[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

It’s highly likely that the trough will be further west than currently modelled.

Do people not learn that the GFS beyond 120 is going to be subject to change from run to run?

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

People talking like the GFS is correct. It hasn’t verified yet. I wasn’t given a crystal ball when I signed up for the forum - I feel cheated because others clearly were given theirs!

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

ICON 12z 180 chart supports the earlier trend to keep the low out west with HP to the east.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

You just said that models are unreliable beyond a week ,which is correct ,but you're saying a trend towards some heat building during the second week of July which is about ten days away.

A bit like when you post day 10 charts to back up your posts . . .

In all seriousness, nothing is nailed on past day 6 really. But there are trends.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

I feel that this trend is gathering momentum. And there is a lot of hot air to our south.

The models may trend back towards the UK trough scenario, but the new trend for the cut off low is now at the edge of the reliable time frame. 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

ECM showing what is more than possible.it was only a matter of time before an op run produced something hotter.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

You couldn’t draw a worse GFS run and thankfully ECM doesn’t support it.

We just need a bit of pressure to build to our east as per the long term signal. The ECM run would then be very hot.

Despite what some day, it’s quite finely poised and people shouldn’t get hysterical about what the GFS shows.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

ECM is much better than GFS. Potential for some heat if the low was only slightly further west.

Aren’t the EC extended indicated a return to more settled.

The GFS is swinging around like a pendulum from run to run, and so are its ensembles.

 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Well it would be a seismic event if July was cooler than June. So rarely happens and I think even with a poor July the CET will end up higher than June.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

27 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

A far cry from what the seasonal models had shown. Very poor performance from them.

Everything pointed to a HP dominated July. But we all know that the seasonal models are a lot of guesswork and based on probabilities. You can stake all of your money on not drawing a two from a pack of cards. The odds are good, but not guaranteed.

 

As much as long range forecasting has improved in recent years, we probably are only 1% of the way to mastering it.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

28 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Progressive change this week to much more unsettled conditions as we approach the weekend. No change at all from last night runs and this morning’s…..

I recommend that you actually look at the charts before you post.

ECM is a less unsettled run than the 12z last night. Still unsettled, yes, but there are signs that there may be a way back to something more settled.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

The ECM this morning wouldn't need much tweaking to bring hot air from the continent back north again

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Best ECM for quite some time.

Could this be a new trend? Maybe the models overplayed the unsettled period?

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Let's hope the extended EC is onto something after week 1 of July.

I appreciate that it wasn't feasible to keep the pattern we've had for the past five weeks, but those who say that the outlook is standard UK weather are wrong - unless we've moved into late September rather than late June.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

I read Tamara’s post yesterday and it was insightful as as always. 

I realise that a signal is just that, but what we are seeing in the models is the complete opposite of whet was being signalled eg a high pressure dominated July.

Yes, things could pick up but the charts we are seeing are beyond vile - we’ve seen this pattern before, and it just locks in.

 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

ECM not as bad as its previous few runs. Still poor though.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

It does show just how useless the signals can be. Wasn’t July meant to be HP dominated?

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

ECM has little support though.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

26 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Really? Explain yourself please.

The 12z runs. And the signal remains for high pressure to the east of the UK into July.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

25 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The GFS also showing quite a deep atlantic low over Iceland - 10 days time, long way off, but they are very similiar.

True - the point I was making is that the ECM has the low much deeper earlier on than other models.

Think we will find out more tomorrow about where next week may potentially be heading.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

The ECM is at odds with most other output. I suspect it will come into line soon. It’s doing what the GFS usually does by over-deepening a depression.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

30 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not sure if an outlier, but seems a very plausible outcome to me, a temporary ridge development, warmest and driest in the SE then the atlantic sweeps through, it is the same theme of earlier runs and ECM, nothing odd about it. 

I suppose the current output is odd as it goes against what many of the other signals and anomalies have suggested would be the.case.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Excellent ECM. Heat gets blown away well into FI, but I'm sure that's being way too progressive.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

I think that our settled spell has broken down at the precise time that the Atlantic has woken up. Typical UK luck that.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I thought ecm looked better than the 12z yesterday especially earlier but then flattens the high a bit!!temps remain around mid twenties throughout for england especially eastern counties!!!wont mind that 00z ecm let me tell you!!

I'm not fussed as it's all in FI anyway. As long as all models show the pressure build starting next week (which they do), that's good enough for me.

18 minutes ago, AnnyPl said:

ECM and GFS are both very good models, and their forecasts are usually very accurate. However, it is always possible that the weather will not turn out as predicted.

I wouldn't say that GFS is usually as accurate as ECM though. Even ECM has its poor moments.