Djdazzle

I wouldn’t worry yet Chris. The same was being said this time last month, and 90F was broken. Nothing to rule out the same thing happening this month - it seems likely even in poorer months.

It was never going to be likely. But no reason to suggest that we won’t get some hot weather between now and the end of the month, even if it’s a 2 day plume. You’d never bet against 90F being exceeded.

Well, eventually our luck will change, and those day 8-10 charts will verify. I'm not writing off summer, but we were bound to get a poor one at some point. Definitely the worst (so far) since 2012 by some margin, although nowhere near as bad as that one.

I have to agree - that is quite a poor chart if you want sunshine and warmth. Benign, quite cool and very boring!

Just shows how bad our luck it - the chance of that happening must be miniscule.

Don't like the look of UKMO - that has the hallmarks of the high moving out into the Atlantic in subsequent frames. 144 chart looks cloudy.

Wasn’t talking about the ECM op as such - just responding to @Steve Murr

Would be funny if we got another shot at extreme heat this July.

I don’t see how the UKMO 144 chart can’t lead to a prolonged warm spell. The jet is to the north and there is a positive tilt to the Azores high ridging in. Not bothered what GFS does with it!

Jet looks to be trending further north, which can only be a good thing.

Finely balanced. Still a fair chance that for the south at least, next weekend could be hot.

Hopefully this will be an outlier. The synoptics look great, yet this run seems determined to find a way for us not to benefit fully. However, it is well into FI by that point, so not really worth fretting.

No dramas so far - phew!

Great output this evening. And I’m looking at brIght skies outside as we speak rather than the miserable grey of recent days.

It seems that every time we look like settling down, something happens to stop it. On the face of it, the background signals haven't been awful this summer. But there is something working against us big time.