Nothing too dramatic on our shores yet either way. After a hot start to the week a return to more average conditions is likely for the reliable timeframe but summer isn't over yet by any means. Just be careful that if a strong trend appears at T240 it may not come into fruition! PS with 34C possible in some areas tomorrow, imagine how hot it would of been if we got a direct hit from the plume!??? So near yet so far.
  6. Quicksilver1989

    Spain weather

    What a silly comment, half of the weather stations in Portugal reported record maximum temperatures, and parts of Spain were also record breakingly hot. Trying to deliberately play down the role climate change is having on our increasing number of summer heatwaves? Definitely not normal but less notable in eastern Spain.
  7. Now that the models seem to be firming up on the weekend I'll give some thoughts.... I think perhaps some were quick to dismiss the return of the jet in August as it is traditionally dominated by westerlies! All the talk of 40C seems like a long time ago now and we may not catch a plume at all if the Atlantic ramps up any further. A lesson to be learned here, that even if there is strong agreement on plumes and big heat at T240 it can still go wrong. Here is the ensembles from a couple of days back.... compared to today, which shows an increasingly short spell of heat. I think one or two spots could creep into the mid 30s on Friday and it may get a bit higher on Wednesday if the plume alligns perfectly but the chances of that are miniscule now, in fact I believe there is a chance the really warm uppers could miss us altogether. The problem is the pressure in the mid North Atlantic. Below we can see the synoptic picture for Monday The models have been pushing for a build of pressure over Greenland, which allows a cool lobe of air to move out of this region. This pushes down towards the UK before the plume can really build. Still fine details here and there may change. However the signal is for some really quite cool weather towards the end of the week and if we get a northerly flow then don't be surprised if we suddenly see deeper lows cross the country as the warm SSTs around the UK will give them more fuel. There is a lot of posts here about GLAAM and the MJO and El Nino forcing but I'm not convinced by any of these when it comes to the summer months at all. Everything is too finely poised and the large scale circulation patterns are usually so slack which is so important for an area like the UK. I haven't seen any evidence to suggest an El Nino has a forcing effect on this side of the world. There have been plenty of fantastic and awful El Nino summers (this one hasn't even really developed yet). I think the key player may be ocean currents and SSTs in the North Atlantic. While I don't dispute processes like ENSO, the MJO and SSW's have a big impact during the winter months I do dispute their influence in the summer. We can look at GLAAM, NAO, ROFLMAO, YOLO and such but the one thing that matters in these situations is how the Atlantic is behaving and its influence is becoming stronger again. Though the next few days are a callback to previous days of this glorious summer.
  8. 51C is being forecast for central Portugal on Saturday, this would smash the all time European heat record of 48.3C set in Sevilla in August 2003... madness and with all these heat records going its yet another sign of climate change intensifying our heatwaves. Will the UK get caught up in this intensely hot airmass? Difficult to say. The high pressure over the UK this weekend needs to move east to tap into this hot air. Plenty of GFS 00z ensemble members are showing this to be fair, just look at P1! This uncertainty seems to have been going on for an age now. As it stands the prospect of intense heat hitting us is very uncertain but should it come into fruition the UK temperature record will probably go too. Still need to wait 2-3 days before things become clearer for us. In the meantime temperatures warming up to the late 20s/early 30s for many central and southern areas later this week following the cooler blip.
  9. This weekend is looking very settled with temperatures getting into the high 20s or low 30s for southern and central parts. The change today has been the slower movement of the high pressure cell which is forecast to be rooted over the UK that little bit longer. The very warm uppers look like as though they may come up from the south early next week but the high remaining a tad bit west of the UK remains a possibility. It would still remain warm and dry by day but nights may be more comfortable for sleeping as a result. Certainly can't see any records being toppled at the weekend now... lol For the first time in a while we seem to have a consensus too with ICON, UKMO and GFS all showing high pressure centered over the UK at the weekend. My hunch is that we will get a few days of high pressure before a quick plume, but as I mentioned, don't be surprised if the high ends up further west then modelled either.
  10. Some dark clouds to my SE but no thunder at the moment
  11. According Blitzkorung lightning has been reported to the east of Lincoln and the west/south of London. Some sferics also in the channel. The real action though is just to the east of King's Lynn with the storms appearing to move NW'wards
  12. Can hear distant thunder in Southampton now and the wind is picking up! Looks like a cell may be starting to form NNW of Lincoln
  13. Rain now showing on the Meto radar to the west of Norwich.
  14. Turning cloudy here with darker clouds starting to appear to my south. A refreshing breeze, not sure if that rain will develop into a thunderstorm but it will be interesting to watch.
  15. The models don't make much sense to me at the moment.... I thought the weather was supposed to turn horrible when the school holidays started?????? The GFS doesn't show the intense heat of recent runs but high pressure is firmly in charge, anchored right over the UK. The really high uppers are mostly locked away in Iberia but we may just see a delay in the onset of the really high uppers. Temperatures by day into the upper 20s in most areas with nights perhaps more comfortable for sleeping. Selfishly I was hoping Summer 2018 would scoop all of the following - Hottest summer (should be on track if the 06z verifies?) - Driest summer (the 06z is especially dry for most after Sundays autumnal blip) - Hottest month (July 2006 may well be out of reach?) - Hottest temperature (I presume these next 3 weeks may be the best opportunity for it). Regardless, its still a super outlook for early August and I can see it being anticylonic like 1955, 1976 and 1984 with the risk of the odd cooler intrusion from the NW if the high anchors to the WSW. We shall see....
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