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  1. *Pops in for new season Hunt for Cold. Pops out again.* GFS Op a warm outlier post day five (London GEFS posted earlier) but today's predicted synoptics still mighty interesting compared to the dross we're normally trying to shake the upsides from - albeit not as evocative as some of yesterday's eye candy. Good to be back, despite some of the naysayers already posting! Blocky and coldish? I'd say.
  2. Top banana MWB, thanks everso Also explains HIRLAM's interest in building accumulation more intensely than previous runs.
  3. Surprisingly quiet in here all things considered. No doubt everyone's heading to the regionals. Meanwhile, can any of our more experienced members help me understand the potential consequences of a convergence zone being as we seeing them drawn on UKMO faxes over the next couple of days? Two air flows converging in the same area? Constant showers? Couldn't find a useful explanation anywhere.
  4. Seem to remember UKMO managed to scare us a few times by overblowing the high in the run up to Beast 1. Time for corrections/upgrades next few days. GFS meanwhile looks awful. Case in point, GFS has moved the high slightly further north in the latest run. 06 vs 12z.
  5. -6 and a fresh covering from late last night as we got caught in a streamer for quite a few hours after dark. Snow day for the kids finally, so we’re off sledging. Needless to say they're thrilled
  6. The Beast finally showed up this morning, lots of heavy showers and long may it continue. -4 here currently, between 2" & 3" in total. Not quite 2010 but good fun nonetheless!
  7. Will it won't it? Interesting few days trying to figure out whether the winter Azores low slides harmlessly to our south and keeps us in cold north easterlies with a reinvigorated Greenie high or whether it makes a disruptive journey north to mix in a nail-biting amount of mild air. Control shows what does happen if the end-of-week low (or procession of lows if you're the GEM) all depart without too much fuss but either way, one of the top ten (possibly top five) coldest weather events in a generation about to land, unstoppably, unbelievably, on our doorstep. Enjoy!
  8. Think ECM just won the biggest BAFTA of the night (Bloody Amazing Frigid Troposphere Award). Not sure what happens after this chart but there’s still blocking in places we’re not used to seeing it. Am guessing the UK would remain iced for some time to come.
  9. SIGNIFICANT upgrade to ensembles this morning. Plus you could probably touch -16 uppers if you jumped off Cleethorpes pier (before you quickly froze to death)
  10. Flactuate (VERB): Pron: Flack-Tu-Ate. Def: To agitate weather forum members beyond the point of excitement. In extreme circumstances flactuation can lead to site-host failure, off-topic posts, banning of over-zealous contributors, and individual delusion leading to "winter is over" "where's the breakdown" and "not as good as nineteen something" posts. Also (ADVERB), flactuate, spouting of hot air when a model is summarised prematurely. GFS too far north! Breakdown imminent! When said model goes on to produce snowiest evolution yet. I requote @SnowBallz Next week is mega.
  11. A @SnowBallz and @Team Jo ramp in the same week?...must be some sort of 10-20-30-30,000-year event approaching Overall consistency from the models has been exemplary today and the METO's preference for the ECM:UKMO synoptic outlook further highlight's next week's potential for an historic cold spell. GFS continues to taunt with variations on a theme but the cold's coming, that's not in doubt, the issue now is how hard it might snow and where. Too soon to say beyond general guidance oft repeated this week but for once let's enjoy the ride rather than hang ourselves with specifics in the confident knowledge model watching for the next week or two is going to be not just interesting but almost certain to pay dividends for many. Great stuff. If the Met are issuing daily guidance you can be assured the fan's about to ice over.
  12. Site crash arrived at the worst possible time. Wife's birthday and was forced to do the hoovering. Thankfully the distraction allowed me to view the ECM in one sitting. Jeez, did we die and go to heaven? JMA sums up today's output pretty accurately (stella).
  13. They'll certainly be plenty of those if today's charts don't verify...and probably a few on the roads if they do.
  14. You're right. Also fits in well with Ventrice's recent comments about AO tanking by minus three sigma (current record 2.7 I think). Could be a record breaker this one.