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supernova

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Posts posted by supernova

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    If you ignore the GFS Op and Control runs from the last 24 hours and just look at the ensemble mean it makes for quite an interesting picture. The cooldown over coming days has been firmed up (even deepened) and in all instances there is then a slight warming followed by a longer term trend to cool down again although not to anything particularly cold. My heart therefore says we're still in with a chance of upgrades whereas my head says we've probably trended the wrong way compared to what "might have been".  Even so, the scatter is still pronounced so I'm going to embrace any wintry opportunities in the reliable (which will hopefully bring a bit of the white stuff for folks on here) before the next chapter is resolved. If it was easy it just wouldn't be as much fun right?....

     

     Could contain: Chart, Plot, BlackboardCould contain: Blackboard, ChartCould contain: Blackboard, Electronics

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    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, DecSeventeen said:

    This will likely be ignored as I've never posted on here before, however I've been a regular winter lurker since 2018, so really it's about time I got on with it and actually did a post.

    This whole situation, the question of whether the low will move through too far N, too far S, give snow to the N, to the S, bring in mild air too quickly and so on and so on is one that isn't going to be resolved for several days yet, this is something that's been said many times already yes I know, just thought I'd restate that.

    One thing that I think is important to note though is that opinions on any individual run/model is going to vary greatly dependent on the location of the poster - anyone in southern England will say a run that shows rain for them a poor run, even if that same run has a major snow event for northern England. And I'm not in any way suggesting that this is a bad thing, because yes of course everyone wants the snow in their location, so everyone will post their opinions based on that, but just want to highlight the way that that can make following the situation pretty confusing for everyone since so many different opinions are getting thrown around, based on location.

    For my location, something like the GFS 12z today would be the absolute sweet spot, I wouldn't want things ending up much further N or S of that scenario however we all know that in the intervening 6 days, it's pretty likely to end up somewhere else. Wherever things end up, the only certain thing is that there's going to be a whole lot of changes and swings in the next few days, and I think the best thing to hope for at this stage is just that the low ends up tracking in a position which will give snow to somewhere in the country. We all hope that somewhere will be our respective locations, but ultimately it's just nice to have such exciting model output to watch despite being pretty late in the season.

    Don’t be timid….all opinions welcome especially when they are more model centric than IMBY type stuff. As you say, great to have something to talk about.

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    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Lots of modelism permeating the thread (new woke word) before we even know the outcome. Chances are (statistically) the GFS's determination to bring a raging Easterly won't come to pass as all the other models prefer a more Atlantic driven and/or milder outcome to a lesser or greater extent. But even if the GFS is plumb wrong (and 06z so far looks like a move toward the other models' solutions may be in play) or has suffered periods of poor consistency since its latest upgrade, that doesn't make its output invalid on this or any other occasion. Surely the joy of model watching is the variation between outputs and the chase of something other than damp dross blowing our way? And think of this....if all the models were in agreement, what would be the point of this forum?! So I salute GFS and its steadfast need to give us hope - often the more interesting character in a room is the bonkers one that's prepared to stand out and be wrong! As for taking sides or, even worse, taking sides against those that took sides....well...often not really model related other than retrospective bragging rights for those who bet the right way. I only tend to read these posts if there's rational and scientific justification as to why a particular view on the output deserves any more support than another. Otherwise it's just playground banter and deservedly ignored!

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    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    GFS clearly fed up with dry January and encourages the Op to spend all afternoon plotting how completely bungalowed it’s going to get come February! Hopefully, ECM says I’m having whatever the GFS  is having but I suspect not, especially as the Op appears to be partying on its own with no support from the ENS. Great to see, nonetheless - was getting too subdued in here and I kinda dig the evolution. One to watch and certainly better than having nothing to watch.

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    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Inconsistency run-to-run makes it hard for me to have even the slightest confidence in any of the output currently (longer range stuff in particular) so a good time to seek out trend-spotting posts from some of our more experienced members such as @Kirkcaldy Weather's insightful note above or the sort of stuff @bluearmy@nick sussex@johnholmes (amongst others) are always so good at sharing. Mid month and beyond still my main focus of interest especially if we keep seeing a potential Strat warming (tho nothing currently to suggest a full SSW) such as on this evening's GFS. Slim pickings for sure but not unfamiliar territory over recent years...

     

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    Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    Time to get properly stuck into the egg nog and crack open the Quality Street based on that rather uninspiring output - cool and windy zonal is being kind! Not much in the way of straws to clutch at other than the merest hint of height rises towards Scandi as we get further into January but hoping we see more robust indications of this over coming days to at least give us a bit of festive cheer and interest. One thing we can definitely rely upon with the UK weather is that it can all change very quickly. Merry Christmas all.

