[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Just seems that we have been stuck in this pattern for months. I can't remember a time when it's been as long as this.

The pattern will change at some point. And I doubt the models will pick it up at long range. But nothing settled at the moment in the models.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 ANYWEATHER Agreed. Anything is preferable to the current crud. Hoping the models start to pick up on a dry spell and run with it. Over the past few weeks, every time that a dry spell has appeared at day 7 / 8, it hasn't made it to reality.

[Model banter and emotions]

I'm hoping the models start to pick up something settled and warmer soon. The past 6 - 7 weeks have been the vilest period of weather I can remember. Nothing warm, nothing cold - just endless unsettled crud, lack of sunshine and too much rainfall.

The good news is that this pattern will end at some point.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Some people will never admit it, but most long range forecasts / background signals / teleconnections are little more than guesswork. I understand that there is a science behind it., but clearly they are next to useless.

And next winter, these people will have learnt nothing from this winter and still telling us that we are going to get some cold.

At the start of this winter, I said that any cold we get down south will be a bonus. That should be the mantra of all winters, regardless of what the models etc predict.

I do not want cold in March. It's a spring month, so I'm now looking for the first 21C of the year.

[Model banter and emotions]

 weathercold Agreed. And the usual suspects will learn nothing from this winter, and will ramp it all up again next time the models / signals hint at a possibility of cold.

In some ways, we've made great advances in forecasting but in other ways, we've only scratched the surface.

This winter has been a real eye-opener for how badly the UKMO and ECM have performed. Yet people will still say that they "can't both be wrong" at T96.

I for one am now enjoying feeling the stronger February sun on my skin and looking forward to a warm spring (which no doubt will have loads of northern blocking!!!)

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Do people not learn from past mistakes?

None of the models will be on the mark for later this week. GFS will move towards the rest, and the rest will move towards the GFS. It's just a question of which will move the most. This happens a little at a time, so that you think one model is backtracking, when in fact they are converging on a solution.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 nick sussex I called time on this winter several weeks ago. Despite promising synoptics and background signals, something always goes wrong.

GFS aside, there are more ways of snow not happening at the end of the week than vice-versa.

If we do get anything wintry, see it as a huge bonus.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @northwestsnow Northern blocking has always been more common in spring than winter.

Some people swear by the background signals - but as time goes on, I pay less and less attention to them because the only time they seem to be reliable is when they show zonal!

As the days lengthen, my mind now starts to wander towards spring. We're talking mid-February for any chance of cold, and by then the synoptics need to be that bit more special as the sun is strengthening.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I’ll join you all for the ride, but with zero expectations anything cold will come of it.

Having said that, the archives show plenty of instances where a seemingly zonal pattern quickly turned into a blocking one.

It would be great for a flip to happen as quickly as we’re about to flip to mild.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

50 minutes ago, MattH said:

It is highly likely that the rest of January, beyond the end of this week of course, will 'come and go' with no significant cold synoptics in play. We look towards February then for the renewed risk, which still hasn't changed.

January, overall, mind is likely to be something of a disappointment, as the change to colder synoptics now most certainly wasn't expected to be removed as quickly nor as easily as is now on the way from this forthcoming weekend onwards.

The ebb and flow of the processes behind the GSDM certainly have some influence here, despite clearly the AAM not falling anywhere near the same levels as we started off the winter, back in the first half of December. As I mentioned the other day though it is the strat developments, especially within the lower levels of the strat, that will primarily aid in changing the pattern. The recent pushing and pulling of the vortex, with a low-level split (circa 100-150mb) an evolution that could not have been foreseen some weeks ago.

We can see this again on the PV plots and the standard 500mb height charts...Note the split and separate lobe over N America, ejected eastwards and boom, a return to a solid vortex in its usual locale.

It is this, without question that is the key driver for the rapid change to a more +ve NAO regime looking ahead - Ironically, it has been the troposphere that has 'led the winter dance' so far, with the stratosphere having little influence, but the recent weakening and split of the vortex, again ironically, actually helping now to end the current cold spell and bring us back to a more 'usual' winter time pattern. If the split hadn't occurred or occurred differently, then the outlook may well have been different, but that's all 'if, but and maybe'.

