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Djdazzle

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Everything posted by Djdazzle

  1. Djdazzle
    Don't expect detail for next Sunday and Monday yet. The models were wrong about today only yesterday. Wasn't meant to be cloudy today.
  2. Djdazzle
    The 6z has actually gone back more to the high temps.
  3. Djdazzle
    Agreed. Small adjustments in this setup can make big differences down the line. What I would like to see expunged is the trend to bring in an easterly flow. The 6z seems to have bucked that.
  4. Djdazzle
    40.6C at one of the London stations (Monday 18th July).
  5. Djdazzle
    Don't forget though - the BBC will be using old data for their forecasts. This time yesterday, the record looked more likely to be broken. However, if the trend on the GFS 6z continues on the 12z runs, we may well be back in business.
  6. Djdazzle
    I think we need to see the 12z runs first.
  7. Djdazzle
    I think the GFS 6z shows that we shouldn't write off chances of breaking records just yet. We have seen this before. In August 2003, the peak of the heat was forecast to be gone before 9th / 10th August. However, as it approached, the models trended hotter, which is what actually transpired.
  8. Djdazzle
    In answer to a previous post, Paris is not always 2-3 C warmer than London. Today is a case in point, with London actually warmer than Paris.
  9. Djdazzle
    The usual under-playing of temperatures. They are always below what actually transpites.
  10. Djdazzle
    16 straight days above 21C is hardly noteworthy in July in southern England!
  11. Djdazzle
    To be any exceptional heat has always been way into FI.
  12. Djdazzle
    True - think we will see 5+ days 0f 30C, which is very good, with a couple of days topping 90F.
  13. Djdazzle
    As much as I don't rate the BBC forecasts, it shows what difference a small shift can make. Although unlikely, I wouldn't want to bet too much money against Saturday being very hot in the SE.
  14. Djdazzle
    I'd say an outside chance, but wouldn't rule it out.
  15. Djdazzle
    Date record on Friday is 33.9C, so could be under threat.
  16. Djdazzle
    True - this place is great, but it’s frustrating that some people never learn from past experience!
  17. Djdazzle
    And are people really believing rainfall charts which are often wrong at 24 hours away?
  18. Djdazzle
    The site is definitely faulty. Before this year, it hardly ever appeared at the top of the leader board.
  19. Djdazzle
    30C will be surpassed widely today. Already exceeding 28C in some places before midday. I’d say today’s max will be in the 32-33 range somewhere.
  20. Djdazzle
    Indeed. Somewhere likely to max at 32-33C by the looks of things.
  21. Djdazzle
    Wasn’t the GFS forecasting the heat to be wiped away by Monday a couple of days ago? Seems it was a bit progressive, not for the first time.
  22. Djdazzle
    Add to above - August 2019 was rescued by the amazing bank holiday weekend. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday saw three consecutive days of 33C in London - quite exceptional for late August.
  23. Djdazzle
    Last August went downhill rapidly after the first week though. It wasn’t dreadful, but nothing special. The CET was helped massively by the early heatwave.
  24. Djdazzle
    I’m certainly not writing off August based on the output. My point was merely that my expectations of the month are very low these days!
  25. Djdazzle
    I always expect August to be poor as the whole dynamic of the month seems to have changed in the last two decades.
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