Fisherman

Didn't that volcano in Iceland (with the funny name) erupt in 2009, which consequentely grounded a lot of flights because of the air bourne ash? Further to that, sunspots were low too, so I wonder if there's a link with an inactive Sun > active volcanoes > northern blocking and cold winters for north west europe? Could it be volcano eruptions and their repercussions cause chaos with the models, such as we've seen recently?

Once again, something being sniffed out for next weekend....

Maybe some hope in Ian's recent comments re MOGREPS - If I remember correctly MORGREPS was a big factor in the METO not backing the failed Easterly forecast last week, for this week? Also, regarding the high level of 'shannon entropy' could this also be a positive thing? I've heard it time and time again that the models struggle with reverse zonality/NE blocks, but are very good with zonal/Atlantic driven weather, so the fact they cannot forecast with high confidence what they are 'good at' suggests to me that Atlantic driven weather is less likely?

For a total novice like me, this is such a great post - explained clearly with not too much techno-jargon, the balance of optimism and realism I like a lot too. Much to my wife's annoyance I have spent far too much time on here the last couple of months, even though not a lot has been going on from a cold/snowy perspective. However things seem to be slowly falling into place - during the remainder of December perhaps we're going to see the start of something 'juicy'! I really hope so...

Maybe GFS coming up with a major Scandi block is going to become a bit of a trend.... which it will later drop, as the ECM starts to sniff around it?

Anyone downbeat about what December will bring only needs to cast their mind back to the end of October and the talk of a mild November. Things can change, there's hope...

So… Once again the ECM is showing some real eye candy in FI and quite rightly there are a lot of people trying to not get too excited after the 'watering down' of the other great charts shown earlier this year. Now, although there's no doubt it would be an unforgetable end to Winter if anything like these charts were to verify, lets be realistic - if the almost expected watering down does happen and we end up with something similar to the last two 'cold snaps' of this year, that's not all bad is it? Especially when you consider only a few days ago Winter was apparantly over. I think it's true, after the Winter 09/10 people's expectations are a lot higher. And as many have said if someone you were offered you what we've had this winter during the 2000s you would have bitten their hand off!! Let's be grateful for what we've had and of course keep our fingers crossed for Winter giving us a good kick in the balls before it says farewell!!!

Since finding this forum, specifically this particular thread not a day goes by without me spending considerable time reading it. Great content, great people - keep it up! I have to say I find it mildly amusing how until this morning a lot of people were critisising the GFS, saying how it should be ignored etc. But now it is showing potential for a possible sting in Winter's tail people's attitude towards it have changed massively! Now, my level of understanding is beyond basic but one of the small pieces of information I recall is the theory that the GFS handles developments on the US eastern seaboard better then the euros - if true, perhaps this increases that glimmer of light that started shining at 06z and maybe just maybe we could well see decent heights over GL before Winter is done with us? Apologies if I'm talking out my backside, as said I am a complete newbie to all this weather lark!

Good Morning! First post for me, since our winters 'turned cold' or at least cooler a few years ago my interest in the weather has really taken off. Upon hearing all about this SSW event I found this site, more precisely this thread. Amazingly interesting watching things unfold, the twists and turns in the models and learning bucket loads along the way. I have to say though my wife isn't too pleased with my addiction to this forum! Anyway back to the models - my knowledge is extremly limited however with the ECM appearing to be going cold (warm) on us coldies and the GFS starting to improve prospects, it almost looks to me that when looking forward at 96+ (to my untrained eyes) that the ECM is lagging behind the GFS? What I mean is with all the GFS/ECM each taking turns to a coldies's favourite' could it be that the GFS is ever so slightly ahead of the ECM with it's thinking and by the time the ECM has caught up, it has moved onto another outcome? Seems to be the general pattern and goes a little way to explaining the sometimes huges disagreement between the two models? Apologies if I'm talking complete crap! Great forum - even better now admin has clamped down on all the 'chit chat'