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Posts posted by Djdazzle

  1. 1 hour ago, Bradley in Kent said:

    It's turning out to be a beautiful day, especially for a Sunday with no work or other commitments. 

    I do think though for those who are looking to exceed 30c, it could be disappointing as there's cloud trying to form already. The dew point is high, the 850s are fairly cool and there's a bit of convergence going on, so I can see further formation happening, wouldn't be surprised if a shower popped up. 

    The record is nowhere near to being broken anyway, otherwise I'd be more preoccupied with the cloud, but today, I don't really care!

    Let's just enjoy this week before it cools down again!

    30C will be surpassed widely today. Already exceeding 28C in some places before midday.

    I’d say today’s max will be in the 32-33 range somewhere.

  2. 2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    True Augusts for over 15 years have been poor ( since 2003?) ... but 2019 had a heatwave over the bank holiday and August 2020 was very warm, CET was +2c, we had 6 consecutive days where 34c+ was recorded, 5 tropical nights, 4 daily temperature records broken.... so maybe the trend of poor Augusts has changed.

    Last August went downhill rapidly after the first week though. It wasn’t dreadful, but nothing special. The CET was helped massively by the early heatwave.

  3. 6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Mid July, mid summer! High pressure overhead, widespread mid to high 20s, sunshine and dry weather. If you were to ask me for ideal synoptics this point in the summer it would be what is on offer.. now entering 'high summer'..

    I suppose in high summer, a lot of us are looking for the maximum impact in terms of high temperatures. It's quite unbelievable that we haven't reached 30C by this point - that is a real shock.

    • Like 1
  4. 3 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Well, yes, if you consider FI to be T+144, that's valid.

    I've gone out to T+240 and I'm discussing that output which to me doesn't suggest a prolonged dry and settled spell.

    I did also say there was a lot to be resolved.

    Well FI is 144 in most people’s definition. And even 144 is pushing it sometimes!

    • Like 2
  5. 1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    But the background signals have never looked strongly in favour of a blazing summer...so I'm not quite sure what these background signals are that some are supposedly seeing?

    Nothing has been suggestive of anything other than a mixed summer. That's exactly what we're seeing. 

    True - but little different to the last two summers. At least they produced some hot spells, and I’m hoping this one does the same (although I’m sure you won’t! 😂😂)

  6. 53 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I’m still confident that July will be hot in the latter half, the background signals seem to push for that, although in the short term, I admit that is happening slower than I would like.  Then you have to factor in the MO CP forecasts which are bullish for a hot and dry rest of summer, difficult to fathom from the current outputs but it does just rest on that shift from the Azores through to Scandi, still think around 15th July.  

    Don’t take this as a dig because it certainly isn’t! You were fairly confident that the first part of July would be fine a couple of weeks ago. I hope you’re right this time mate!

    • Like 1
  7. 4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    It looks nice - but it’s stuck at day 10 again and hasn’t got any closer the last couple of days. Now looking pretty mixed to unsettled out until Wednesday, before Thursday and Friday turn drier.

    Temperatures fairly uninspiring for what is now the peak of summer, high teens scraping low 20s at times. We need to squeeze something decent here as august is starting to look decidedly dodgy. Nina setting back in and a massive standing wave possibly setting up and not moving all month, which usually means crappy weather for the UK.

    August will be a hot month then - I'm starting to doubt the validity of any long term signals this summer. 😁

    We keep getting dangled with promising anomaly charts in the 10-14 day range, but that's where they have stayed for the past three weeks.

    As long as one of the big three shows unsettled, that is what it will be it seems.


  8. 20 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    ECM really delivers a really poor weekend again, I was hoping the low would at least hold off for Saturday but it just surges eastwards through Friday night. Showers and plenty of cloud both Saturday and Sunday temps clearly going to struggle mid to high teens at best I would have thought. Monday looks a howler. Then showers and cool, breezy conditions through the week. While pressure rises unfortunately even by day ten on the ECM we are still stuck under an upper trough so mild and showery. Could be some really poor sunshine totals in places. 

    Not supported by the anomalies though. 😃

    • Like 3
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