Djdazzle
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Djdazzle replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just seems that we have been stuck in this pattern for months. I can't remember a time when it's been as long as this. The pattern will change at some point. And I doubt the models will pick it up at long range. But nothing settled at the moment in the models. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Djdazzle replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ANYWEATHER Agreed. Anything is preferable to the current crud. Hoping the models start to pick up on a dry spell and run with it. Over the past few weeks, every time that a dry spell has appeared at day 7 / 8, it hasn't made it to reality. -
I'm hoping the models start to pick up something settled and warmer soon. The past 6 - 7 weeks have been the vilest period of weather I can remember. Nothing warm, nothing cold - just endless unsettled crud, lack of sunshine and too much rainfall. The good news is that this pattern will end at some point.
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Some people will never admit it, but most long range forecasts / background signals / teleconnections are little more than guesswork. I understand that there is a science behind it., but clearly they are next to useless. And next winter, these people will have learnt nothing from this winter and still telling us that we are going to get some cold. At the start of this winter, I said that any cold we get down south will be a bonus. That should be the mantra of all winters, regardless of what the models etc predict. I do not want cold in March. It's a spring month, so I'm now looking for the first 21C of the year.
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weathercold Agreed. And the usual suspects will learn nothing from this winter, and will ramp it all up again next time the models / signals hint at a possibility of cold. In some ways, we've made great advances in forecasting but in other ways, we've only scratched the surface. This winter has been a real eye-opener for how badly the UKMO and ECM have performed. Yet people will still say that they "can't both be wrong" at T96. I for one am now enjoying feeling the stronger February sun on my skin and looking forward to a warm spring (which no doubt will have loads of northern blocking!!!)
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Djdazzle replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Do people not learn from past mistakes? None of the models will be on the mark for later this week. GFS will move towards the rest, and the rest will move towards the GFS. It's just a question of which will move the most. This happens a little at a time, so that you think one model is backtracking, when in fact they are converging on a solution. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Djdazzle replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
nick sussex I called time on this winter several weeks ago. Despite promising synoptics and background signals, something always goes wrong. GFS aside, there are more ways of snow not happening at the end of the week than vice-versa. If we do get anything wintry, see it as a huge bonus. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Djdazzle replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@northwestsnow Northern blocking has always been more common in spring than winter. Some people swear by the background signals - but as time goes on, I pay less and less attention to them because the only time they seem to be reliable is when they show zonal! As the days lengthen, my mind now starts to wander towards spring. We're talking mid-February for any chance of cold, and by then the synoptics need to be that bit more special as the sun is strengthening. -
Regardless of the modelling, what is likely next week is quite pitiful compared to what was almost promised by some on here. Back in the 80's, this would be nothing notable. Lessons for next time: The models grossly overestimated the Greenland blocking strength and longevity. The teleconnections don't guarantee anything.
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I think that people who have been obsessively watching the models of later (me included) can lose sight of the bigger picture. We have been chasing the cold for a long time, and it seems it will come. However, what seems to be coming is a watered-down version of what was modelled a while back. The cold doesn't look severe, even in the north. And the longevity seems to be have been slowly eroded too. This is s shame, because we should have been able to achieve much better with the teleconnections and drivers that are in play. Maybe the models will start to pick up on something more substantial later the month. Many of the best historical cold spells had one or two lesser attempts preceding them.
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If it does turn out to be a 7 day cold spell, that would be very disappointing with all the positive signs that were / are present. Personally, I think that T96 is the limit of any credibility at the moment. There is far too much uncertainty beyond that, to the point where the OP runs are effectively useless.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Djdazzle replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't see everything being watered down? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Djdazzle replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ECM hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory either. Blind following the blind! ECM isn’t the amazing model that some seem to think. It’s had its fair share of disasters.