Djdazzle
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Posts posted by Djdazzle
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4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
we reached the low 40s here last year for the best part of a week..was no emergency life just went on as normal
You also get far more extended hot spells than the UK.
I daresay that having a far lower population density helps too.
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2 minutes ago, samthefootball said:
It doesn't need to be a stay at home order one little bit. The majority of people know what to do to keep safe and that is lots of sun cream if out, drinking plenty of water, wet flannels over body, cold shower/baths and windows open but shutting the curtains to keep it cool. The weather where I am on Tuesday even looks worse now then on Monday with it getting colder on Tuesday and chance of storms later on in the day. I am going for a meal out on Tuesday evening so pretty sure that won't be cancelled
A lot of people don't know how to behave in a normal hot spell - and this is far from normal.
It only takes a minority of people to act in a stupid way in order for it to have serious affects on everybody else.
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1 hour ago, The Tall Weatherman said:
Don’t compare heat to COVID. Heat is on a whole different level dangerous if kept out in it.
COVID isn't dangerous to 99% of the population. The extreme heat next week will be dangerous to most people if they don't take reasonable precautions.
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4 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:
This isn't China!
No - but remember Covid . . .
The last thing we need are people driving around unnecessarily, breaking down and putting strain on the emergency services. Or people being stuck underground in London.
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Taken from Met Office site:
What to expect
Population-wide adverse health effects experienced, not limited to those most vulnerable to extreme heat, leading to serious illness or danger to life. Government advice is that 999 services should be used in emergencies only; seek advice from 111 if you need non-emergency health advice.
Substantial changes in working practices and daily routines will be required
High risk of failure of heat-sensitive systems and equipment, potentially leading to localised loss of power and other essential services, such as water or mobile phone services
Significantly more people visiting coastal areas, lakes and rivers, leading to an increased risk of water safety incidents
Delays on roads and road closures, along with delays and cancellations to rail and air travel, with significant welfare issues for those who experience even moderate delays
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Surely there will be a "stay at home" instruction issued?
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35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
I'm sure (well almost sure!) someone posted something along the lines of 'there's nothing about the heatwave on the BBC's website'? Well, I can assure said poster that there most definitely is!
Heatwave: Met Office issues highest extreme heat warning
WWW.BBC.CO.UKThe highest alert for parts of England means there is a danger to life amid exceptional heat.And, just as all this is going down, Mourdant & Truss (does anyone here have a hernia?) are battling it out over who can dispense with HMG's Zero Carbon policy the quickest!
I think I posted my comment before the level 4 was issued.
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Even the quicker ICON will give a 40+ day on Tuesday.
And, it's the ICON . . .
Just now, sheikhy said:Actually now looks to have joined ecm with a quicker push east at 84 hours!!maybe a bit better than ecm!
You are hanging on to every tiny inter-run variation! It's not good for your health . . .
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12 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:
Don't think I've ever seen the white colours appear on the MetOffice forecast before. Is this is to sustain into tomorrow there is no doubt that a red warning will have to be issued.
Tomorrow is too late for the red warning. It needs to go out today to give businesses enough time to make contingency plans.
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38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
"Big impacts on health": yet there's nothing on the BBC website. What is wrong with this country? People need to be warned now - most people I've spoken to just think it's going to be a hot couple of days.
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4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
So ecm goes from slowest to quickest to clearing heat!!think it might swing back this evening!!
But even that isn't quick enough to prevent 40C on Tuesday.
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As has been mentioned, even the ECM (the most progressive model with clearing the heat away on Tuesday) would lead to a 40C+ day.
I'd be assuming that bets will be off today with regards to beating the record - it's pretty much certain that it will go on Monday and Tuesday.
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Just now, The Tall Weatherman said:
This must be a model glitch! 38 degrees at midnight seems a tad over the top !
That's the highest temperature from 18z to 00z. Doesn't mean it'll be 38C at midnight.
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Just now, CreweCold said:
I’ve been saying this for days but keep getting lambasted for it. This is serious.
40C is more than bearable if you can sit in a shady place, have lots of fluids and don't need to exert yourself physically.
The above is not the case for the majority though.
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27 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I do believe a red warning is being discussed by the pros, but nothing set in stone yet. They usually issue them within 24 hours of impacts iirc?!
24 hours notice would be insufficient. People need to start to take this seriously now.
I'd expect schools to be closed.
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36 minutes ago, clark3r said:
BBC have Heathrow down for 39 on Tuesday now, met office 38, confidence for record breaking heat increases, still time for changes though, but big increase increases in chance since yesterday
Never seen a temperature of 39C on these apps.
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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
I'm satisfied that Monday is now a cert - model agreement on the general pattern is extensive. Maximum on that day I'm seeing as between 35C and 37C.
The entire ECM ensemble set gives little grounds for 38C or more on Monday so I don't think we'll get to the record on that particular day, in spite of what other models say.
Brave call just because of ECM!
I think it's at least 50:50 that the record goes on Monday. And then again on Tuesday,
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The morning temperatures modelled for Tuesday are crazy. It reminds me a bit of July 1st 2015 when it was 34C by 11am. Looks even more extreme than that.
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The shorter range, hi-res models now starting to come into range. As was mentioned earlier, there are a couple of 40C plots on the UKV. ARPEGE etc will be interesting.
@CreweCold has a point in that warning needs to be issued.
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
Well ‘whisked away’ still means upper 30s for a lot of folk. More than enough. Monday night shows temperatures failing to fall below about 25c for some…
Insane minima.
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Yes it’s an epic failure from the models (and pros) for today.
I’ll reserve judgement on tomorrow!
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49 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Very strange, there’s quite a bit of precip today across the Midlands into EA, yet the models showed none of this and even the latest runs show nothing? I knew I wasn’t going mad when I suggested that the models have lost the plot recently in dealing with CAPE values and precip. You can’t have next to no unstable air with a 500hpa low overlapping 15-20c 850’s and higher at the surface. Clearly there’s a problem.
I tried to make a similar point earlier. The models have been pretty off the mark for today’s conditions at very short range.
So I still think anything is possible for Sunday - Tuesday. Write off 40C at your peril!
UKV had temps of 29 today, and it’s likely to be 32.
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Just now, bluearmy said:
The plume itself has only ever looked like being a 24/48 hour event. If it’s 36 hours and arrives overnight then that really mean only one day offers the chance to break the record. We won’t know for a couple, days yet how quickly that trough will come through. If it doesn’t engage with the Atlantic jet then it may look very different !
The met office website was showing today to be high clouds in the Home Counties since Sunday
Yes agreed about the high cloud - but that in itself wouldn't prevent some sunshine. It's been more like mid-level cloud.
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11 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:
Fax charts are your best option for the detail. They have correctly showed the front and associated cloud and rain for a number of days.
Yes, I saw those. But Meto forecast even this morning went for sunny spells in the south.
3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:30-33c maximums
Doubt it will be that low. Just the usual inter-run variation.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Cloud forecasts at that range are hopeless.
The record will go on Monday anyway.