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About Quicksilver1989

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    Shameless liberal snowflake :)

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    Masters graduate in climatology, I love the fascinating unpredictability of the UK climate! Especially if it means snow or thunderstorms (or weather that is actually interesting)
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    Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers

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  1. Yup there seems to be more support for bringing in the milder air later next weekend, for Friday though the ensembles can be a bit misleading as uppers around -1 to -4C can still lead to heavy snow whilst the continental airmass hangs above. Anything after saturday though is pure conjecture due to the fact it is far away still. Though I will admit mid term has seen a trend to mild. This does remind me a fair bit of late December 2009 when deep lows were getting close by and introducing some milder air. The Greenland high got its back together and we were in the cold. Lets wait and see what tomorrow brings.
  2. I'm only focusing up to Saturday, after that its over 168 hours away... far too much time in a situation as volatile as this one.
  3. Right compared to yesterday some themes are now starting to emerge. 1) The Azores low is going to take a northwards path towards the UK 2) There is potential for mild air to make inroads towards Friday. However on closer look things are pretty unchanged from this morning. The 18z ensembles for example still show plenty of runs with cold air winning out down south. Up north there would be many snow showers (or persistant snow in the runs where weather fronts push further north). Anyway I've updated my graphs showing different scenarios again. Clearly the only thing on here that has changed is that a scenario where the cold pool covers the whole of the UK till saturday appears much less likely now. However as I mentioned earlier, battleground scenarios where the UK is still under continental air will still see snowfall even if uppers are less cold. The number of runs supporting a scenario with colder air hanging on until saturday remains unchanged. Two things could work in our favour: 1) The low weakens as it moves towards the UK and therefore its northwards movement is stunted 2) Northerlies from the Greenland high set in more quickly and keep the warmer uppers away from us. Both scenarios are very plausible still. A third scenario is that the low remains well to our south but that I think is a low possibility now. I looked at a group of ECM ensembles, 6 showed milder air taking control by saturday, 16 kept colder uppers over us at the same time. You could say that the ECM has caught up on the fact that low pressure is coming up from the south but whether this wins out is far from certain. In simple terms ECM is catching up to the GFS. The ops have favoured milder air winning, but that could easily change. The 00z's could show cold air still over the UK by next weekend.
  4. Right I've just looked at the 0z ECM ensembles..... I've categorized them into runs which keep the cold air over us by saturday (uppers cold enough for snow) and those that don't. The results are: Milder uppers coming in: 0 Colder uppers remaining: 22 So a large ensemble flip to milder coming up... or the op was a major outlier
  5. Yup, I think an unsettled pattern with milder uppers making their way across the whole of the UK eventually. There would need to be a big rise in pressure over Scandinavia to keep us in some cold air. Quite a way off though at this point. For Friday's snow event I'd rate them as follows for the south. GFS - Especially snowy with it all falling as snow, except for the far south perhaps for a short time. UKMO - Colder uppers but the surface cold is placed further north. Would be snowy for the Midlands but I think snow would turn to rain in the south GEM - Snow initially then turning to rain before the chance of snow later, too messy though ICON - Snow to rain to snow in the far south, snow elsewhere but a much shallower low. Anyway to underline what a knife edge scenario this is, the 12z ensembles are actually a notable improvement with regards to Friday's low down here. P1 is an example of what I wish to see
  6. Complex synoptic pattern for later next week now developing, I thought I'd go through each step of the interesting 12z run from the GFS. We seem to now suddenly have a very unsettled Thursday/ Friday coming up, so why is that the case? Well Wednesday's developments are pretty important, ironically the easterly is too clean and the unstable air makes it all the way across the UK and into the Atlantic. On Thursday the cold unstable air starts getting wrapped into the Azores low meaning it intensifies and mild air from the Med/ Africa starts moving northwards (left panel). The Greenland heights face towards the N. American side too much and cannot stifle the northwards progress of the low. However tiny changes can still keep the UK firmly embedded in the cold. Finally here is a chart from January 2013 which shows uppers around -2C for Wales yet this was an area covered under a red snow warning and saw a pretty big fall! Shows if the cold surface air is in place then snow can still be achieved. In the GFS 12z, the UK is still in the continental air come Friday All falls as snow, perhaps a few more borderline moments in the extreme south Whereas the UKMO mixes in some Atlantic air, despite the colder uppers, more areas would see rain. Not as good, with continental air pushed north The scope for a historic snowfall event is there but its a high risk game and with the GEM there would be no going back. So those who don't fare well from the easterly this week will be disappointed. However there is huge uncertainty about this period at the moment. Very impressive synoptics though, so enjoy!
  7. A lot of anxiety about the forecasts for late next week I see. For objectivity I decided to create a graph showing how the GFS ensembles have varied since yesterday with regards to the Friday low. These scenarios are with respect to the south: Continental air displaced - Low pressure makes such progress that precipitation is likely to turn to rain, not what I'd like to see because it would be very miserable here. Areas further north would get a good snow event but it would herald the breakdown of the cold spell. Cold air wins out - Here the low still comes towards the UK, however cold air puts up a fight, leading to some big snowfalls. This is high risk high reward although some of these scenarios would see snow/rain/snow transitions down here. The best scenario IMO is if we get a channel low which then trundles towards the north sea Low remains well south - Or doesn't really get going. Here the low goes through Spain instead and heads towards the Denmark area leaving the UK in cold pool still. Atmosphere would still be very unstable and there would be many heavy snow showers under cold uppers. Finally I think a few people are forgetting that we can have uppers close to 0C and still get falling snow, provided we are under continental air. So what does the graph show? Well there has been a marked shift towards riskier scenarios for the south since the 12z yesterday. A consequence of the easterly being too clean perhaps? Ideally we would want to see a more influential Greenland high to our NW to help the low pass through Iberia and central Europe instead. There is so much uncertainty about that milder scenario however. Shortwaves are likely to form due to the intensity of the cold air, these can interact favourably for us and change the course of the Azores low. Finally is the GFS still falling for the old trend of deepening lows too much? The 12z's will provide some useful clues.
  8. Show us your pet

