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Everything posted by Djdazzle

  1. True - this place is great, but it’s frustrating that some people never learn from past experience!
  2. And are people really believing rainfall charts which are often wrong at 24 hours away?
  3. The site is definitely faulty. Before this year, it hardly ever appeared at the top of the leader board.
  4. 30C will be surpassed widely today. Already exceeding 28C in some places before midday. I’d say today’s max will be in the 32-33 range somewhere.
  5. Wasn’t the GFS forecasting the heat to be wiped away by Monday a couple of days ago? Seems it was a bit progressive, not for the first time.
  6. Add to above - August 2019 was rescued by the amazing bank holiday weekend. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday saw three consecutive days of 33C in London - quite exceptional for late August.
  7. Last August went downhill rapidly after the first week though. It wasn’t dreadful, but nothing special. The CET was helped massively by the early heatwave.
  8. I’m certainly not writing off August based on the output. My point was merely that my expectations of the month are very low these days!
  9. I always expect August to be poor as the whole dynamic of the month seems to have changed in the last two decades.
  10. I think cloud predictions are almost as poor as the precipitation predictions!
  11. Ir will likely be GFS being correct as the model showing the worst outcome is usually correct. That’s the way it seems to go more often than not in the UK! Let’s see what ECM says later.
  12. I suppose in high summer, a lot of us are looking for the maximum impact in terms of high temperatures. It's quite unbelievable that we haven't reached 30C by this point - that is a real shock.
  13. So another shot at a good few days of hot weather is taken away. We just don't seem to be able to get a decent break this summer.
  14. I agree with that - we all look beyond 144, but usually just for fun!
  15. Well FI is 144 in most people’s definition. And even 144 is pushing it sometimes!
  16. True - but little different to the last two summers. At least they produced some hot spells, and I’m hoping this one does the same (although I’m sure you won’t! )
  17. Don’t take this as a dig because it certainly isn’t! You were fairly confident that the first part of July would be fine a couple of weeks ago. I hope you’re right this time mate!
  18. August will be a hot month then - I'm starting to doubt the validity of any long term signals this summer. We keep getting dangled with promising anomaly charts in the 10-14 day range, but that's where they have stayed for the past three weeks. As long as one of the big three shows unsettled, that is what it will be it seems.
  19. UKMO looks good going forward. GFS 12z is so different to the 6z, I'm not convinced!
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