Djdazzle
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Posts posted by Djdazzle
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5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
That's an impressive Iberian high.
Anyone hoping for significant cold in the UK should review their expectations based on a chart like that. Just not going to happen with the HP stuck where it is.
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So lots of despondency over tin the model thread - unsurprisingly!
If people go looking for a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, they will end up disappointed.
There was never any good signs of a significantly cold spell this month. And even those small signs were way off in la la land.
I am going by the belief that there will be no significant cold spell this winter, at least in the south, because this seems to be the form horse these days. If we do get one, it will then be a pleasant surprise.
People need to lower their expectations massively.
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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
I feel more reserved today.
favoured evolution is wet and windy( now) followed by a sinking azores / uk high and back to wet and windy into Xmas.
Looks like Exeter agree...
That forecast would be correct 90% of the time in December. No surprise that Exeter go with it. Since some of their epic busts, is it me or do their forecasts seem more conservative now?
I'd take a UK high now, even a cloudy one. We need to dry out!
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Small crumbs that we may see something more seasonal as we move towards the final third of December,
Nothing to get excited about though - yet.
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I was never interested in this so-called snowy spell for the south, because it was in FI and there wasn't cross-model agreement. Time and time again, people set themselves up for a fall.
Going forward, the models aren't showing agreement on mild southwesterlies, which has to be a good thing for those who like the weather to be more seasonal. ECM hints at a northerly, although not a potent one.
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Calls into question why anybody ever takes the GFS that seriously when it can be so wrong at just 3 days away. It's an OK model for global patterns but useless for our part of the world. It always has been.
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The BBC forecasts are such a joke. Gone from 25C to 23C for Sunday. No way on Earth is Sunday cooler than Saturday when every parameter suggests the opposite.
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31 minutes ago, richie3846 said:
I wonder if the forecast temperatures may also be affected by the rarity of the warm spell, for the time of year? There isn't much past experience, several date records for this stage in October, date back over a 100 years.
And temperatures in warm / hot spells often seem to get upgraded as the time approaches.
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A question: whyare upper temperatures of 20C only translating to 26C / 27C? I know it's October, but you'd expect a bit more than that. Even in Paris, it's only showing 27C.
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Models now firming up on a notable warm / hot spell for next weekend. October 8th date record looks under threat.
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28 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
Surely this ECM perturbation is one of the craziest ever for October in the UK?
That would be pushing 90F surely?
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This time last year, we were breaking records.
Far better than this awful dross.
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Yes, still in FI, but the GFS 6z also shows an improvement.
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54 minutes ago, danm said:Safe to say that next week is looking atrocious, but some signs in the latter stages of the GFS of an improvement at the end of the month and early August. First time I've seen anything like this in the models for a while. It's far, far out but may align with what others have been saying regarding the uptick in AAM showing up in the modelling as we approach August. Again, far too much in FI to take seriously, but worth keeping an eye on as ever to see if it becomes a sustained trend or not. It also shows a cut off low developing with plume potential:
Plume:
I'm not disputing what you personally want out of Summer, but most people are primarily looking for sunshine and warmth so they can get outdoors and enjoy the good weather before Autumn descends on us.
Yes, I don't understand why anyone would want anything other than sun and warmth in summer - we get enough dross for the rest of the year!
Tentative signs that the pattern may be changing as we near month's end. Won't be reading any predictions for August though after the epic failure of July's predictions!
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Just now, mb018538 said:
Summer as a whole isn't ruined just yet....June amazing, July terrible....if August is good then summer would still go down as a very good summer. We never have three amazing months in a row anyway (or very rarely), so all to play for. Just sit and wait now!
Many of the best summers have two great months and one more average one. I think having a terrible month like this will tarnish this summer, regardless of what August produces.
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People discussing the intricacies of day ten charts. Will they ever learn?
The ECM Is a slght improvement. Baby steps.
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37 minutes ago, Downburst said:
Luck has nothing to do with it. This is the climate and that's a fact. There are expectations that all summers are summary and the fact is that they are not, or not all the time. Now the last couple of weeks and perhaps another 10 days are simply normal in any give summer. We take the rough with the smooth here or move to the continent. I'm not having a dig, but you may as well ask Tamara there to dump the study and grab the dice and let us all know if we are getting a 6.
Point taken, but luck does come into it because there were a very unfortunate set of circumstances that lead us to the position. I know that we were spoilt last year, and that unsettled weather will happen. But to be stuck in this rut while so much of the continent is dry and sunny is a shame.
Tamara is a great poster, but even her great analyses can be thrown by unexpected changes.
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Hoping that something changes soon, especially when most of Europe is basking under blue skies and hot conditions. The UK is dreadfully unlucky.
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14 minutes ago, LRD said:
Yep, some improvement but beware of the GFS - it is a warm run (bordering on outlier at times) compared to its ensemble suite
That last UKMO chart looks primed for that low over Iceland to dive across us or just to our east too. Not great
Shows how bad things have got when an abysmal summer run like the GFS is almost a warm outlier.
Hoping this ridging being shown for next week gains some traction to rescue us from this horrid summer month.
Let’s see if ECM is any better.
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I get what people say about long range forecasts being a guide, but when the long range forecast ends up being the COMPLETE opposite of what was signalled for July, questions need to be asked.
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1 minute ago, Bristle Si said:
And it always has been, and always will be.
Very little has changed over the decades for our islands, in the great scheme of things. Contrary to what some are trying to tell us via numerous 'outlets'.
True, but this masks how much easier it is to achieve hot spells than was once the case. Achieving a temperature of 90F in summer is now virtually a given somewhere in UK in summer now.
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9 minutes ago, clark3r said:
Truth is we were spoilt last summer, June we were spoilt, expectations for summer are to high on here. Friday sat look warm humid potentially hot, then a revert to more unsettled weather, patience is needed for the next settled spell.
The longer range forecasts were pointing to a HP dominated July - that’s where the frustration is coming from.
Then again, we should know better than to trust those!
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3 minutes ago, danm said:
So we may as well stop viewing the models then till the 16th because the anomaly chart shows that?
The anomalies haven't actually been that accurate recently as far as I can see.
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10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
I do believe the low will be further west. Most of the 12z suite have already done so compared to the earlier runs.
So yes, no only can’t it be discounted, I’d say it’s becoming a serious possibility.
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The first spell was only ever modelled way out in FI, so it can hardly be seen as a failure. I'd understand it more if it's gone wrong at T72 (which has happened on numerous occasions).
Models look like standard December fayre at the moment. Maybe January will see a pattern change.