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iceman1991

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Posts posted by iceman1991

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

    I feel we’re on the cusp of something potentially extreme into December. That cold to the E has been building steadily for a while now.

    How confident are you Cheshire from your experience majour cold spell hitting uk and do you think it will be a Scandi high easterly winds or a Greenland high ? 

     

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    People are commenting as if the writing is on the wall long term, where as this actual cold spell kind of appeared from a wrongly modelled northerly at about Day 5 - the cold is coming, and any breakdown being modelled beyond day 6-8 is just as likely to swing colder again!! 

    Out of genrel interest why you think that is the case as I really hope your right of course ? 

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Think I would agree. The current UKMO outputs seem to be latching on to a quicker evolution to a colder scenario over the coming 7 days. Looking at the latest Fax chart , even at 72t there is an upgrade  with the 528 dam line further west. The North Sea will modify the 850mb values but the 500mb -1000mb  values would be low enough for snow ❄ especially a bit inland at 200m . The main source of cold advection into NW Europe will be from Scandinavia where the cold pool is now currently intensifying. I expect upgrades over the coming days , especially for The British Isles.

    C

    20231125.webp

    Fingers crossed dude 

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    I would say that next week going on the met update keeps the lows away! It points at some snow on Thursday before colder Nthly winds bed in for next weekend and the following week with plenty of sleet and snow showers for exposed parts! So severe frosts could be possible here.

    And for me to bed the cold in for a week or more will greatly enhance our chances for the next bout of milder incursions. No mention of milder air getting in now during the first part of the update,yesterday it stated increasing likelihood of milder Atlantic conditions getting in early December.

    Looks pretty good in my eyes folks.

    Seems like gunna be similar to last year cold spell just dry and cold with no snow hope I’m wrong though better than the wet weather we’ve had 

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM clusters this morning, starting with T120-T168:

    IMG_7762.thumb.png.3eb0567eb74ee707e57985fe6fd892e0.png

    Not really much difference here between these two!

    T192-T240:

    IMG_7763.thumb.png.3a65b0ffce5e1d5996840e7bc880c050.png

    Cluster 1 maintains the -NAO, 21 members, this one perhaps not well represented by the morning op runs, which have tended to be more like clusters 2 or 3 which focus blocking around Greenand and more to an Atlantic ridge regime.

    T264+

    IMG_7764.thumb.png.f805af983595d8b22278bee3465288f4.png

    There has previously been no clear signal in this timeframe, but now I think there is a suggestive signal - for extending the cold.  Cluster 1 maintains strong heights over Greenland and the north more generally out to day 15, and cluster 4 moves northern blocking towards Scandi. 

    Wow 🤩 

    • Like 3
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    Worth a read if you've missed it regarding El nino winters and the negative NAO...evidence suggests it could mean even more negative phases into the New Year.

    Jumping the gun here but I feel this Winter could be one that lasts in the memory,along way to go bit signs look oh so good.

    Screenshot_20231124_212248_X.jpg

    Screenshot_20231124_212409_X.jpg

    Amazing brother 

    • Like 3

    Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Everyone going on about seasonal ecm model and others predicting mild preety sure I see on here weren’t all the seasonal models saying a hot summer for this one and it’s been nothing but cold  far from hot I’m down the south to  not having a dig at anyone think people just need to relax a bit not saying we gunna be in for a cold winter just see what happens 

    • Like 2

    Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Rayth said:

    Saturday 24 Dec - Monday 2 Jan

    Confidence is unusually low for the Christmas weekend; a north/south divide with cold air, wintry showers and increased risk of more significant snow in the north, and milder conditions with rain and showers in the south, is likely, but where the boundary will be is very uncertain. Eventually, as we head towards the New Year, the colder conditions are more likely to come to dominate, with wintry showers in the north and potential for a more settled spell to develop. This would bring below average temperatures, potential for areas of freezing fog with widespread overnight frosts, and very low temperatures given any snow cover. Towards the end of the period, there are signs of a trend towards more changeable weather, with an upturn in temperatures.

    Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 19 Dec 2022

     

    Wasn't really expecting this kind of wording to be honest from the METO , could be fun and games to come with some OP runs 

    Hmmm just seems high pressure on control no mention snow for south sounds the same as the cold spell we’ve just had just dry not the best really 

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