supernova

No, but isn't it fun?!

MSLP mB chart WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM UKV is a high resolution numerical weather prediction model run by the UK Met Office There's everything but pressure on Netweather's version @sheikhy but you can find it on the other side hour by hour.

Massive, and I mean massive, flip from MOGREPS. Don't get me wrong it doesn't go all nationwide Narnia but huge huge differences from this morning. Low slides on majority. Easterly incoming.

BBC Look North "No chance of a White Christmas in Lincolnshire, mostly cloudy with occasional outbreaks of rain over the Christmas period into Boxing Day." No hesitation, no mention of troublesome modelling. Clearly relying on the ECM - rightly or wrongly? Looking forward to finding out. Head saying one thing, heart saying another, but brave to bet against the pros!

UKV hi-res has us in a direct Easterly by Xmas day. Temperatures dropping with rain turning to snow by Boxing Day morning and the cold stretching across most of the country by the 27th. Well it's certainly knife edge but it’s not over yet.

On so many levels I’m praying ECM comes out in support of Slidergate. Not at all confident by even the tiniest stretch of my imagination but it would be quite the turnaround if so. Reckon Uber wouldn’t have a big enough fleet to transport the required quantum of humble pie needed for some naysayers on here—not that it’s about being right or wrong (no really it’s not) but there’s been Defcon 4 levels of smugness on here at times this week. Come on ECM!

JMA sliding at 72 hrs and further south with cold compared to yesterday's run (which was good).

Yup

Mr Murr also said despite the models struggling with this sort of evolution our latest chase was heading speedily towards a March '13 redux and likely to pan out just dandy (or words to that effect, on Twitter). He might still be right (hope so) but I very much doubt it based on current output. Am stubbornly refusing to wake up and smell the coffee for another 24 hours despite being acutely aware I'm likely to be drinking double expresso with Tiramisu and coffee liqueur to finish this time tomorrow, especially looking at the latest update from GFS which puts us even further out the game before surrendering completely to the perennially Grinchy Azores high. Stupid UK weather and even stupider models. It's like the prettiest girl at work spending a whole week begging you for a lift to the Christmas party to discover she really only wanted a cheap ride so she could snog the smug hunk from marketing while you were left eating curled up prawn sarnies with big Maureen from accounts (no offence Maureen).

Not sure I worded my intended compliment as well as I could have done @johnholmes but my point was that no model beats experience and judgement, of which you remain a well-respected advocate.

@johnholmes ! Cos even with all our computing advances, for now at least you can’t beat experience and human intervention, as the MetO proves time and time again. Still not perfect (not meaning you John obvs), but once again the models have played us beautifully because in the end the weather is a law unto itself which is why, in truth, we all find it so fascinating.

Quite the bust for cold this morning and anyone that says I told you so, frankly, can do one, because this could have gone either way. Tempted to say it still could change but cross model agreement from the big three is pretty convincing this morning so odds largely against another complete flip but, hey, it is Christmas, so maybe the weather Gods will cut us some slack! The north+south positioning and elongation/separation of the slider low was always knife edge but the sudden disintegration of heights to our NW appears to have been the final straw. Will look forward to hearing from some of our more experienced posters as to the cause. Been a fun ride this last week but sadly the sledge is now firmly back in the loft, albeit ready for a dust down should circumstances change. Merry Christmas all. Now just need to establish who talked about White Club….

Some of you must be really tired. Has anybody posted the JMA yet? Cold. Like almost every other model. At some point. Somewhere. But not everywhere. Because it isn't 2010, 1962 or 1947. Yet. And may never be. Because we don't live in the Arctic. They have dozens of words for snow there. I wonder if they argue as much about what sort?

Tbf 128 pages was an argument about hummus. I think the chick peas won but the tahini ran them close. Onto the ECM….

Please don't @TSNWK. It made me laugh and was perfect the first time

Spectacular level of trolling on here and online this morning. Why people feel the need to turn a positive interest in the weather into personal, negative, or ego-led comment I've no idea. Personal opinion, different interpretation, challenging perspectives all absolutely fine, but deliberately provocative and bolshy posts serve no purpose other than to highlight a lack of empathy and an apparent need for attention. What some people seem to forget is that how you say something is so often just as, if not more important, than what you say. Still, GFS clearly affected by the tone as it taints earlier runs with slight incursion of milder air but semantics still being resolved - broader pattern all good so far.

Disappointed at current charts/outlook? Wow, tough crowd.

Somebody much brighter than me needs to interpret this properly but apparently rare TPV tracking south over Svalbard leaves us a little Christmas gift just as we”re figuring out what to do with the leftover turkey. If you change the map selection to Europe you can see the effect over UK (pic bottom left).

Remarkable consistency for placement of the low from MOGREPS although significant variations of its resulting exit and therefore variable wintry output. At least a couple in there like GFS control….nothing much short of epic. Several leaving most of the country practically snowless from any frontal activity too. Still plenty to figure out but overall direction of travel absolutely tantalising.

Just gonna go round and pick up all the towels that were thrown in over the last couple of days….more than enough to keep everybody warm during the upcoming cold spell! Quite how cold, quite how snowy, quite how long lasting, absolutely no idea yet, and may even need all these towels to mop up the tears if the models flip again as we close in on Christmas. But favourable shifts today—as many hoped there might be. Now imagine what it was like when THAT ECM did us at 72 hrs or less a few years back. I lost count of the Booms! that got burst that year (including mine). Christmas is back on, if only temporarily and not for all, so enjoy it whilst you can. More changes to come but GEFS tell the story well….still big uncertainty by Xmas Eve (96-120 hrs and onwards).

GEM says a bit nippy for Boxing Day but boundary and detail still a moving feast obvs.

UKMO Extended. Oh go on then.

Doesn't just back the Op, @Mucka it trumps it. Proper Easterly.

UKMO comes back into the light. Game on.

Anybody would think you've been model watching a while Feb....