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Quicksilver1989 last won the day on July 4

Quicksilver1989 had the most liked content!

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About Quicksilver1989

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    Shameless liberal snowflake :)

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    Masters graduate in climatology, I love the fascinating unpredictability of the UK climate! Especially if it means snow or thunderstorms (or weather that is actually interesting)
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    Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers

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  1. And, your point is?.... I said 2010 and 1878 were examples of blocked months followed by cold winters, in spite of the milder start it still had a very strong -NAO, as did November 1995 and the winter that followed it wasn't too bad either..., just because we are having some blocked synoptics now doesn't mean we won't later. The ECM this morning does bear a lot of similarities to November 1995 with its forecast pattern, a slack jet, low pressure to our south but still managing to bring up warm air from the Med! GFS also going for a slack but cyclonic pattern with some residual colder air still lingering over parts of the UK.
  2. Yes although uppers would need to be a fair bit colder. Nevertheless the 18z ensembles are looking substantially colder, many more have undercutting lows with the -5C isotherm over the UK on Tuesday still.
  3. Back to the model output and the GFS is not backing down from the very cold uppers, may see some lower lying areas see some snow/wintry showers. Meteociel precpitation forecasts suggest so! Perhaps Wales and Scotland could do pretty well? Maybe a bit of sleet in some of the east coast showers? Impressive early cold pool over Scandi on Monday. A few people saying they are worried about getting cold synoptics now. The weather does not have a budget, the weather gods don't think 'Ah I used up 6 easterlies in November so I won't use any more for the winter'. The weather will do whatever it wants and all we can look at are long range signals for an inkling and hope they persist into the short range. Enjoy the ride. Look at November 2010 or November 1878 for blocked Novembers leading to very good winters.
  4. Yes I think in 2016 people thought it was certain we would be getting cold synoptics because all the longer range forecasts were indicating cold but that counts for nothing until we get into medium range, it's just an inkling. I think last winter was different because we had a big SSW event and this has a plausible mechanism for causing northern blocking. Saying that though a strongly negative NAO in November does seem to improve our chances of cold in its first half but not by a huge amount. I also look out for cold shots reaching the SE US and very mild air getting to Newfoundland and Greenland. SSTs are also worth keeping an eye on, here are a comparison between milder winters and their November SSTs Milder winters 2015 2013 1994 2011 Colder ones 2012 2010 1996 1995 From the examples it seems as though warmer then average SSTs around the east of Newfoundland, around Greenland and the tropical north atlantic but it isn't clear cut. What at 2018? Here is the picture from the latest SSTs.... Seems like an SST profile that would favour a more westerly jet so the southerly flows in the Central North Atlantic region would be nice. As would be some cold pooling in the SE US/ Gulf of Mexico which is what is happening this week. So the northerly next weekend is welcome IMO. 18Z not much different from the 12z upto the medium range.
  5. Hello 12z's coming out soon so I thought I would summarise. A very nice week on the way before a shock to the system on Friday! A really impressive chart this with high pressure extending from the Azores well into the arctic. The 06z GFS looks to make the northerly for the weekend even colder with -5C uppers widely across the UK on Saturday. Snow at lower levels in Scotland is a realistic bet with some also on higher ground in the west. This synoptic setup is similar to October 2008 though so there may be some surprises. It requires a clean hit though, the ECM doesn't quite manage that but is still cold: ECM has things a bit further west. Later on there is evidence the high could ridge to Scandi: This would make it a 5 day cold snap at least rather then just a brief toppler. Some of the runs develop a really vigorous low over central Europeas warm air from Africa clashes with the arctic air. Don't pay attention to the sudden breakdowns at t240, GFS low res tends to do that...
  6. Those charts aren't particularly exciting I don't think, westerlies with temperatures a little below average is all I can see there. For next weekends northerly to be more then a toppler our best bet is to get the cold over Europe as well and then get pressure to build over Scandi. This wouldn't be particularly cold but its still early days though.
  7. Almost certainly going to a very cold northerly later on this week with perhaps sleet or snow at lower levels if the GFS 12z is believed. Next question is how long will it last? Will the block become anchored over Greenland and keep the cold going? or will it be a toppler?
  8. Thought I'd have an early foray into this thread. Interesting to see arctic sea ice recovery has been particularly sluggish in the last few weeks: Perhaps this may help promote a more -AO in November? Hopefully the GFS is onto something in the mid range, if the high migrates to Greenland this would release some pretty cold air our way: Though in the mid term we may have another Atlantic hurricane which could throw another spanner in the works: One thing I like about Mid November -January is that we don't need amazing synoptics for serious cold due to the weak strength of the sun. Get some cold air in place with slack winds and the cold can quickly build... not too long to wait now but will we see the first decently negative December NAO since 2010?
  9. I can imagine the headlines now From warmer than AFRICA to colder then GREENLAND! ICE WAVE set to hit to UK and last for 10 WEEKS! Hoping for some settled weather for my week off but I don't think I've seen so much uncertainty in the short range with hurricane Leslie playing havoc with the models. Sunday could be a total right off and I'm worried monday may not be so settled now thanks to the low on the GFS that tracks through the north sea. Even the location of the rain band tomorrow remains uncertain, will it stay dry in the NE? Forecasts are differing and its hard to make a call. There could also be some exceptionally high minima this evening, with GFS suggesting no lower then 18C in Hull this evening!
  10. Quicksilver1989

    Hurricane Michael

    It may well be making landfall at the wrong time, a longer time over the ocean may have led to an eyewall replacement cycle and allowed weaking through the intake of dry air... as what happened to Florence. Unfortunately it looks like Michael is making landfall at what would have been its peak intensity regardless. 919mb is incredible but surely it hasn't deepened that much????? that would be an unbelieveable drop
  11. Quicksilver1989

    Hurricane Michael

    Still nowhere to be seen on the front page of the BBC, madness, especially when considering how powerful this storm is!
  12. Quicksilver1989

    Hurricane Michael

    Remarkable indeed, it would suggest that further wind increases may be possible although I think the imminent interaction with land may stop it hitting a cat 5. However Michael has taken everyone by surprise so far...
  13. Quicksilver1989

    Hurricane Michael

    Midday update: Sustained winds: 145mph Minimum SLP: 933mb https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2018/hurricane-michael?map=forecast
  14. Quicksilver1989

    Hurricane Michael

    Yes I fear this may well become a category 5 storm. How well prepared are people given this storm popped up at such short notice? I haven't heard much about it on the news here whereas with Florence everyone seemed aware well in advance.
  15. Quicksilver1989

    Hurricane Michael

    I think recon has spotted readings as low as 965mb, either way its poised for rapid intensification going by this image Intense convection on the east and northern sides of the storm, its beginning to look well defined.