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supernova

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    Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
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    Owt that's interesting
  • Weather Preferences
    Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express

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  1. Just realised that if I’d have spent the same amount of hours doing overtime at work this winter that I’ve spent gawping at Siberian-sourced weather porn on the NW forum, I could have afforded a week in Lapland dressed in an elf costume throwing snowballs at Santa.
  2. JMA it is then. Very alright with that. EDIT: Shudda gone to Specavers. That'll teach me to jump to conclusions. Apologies. It's obviously inverted.
  3. Not the ECM 168 we wanted to see but I’m not convinced by it either. Odd evolution. Tomorrow may shed more light but not quite ready to chuck the towel in yet.
  4. Agreed. DL’s original point well made. Good point on the other side from DPower too, that not only may the downwelling be slower but also weaker than anticipated. Both likely, I think.
  5. Eh? Looks further west to me but I’ll wait to be sure before posting definitively (!).
  6. That's not something you get to say very often about a run like that! Exciting times.
  7. GFS Para happy to join the ice party. Interest throughout the run but hard not to share this little beauty, even though it's far into FI.
  8. Sorry Feb I misread those anomalies. Good spot from you and @karlos1983. Yes, of course, average would be fine if the cold finally prevails. And though not comparing winters, we do love a NE flow on the east coast (unforecast Polar Low came bounding in 2010 and buried us)! Here's hoping. Anyway, much to cheer within the ECM outlook tonight - let's hoping the Euro's have the edge currently.
  9. Fixed that spelling for you @northwestsnow Honestly GFS is on one this week. Not that any of us have a crystal ball but seriously the swings from run to run make even the Brexit negotiations look stable. Let’s see what rhe Para has to offer...little change up to 96... potentially slightly less progressive?
  10. GFS Para FV3 better wedge alignment and heights up to Iceland compared to 18z GFS at 144 onwards although @Mucka‘s point about the slider well made. Then by next Friday, Para advecting continental cold Eastwards whilst GFS has us in significantly warmer uppers (although unsure quite how cold the Para gets as it’s stalled on Meteociel again).
  11. Hard to find much cheer for coldies in the models tonight, as evidenced by the downcast tone in so many of today's posts. As Ventrice pointed out earlier today, we're talking a different gravy to the SSW in Feb. Matt Hugo also quick to reference widespread surprise at lack of amplitude compared to predictions. Thank goodness we have the potential effects of an ongoing SSW to provide a sliver of hope for late Jan onwards. Might come to nothing, of course, but imagine the mood in here if we didn't even have that? So it seems forecasting the UK's weather is, ultimately, pretty straight forward...whatever you think might happen, or most want to happen, is almost certainly not going to occur in the way anybody expects! Models might be better than they were, but the glimmer of light they shine into the future remains dimmed by nature's dominant unpredictability. Another reason to hope we might see some of the white stuff before winter's done with us, perhaps.
  12. Don't think these have been posted yet today. ECM Op 850's sitting on or above the mean initially then tracking toward the colder end of the suite after Jan 8th. Be interesting to see whether tonight's ensemble trend colder still as indicated by GFS/ICON so far today. Cool, cold, or winter proper? Still much to be decided I feel.
  13. Return of the Bling. Finally, a chart that isn't grey. Here's hoping. HNY all.
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