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  1. Which totally seems to go against what John Hammond has tweeted!
  2. -2 uppers with a continental feed could be good enough for snow. But it’s pointless discussing it on a chart at 9-10 days away.
  3. Good trend from ECM. Hoping to see GFS 18z follow.
  4. Oh look, ECM shows very cold uppers heading for Greece! Typical!
  5. If an Easterly is showing at less than T+96 I’ll be interested! But you can’t call this anywhere’s near to 50:50. There are far more ways to end up without the Easterly than with!
  6. Well for a start none of the UKMO output is anywhere near the reliable time frame. Remember that we have had cross model agreement on easterly outbreaks at +72 only for it to go wrong. And with GFS saying no, that adds to the uncertainty. Like it or not, the Easterly is still very much a long shot at this stage. If there is a good ECM tonight, then the odds improve slightly.
  7. I don’t get all the enthusiasm for an Easterly when there is so little evidence to support it? The UKMO 144 chart would surely go on to show the block sinking SE, with lots of pressure from the northern arm of the jet. No support from GFS either. Of course, things can trend better, but I still believe that the chance of an Easterly is no more than 10%. I’m more than happy for someone to convince me otherwise.
  8. Some nice charts from UKMO / ECM, but chances of an Easterly no more than 10% at the moment. That could change of course.
  9. If only that were true! It’s happened so many times before, yet people fall for it time and time again - even experienced posters who should know better!
  10. Duff duff . . . The only duff thing here is these bloody models!
  11. The deafening silence says it all! I know it’s one run, but this is a step away from the Euros.
  12. Someone says 100% swing. Someone else says slight improvement. No wonder folk find this place confusing!
  13. But surely it’s the longevity that contributes to the classic status? I still say Feb 91 was the last real classic, not that I would say no to a Feb 2009 repeat!
  14. Why do you say that? It hasn’t happened yet. Nor is it likely to at T240!
  15. It’s not anything like a classic Easterly, but still looks very good. It’s been 27 years since the last one, that’s how rare the real classics are. But who knows how it might evolve?