    Here is my cat called Rubens back home in Hull, he's very large bengal cat, always fussing and eating food. He enjoys jumping in the snow too, I'm sure he will enjoy the next week or so
  9. Well another superb set of runs again, I think the medium range output is going to be defined by this low in the Azores. I expect it to make some progress northwards... however the GFS looks rather strange with no disruption and turning at a 90 degree angle as it moves into Europe. I reckon it will take more of an ENE path, hopefully it will cross the channel giving me some heavy snow but we shall see. Southampton doesn't usually do too well from easterlies though it got a fair covering during January 1987 and February 1991 from what I've read. UKMO looks a bit more realistic. Perhaps its just a case of GFS overdoing a dartboard low again . The Greenland high isn't as extensive which increases the chance of the snowy events like this occuring, however a breakdown may come quicker. Still a long way off though and don't be surprised to see a cold high form over Scandi to put up a fight against the incoming low. Deep cold can be hard to shift.
  10. Yeah, as Oasis mentioned it's to do with that little Atlantic low moving to Greenland, I don't think it should be a problem as its just a few runs aggressively developing the low at T72. These rogue ensemble members let the little low cut through the Scandi block like butter and let it pass down to our east. I don't think that is realistic and the vast majority of runs do not develop it or just let it go off into the arctic. By tomorrow that will be cleared up but I don't expect it to get in the way of things given a clean hit has been such a strong signal over the last 6 runs or so.
  11. I think its just noise, I can only count 3 runs that pursue a scenario where pressure is higher to a significant extent in the north, the cold pool over Scandi still hits the UK albeit more the south. There is always going to be a bit of noise, in fact 19 ensemble members show the Scandi cold pool having a clean hit on the UK so an unusually low level of noise. Many GFS runs develop a small low and send it to Greenland but it gets gobbled up by the high pressure anyway
  12. Looking at the 18z OP, I calculated the CET estimate for the first 10 days of March and it came to an amazing -1.3C and thats with the milder weather at the end! Some crazy minimums over the snow fields. Anyhow just had a look at the ensembles and most of them show a battle with milder air from the Azores low trying to make its way through. However the majority support the OP in keeping us in the cold air under a slack regime.... so maybe that CET estimate for the first 10 days of March may not be too unrealistic....
  13. Right if the GFS comes into fruition I probably won't be able to visit here for a long while. I'll be back when the power is restored and the snow has finally melted in April In all seriousness though, there would be crazy amounts of snow as that low meanders in the cold air for at least 48 hours!
  14. GFS trying to outdo the ECM and UKMO I see... When is the point where upgrades become impossible?
  15. Am I not the only one thinking that this is being under-reported by many media outlets? I've not seen one headline about this on the main BBC website up to now. Back in 2010 the imminent snowfall was warned about in advance and it was the main news headline. BBC and meteogroup need to spread the message across more as its going to be a tough week for the UK.