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About Quicksilver1989

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    Masters graduate in climatology, I love the fascinating unpredictability of the UK climate! Especially if it means slow or thunderstorms (or weather that is actually interesting)
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    Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers

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  1. Seems to be more potential for a build of high pressure over Scandi on this run
  2. GFS produces a stonking pub run and as others have mentioned the surface cold will be building with the slack winds. Then the ridging to Scandi keeps warmer air at bay before a northerly later on! There are many positives from this run: - The major plume of warm air heading to Greenland could have knock on effects later, ie reinforcing any northern blocking later on - The fact that 850s prior to next weeks forecast northerly keep nudging downwards to our north - Potential for a rise in SLP over Scandanavia - Drop in temperature over the nearby continent. Still feeling a bit cautious due to the UKMO so I don't want to get my hopes up...but if the 18z transpired I would be more then happy. The most important thing is to get everything out to T120 nailed down and send that warm air upto Greenland and build that high. Once that is achieved things could get really interesting but lets wait and see, fingers crossed
  3. The uppers associated with the midweek northerly seem to be getting slightly colder with each run Just like the GFS 12Z so far.
  4. Amazing positive temperature anomalies in the arctic at the moment, pretty much the entire basin! No wonder the zonal wind across the NH is set to decrease...
  5. Lets hope this GFS is onto something, energy heading south and plenty of WAA to support a build of pressure over Greenland yet again. Fingers crossed for a good ECM later.
  6. GFS 12Z 06Z Bit of an improvement with the GFS, slightly less energy going out of the E of Canada. May improve things later would be good to see the UKMO on board. That makes a much bigger deal out of the low... may chop and change for quite a while given this is a region where uncertainties are often higher.
  7. More of a sinking high today rather then a Greenland high. The culprit is an area of low pressure exiting NE Canada at T72, it heads NNE and is forecast to intensify more then it did in yesterdays runs: UKMO ECM GFS The consequence of this is that the block is put under more pressure and the high doesn't really build over Greenland. Unfortunately it is a feature on all runs now so it's going to have a role. For things to improve there we need the build of pressure over Greenland to be stronger then forecast at T96. Alternatively a link with the arctic high, a later attempt at Greenland ridging or a build of heights over Scandi could prolong the colder air. All still possibilities at this point despite added short term complications. Though I can understand why some are a bit disappointed.
  8. So it looks as though a little shortwave cuts off the link of heights to Greenland but that could easily disappear in the next run, upto T120 its fantastic The 18z also really increases the blocking over the arctic later on compared to the 12z at the same time. Here are two charts at T186: 18z 12z
  9. What a NH view that is!, with an 1040mb high in the arctic too! Just need to send that cold air over Svalbard our way. With the N Atlantic flow cut off from the continents they should turn cold very quickly. Would be even better if energy went under the North Atlantic block
  10. The GFS run is superb, a wee bit more energy under the Greenland high in the later frames and we would be getting some even colder air towards us eventually. Good to see -9C 850s already. Do models sometimes overestimate upper air temps? and could colder pockets appear closer to the time? Either way the good thing about this time of year is that the weak solar input means temperatures at the surface can drop very quickly especially in slack winds. During 18th-25th December 2010 for example uppers were at a similar level (maybe a tad colder). Probably won't be as cold as that this time round at the surface but it just illustrates how we develop our own cold pool. UKMO very similar to GFS earlier on but differ in the level of strength of the Greenland high. If we can get the GH to develop more on the UKMO then it may stay more securely to our NW. Either way its still a very good run.
  11. Also someone mentioned the lack of cold uppers.... well at T144 we can see unstable air develop near Svalbard and uppers drop very quickly, major steps forward today
  12. The 18z going along the right path this time, just 6h slower then the UKMO and ECM, here is a comparison with the 18z (left) and 12z (right) at the same time The 18z shows more support for heights to the NW, especially when that low moves south across the UK. Great stuff and a step in the right direction at close range too!
  13. That ECM is very similar to the p8 run from the 12z GFS . More pressure to the W of the block but the WAA is strong enough to keep the high pressure to the NW, a very good run indeed so lets hope we get the pressure rise in Greenland we need.
  14. A look through the GFS ens shows around 5-6 runs with the potential for serious WAA into the arctic at T144. P3 is the closest to UKMO But the operational isn't out on its own. P8 meanwhile takes the award for the best run IMO
  15. Even though the GFS turns westerly based later on, high pressure over the pole is a very consistent theme, all the way out to T384 Which is good to see