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    Sible Hedingham, Essex

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  1. This is the issue. All this talk of easterlies was always well into FI. I don’t know why som people are surprised or disappointed. If it all went wrong at T72 then I could understand. I do think that the signs are promising further down the line though.
  2. The difference in the day 10 charts from the 00z to the 12z ECM illustrates the point why any chart at that range is not to be taken seriously! The block formation is now creeping into the reliable range. Let’s see what happens once it has formed.
  3. Don’t always buy the belief that strong blocks take a lot of shifting. Sometimes that’s true, but we have also seen them blown away in short order.
  4. We get the same discussions every year re snow potential. It’s pointless trying to pin down snow events more than 48 hours away. The main thing is that it looks increasingly cold. How cold and how long it lasts are still far from being resolved.
  5. Never comfortable when GFS disagrees. Yes it does go off on one sometimes, but sometimes it’s correct!
  6. Good to see some potential for cold, but still nothing close to the reliable range. Possibly a UK high with an inversion would at least bring some seasonal conditions.
  7. You know things are looking grim for cold when day 10 charts are being talked about! Things can flip but it’s only slight glimmers at the moment.
  8. Meanwhile virtually the the whole of mainland Europe is sunny. Talk about bad luck.
  9. I think August should get two more chances to be a good summer month. If it was on a team it would have been dropped long ago. Let’s have May June and July as summer months and relegate August to Autumn where it belongs. Since 1995 there has been one decent August. That is a shocking performance. Even with favourable background signals and teleconnections, this August has still found a way to turn mediocre. OK, there have been far more horrific Augusts in the past, but a flat westerly pattern was very much the outside option. And here we are. Hopefully the experts learn from how it has managed to defy the signals.
  10. It’s a valuable lesson to show that even charts which look good synoptically can bring quite poor surface conditions. This weekend is a case in point where you’ve got the 1020 mb isobar and with pretty much no chance of recording any sunshine.
  11. Yep and zero chance of any sun today or tomorrow.
  12. Don't disagree with that. Just don't like depressing wet days and warm cloudy days. In the past week, only Saturday has been decent.
  13. But it's summer! Makes no sense!