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Everything posted by Fisherman

  1. Didn't that volcano in Iceland (with the funny name) erupt in 2009, which consequentely grounded a lot of flights because of the air bourne ash? Further to that, sunspots were low too, so I wonder if there's a link with an inactive Sun > active volcanoes > northern blocking and cold winters for north west europe? Could it be volcano eruptions and their repercussions cause chaos with the models, such as we've seen recently?
  2. Maybe some hope in Ian's recent comments re MOGREPS - If I remember correctly MORGREPS was a big factor in the METO not backing the failed Easterly forecast last week, for this week? Also, regarding the high level of 'shannon entropy' could this also be a positive thing? I've heard it time and time again that the models struggle with reverse zonality/NE blocks, but are very good with zonal/Atlantic driven weather, so the fact they cannot forecast with high confidence what they are 'good at' suggests to me that Atlantic driven weather is less likely?
  3. For a total novice like me, this is such a great post - explained clearly with not too much techno-jargon, the balance of optimism and realism I like a lot too. Much to my wife's annoyance I have spent far too much time on here the last couple of months, even though not a lot has been going on from a cold/snowy perspective. However things seem to be slowly falling into place - during the remainder of December perhaps we're going to see the start of something 'juicy'! I really hope so...
  4. Maybe GFS coming up with a major Scandi block is going to become a bit of a trend.... which it will later drop, as the ECM starts to sniff around it?
  5. Anyone downbeat about what December will bring only needs to cast their mind back to the end of October and the talk of a mild November. Things can change, there's hope...
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