supernova

The low deepens and pushes slightly north - fine margins. From this... to this.... But at this range both could be completely wrong by an awful lot more than a hundred miles or so. Not gonna get hung up about such details this far out. Broad direction of travel still cold, but shows how quickly synoptics can turn from great to grating, as if we didn't need reminding. Couple more days of frayed nerves before we know for sure but the chase is fun, I guess. Kind of.

*checks uppers* * nods appreciatively* As you were....

Which looked equally as splendid from 216 alllllllll the way to 72hrs until it left the party with the keys to bar and without saying goodbye! Cross model agreement is good. Let's hope it stays like that for the next week....very much hope so.

GFS 12z Op and Control very similar track out to the weekend (on the ensembles). Colder end of the suite, absolutely, but outliers....mmm, I'll let you decide (but I would argue probably not - so far!). Edit: Easier to see respective tracks out to Mon 8th here:-

So much to resolve beforehand but after a year hibernating in tier 4 the pub run’s finally had enough and gone down the Rovers for a full-on lock in with drinks on the house all night and the Bangles tribute band shortly appearing live dressed in see through Princess Leia bikinis and a note from the missus saying for one evening only it’s a free pass with no morning interrogation so fill your boots and don’t come home until you’re good and drunk. Very snowy. Numerous arctic lows. As much chance of that happening as the paragraph above actually being true but not a bad way to sign off Sunday after what’s been a tortuous few days of baiting from the ECM and co.

Tonight's ECM certainly better than recent days but will be interesting to see where it sits in its ensembles. By no means a nailed on evolution due to such marginal differences from the trigger/limpet low - could be days not hours before this is resolved but in very general terms we are heading colder with multiple options of interest, if not quite the clean and snowy beast perhaps envisaged (yet).

Such as a mesoscale low perhaps and that which made Jan 2010 so memorable. Good article about it here https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wea.740

All Easterly counties feeling more than a little raw next Sunday if those winds and uppers on the GFS Op come to pass. Would it be dry though? More than enough temperature differential for convective snow showers but one of our more knowledgable members will no doubt tell me whether that's very likely or not in those conditions. Precipitation chart suggests maybe so.

You missed "vital"

Much less I reckon, @birdman, probably more like 3 although the broad journey toward cold snap rather than cold spell (as it stands) remains likely. The earlier post by @Pennine Ten Foot Drifts nailed it perfectly actually.

No thanks GFS 06z Op, we'll take the Control if you please. Admittedly at the colder end of the ensembles but still viable. The main point being that if the limpet low disrupts mostly south rather filling in situ or heading N/NE we end up with a clean Easterly and soon afterwards a variation of this...

Glad you're back posting @TEITS and especially appreciative when like some of the other more knowledgeable members on here (whose contributions I readily seek out) you stick your neck out and back it up with tangible detail that explains why you favour a certain outcome. Hope you're right and glad to be reading your insightful comments again.

In fact the opposite of Dec 12 when the ECM in particular had counted down a potent Easterly only to scupper all chances at the last minute. This time the ECM has been reluctant throughout which is why so many have probably still got the jitters because it remains one of the better models in the crucial 5-6 day timeframe. Not sure which scenario I prefer tbh, ECM fully onboard only to kill us dead at the finish or vaguely indifferent only to delight us nearer the time?! For those in any doubt, let me remind you... 5th Dec 2012 looking out 192 hrs on the 12z as the BFTE roars in... One run later, the roar still looks primed, then 12z on the 6th, 96hrs still looking good... Even closer on the 0z with no dramas and then 72hrs on the 12z, when woollen layers and insulated boots were being hastily prepared... Until the worst u-turn in ECM history destroyed the hearts and souls of a cold-loving nation not 12 hours later as the low slipped east, high pressure drifted across the UK and fathers across the nation had to tell their children that Santa wasn’t real after all...

Still have nightmares about that particular countdown @That ECM. What a flip! And I’d told the kids to ready their sledges (lesson duly learned, this time I’m polishing the runners in secret!).

Wins best word in a post competition @Stu_London obdurate adjective stubbornly refusing to change one's opinion or course of action. "I argued this point with him, but he was obdurate" Model related only in as much as this perfectly defines the recent ECM, as Stu so succinctly points out. Btw, Gem ensembles vs GEFS for Lincolnshire showing reasonable alignment but also that whilst a colder period almost certainly looms, its full extent and duration remains very much in doubt. Edit: Ignoring the ECM op, it’s right at the top of its ensembles almost from the get go. Next!

Cross model agreement scuppered by a damply uninspiring ECM and a messy Icon, but at least the UKMO is on board. GFS broadly signed up although Op doesn’t get there very cleanly and breaks down rather quickly too. Para blummin’ cold to the end and the GEFS mean still great including the Control which is ace throughout and finishes with a significant snow event followed by a solid high over the whole of the country so we can enjoy the snow. Could be a lot worse but ECM’s stubborn reluctance to join the ice party still casting a mean-spirited shadow on an otherwise encouraging set of 00s if we ignore the French model, which in light of Brexit we probably should until they give us back our fish! Take that you scallop-stealing Frenchies.... PS, quite fond of our French neighbours really.

You're right Tim you'll probably jinx it! ECM has precedent of dashing all our hopes and it's trying once again I fear.

Liking where the Para is heading.... Edit: Deep cold encroaching next Sunday and finally slipping away the following weekend but a frigid week in between. Too far out to have any real faith but by no means shoddy.

Not quite sure whether the ECM's been drinking Special Brew or Iron Brew out to 168 (I suspect the former) so waiting rather impatiently for the rest of the run but in the meantime have ordered up the chef's special, GFS Perb Number 2, which would presumably come with special dried ice and some frozen (chunky?) nips!

Tbf guys your +1 uppers at 204hrs have got a much better chance of verifying than what the Para goes on to deliver at 342hrs+ but a worthy frame if only JFF. Hard for us not to get enthusiastic about a potential Easterly up here in Lincolnshire, not least this winter where we've had bugger all thus far, so fascinating model watching currently and the broad direction of travel remains encouraging, even if the details are too far out to debate with any confidence.

MetO own recent blog agrees with you Catacol, thankfully. Opposing forces battle for winter supremacy | Official blog of the Met Office news team BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The second half of December has seen dramatic swings between different weather patterns. Storm Bella brought strong winds and flooding, while the current flow of air...

Nice post. How about a SSW to celebrate, Mike?! Thanks to all posters, in fact, on whom so many of us rely.

V helpful posts both. At least this year we get the chance to examine and discuss charts across all models with genuine potential, although no real BOOM-worthy cold in the foreseeable as has been covered to death by Uppers-gate. Meaningful roads to certainly better than we're used to and Strat activity bodes well. Lots to cheer in an otherwise mostly cheerless year!

Just realised that if I’d have spent the same amount of hours doing overtime at work this winter that I’ve spent gawping at Siberian-sourced weather porn on the NW forum, I could have afforded a week in Lapland dressed in an elf costume throwing snowballs at Santa.

Well I do now Blue. Soz. I'm an idiot..