    PS Whilst it's quiet, can I just thank the regular NW contributors and mods who give their time and knowledge so generously -  I've been reading and learning on here for more than ten years and it's become a welcome staple of my winter season. Cheers. Jim

     

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    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    7 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

    Could contain: Advertisement, Poster, Monkey, Mammal, Animal, Wildlife, Lion

     

    No but in all seriousness, that would be bitter! 

    60/40 on the ECM potentially coming out with a colder option this evening, its a hunch. No evidence backing it. I could be very wrong.

    -2 in London and -13.2 850's apparently. We can but hope! Actually that isn't even the best bit. Check out the precipitation spike although perhaps rain rather than snow (in London - maybe not further north) should ever it come to pass.

    gfs-london-gb-515n-0e-2.thumb.png.1a9c2060a14119ec8df0dda6ebd9b753.png

    Could contain:

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    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    Have been reluctant to post recently as persistent high pressure has delivered a rather groundhog day New Year which hardly seems worthy of comment from a coldie perspective but tentative signs a stormy end to the month could precipitate a pattern change although quite to what I’m struggling to fathom. A relentless PV continues to show no evidence of abating (quite the opposite in fact)…

    9DB3B73A-082A-46A4-8DDD-6433B19AF572.thumb.png.cc51b30745fb3e665678cde85067d622.png

    which leaves me lacking confidence in anything other than fleeting PM incursions and/or toppling northerlies although I get the sense we might start to see greater interest in the output as February draws closer. Still favouring interest from the NE although no real evidence of that yet but strat and trop remain far from coupled which makes me think all options remain on the table beyond the near term. Honestly, very little about this winter has been predictable which gives me comfort there may still be a surprise or two in the offing before we’re counting daffodils. Remaining hopeful!

     

    Edit: Just seen end of pub run. Yeah, that!

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    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    Another phantom northerly from GFS finally evaporates as we near the crux, sadly. High and dry, in more ways than one, from all models thus far. We are forced to look further out and hope the fiercely active PV rips itself in half or the weather gods throw us another glimmer of hope beyond the foreseeable. Thank goodness the models can reveal unexpected results miraculously quickly in this game, though not for a day or three based on the output this morning. Long way to go yet this winter and background factors remain favourable. Anyway, I always prefer Feb for a good dumping if we get nowt before Xmas (and I don’t mean fly-tipping - too much of that round here in the rurals as it is!).

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    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Looks to me as if the signal gets utterly lost, among the noise, by Day 7 or so? At least, that's how I see a perb that shows -18C T850s. Even if it is at Day 10!

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    Agree with that. Although if you're going to get lost, Perb 11 is exactly the way to do it.

    animvbc5.gifanimjvt4.gifanimvwc9.gif

    PV relocating almost exclusively East thereby allowing a Greenie high to roll into a Scandi high into a 2010ish redux. GEFS says 3% chance. Common sense says no chance! Let's see tonight's run can increase the odds (methinks probably not).

    EDIT: Hang on a minute....Northerly incoming 12z?

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    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    55 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    there are a few who seem to find it hard to cope with acronyms and shortened names which saves time when posting 

    So in summary a strong NE USA trough thwarts any short-term MAR on ECM whereas GFS sets up a pronto Scandi HP then splits the TPV with new NH profile allowing a robust GH despite -ve E'ly AAM anoms toward higher lats forcing weakly positive NAO/AO and a meandering MJO with +ve PNA during tepid winter La Nina and no SSW. All ends A-OK tho' with sub zero T850s and a blizzard in the south? LMAO.

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    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    Some great posts earlier - don't need to name names but thanks to those who've taken time to deliver some really detailed thoughts today. Surprised, as a result, to see one of the most striking Northerlies (ever?) modelled in recent times but not going to waste more than a passing, wishful second trying to justify its plausible existence other than to say the Op not without support and will be interesting to see the ensembles later. This, for example, from Control.

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    EDIT: Getting better and better. Enough now.

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    Great weather watching last few weeks peeps even if we finally ended up breaking a tooth on that Easterly-sourced sixpence before it fell through the cracks in the floorboards. Great post from @MATTWOLVES earlier, wishing him and everyone else on here a peaceful Christmas - hope Santa finally delivers that decent weather station just before the snow arrives beneath a stronking Scandi high in the New Year. Stay safe, treasure the important stuff, and thanks to all those that make this forum a must visit. Cheers!

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