Looking further ahead there is still no reason to write off the rest of winter, in any shape or form - The MJO remains active, another +GLAAM is on the way and just as happened in late Dec/early Jan this will be another interesting "test" of the processes at play within the GSDM to help alter the up-coming +NAO pattern. There are likely to be a lot of hard-going synoptics to get through first and, again, by the looks that will take us now to the end of January at the earliest.

Cheers, Matt.

 

 

I think that this post is very informative and should help to ground those people who, in future, claim that cold, blocking scenarios are likely to persist due to background drivers etc. There are just some things that cannot be foreseen or modelled, even at medium range.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

41 minutes ago, Vikos said:

A lot of moaining going on here. Why? Just because this mild interlude? Some will rub their eyes… no confidence in cold spells but mild is rock solid carved in stone? 

Yes, because that is how it normally works out. Mild Atlantic-driven weather is our default pattern, and thus what we should expect.

When the models show that, it's more likely to be correct.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

44 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

So what are the forecasters seeing for Feb. I'm hearing there are strong signals. Am here to learn so could they be wrong??

Strong signals are meaningless I’m afraid. As can be seen from the pattern that’s due to take hold in the next 7 days. Everything was pointing to a blocked January. Lesson to be leant there!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, saintkip said:

And look how far south the lows are. Dull

It's very frustrating - we finally get the lows going a long way south at the same time that the Greenland blocking disappears.

Further to my last post, the anomalies should also not escape criticism here. Weren't they also showing strong blocking over Greenland?

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Regardless of the modelling, what is likely next week is quite pitiful compared to what was almost promised by some on here. Back in the 80's, this would be nothing notable.

Lessons for next time:

The models grossly overestimated the Greenland blocking strength and longevity.

The teleconnections don't guarantee anything.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

56 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

The pros also gave 2 other options, they said unlikely, but all the same was on table. And it now looks like the southerly track has become a lot more likely. Expect updates 

I’m surprised that the pros said the southerly track was unlikely, since most LP systems tend to track further south than initially modelled. Presumably they would know this?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The models point to a cold week but bbc weather app forecasts don’t reflect this. 5C in Essex next week is only 1C below average.

Some on here were talking about ice days earlier.

It’s quite  amazing that when the models pick up a mild signal, it’s rarely wrong!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

13 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Nah, once GFS gets in a pickle like this you just have to let it get on with it. 

FI is probably day 6 at the moment. 

I'd say day 5 at a push at the moment!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I think that people who have been obsessively watching the models of later (me included) can lose sight of the bigger picture.

We have been chasing the cold for a long time, and it seems it will come. However, what seems to be coming is a watered-down version of what was modelled a while back. The cold doesn't look severe, even in the north. And the longevity seems to be have been slowly eroded too.

This is s shame, because we should have been able to achieve much better with the  teleconnections and drivers that are in play.

Maybe the models will start to pick up on something more substantial later the month. Many of the best historical cold spells had one or two lesser attempts preceding them.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

19 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

I called this, people get too excited by runs that are days out. Always proceed with caution.

You called what? That chart is 10 days away, so by using that chart to support your idea is equally wrong.

Your chart has no more chance of verifying that the ones that are showing cold.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

If it does turn out to be a 7 day cold spell, that would be very disappointing with all the positive signs that were / are present.

Personally, I think that T96 is the limit of any credibility at the moment. There is far too much uncertainty beyond that, to the point where the OP runs are effectively useless.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

18 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Today’s EC46 is a bit.. grim! 

Weren’t they showing Greenland blocking a couple of days ago?

Cannot be taken seriously if they can flip like that.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

That ECM run is horrific. Everything fell into place in the wrong way.

Highly unlikely that everything would so perfectly wrong like that.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The Met Office won't change their update based on the GFS 6z because unlike some on here, they don't hang on to every Op run. 

If the 12z suite (including ECM and UKMO) show similar, they may consider it then.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

I don't see everything being watered down?

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

19 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Cannon fodder model? It shows the nearly the exact same as the ECM at day 7/8… 

The ECM hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory either. Blind following the blind!

ECM isn’t the amazing model that some seem to think. It’s had its fair share of disasters.