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Su Campu

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  1. Gusting to 69 knots at Donegal Airport. Was 68 kts at Mace Head SPECI EIDL 290537Z AUTO 25048G69KT 5000 +DZ FEW012 BKN026 OVC037 10/05 Q0994=
  2. Plenty of thunderstorm potential off our coast this evening. Blue and Red show cloudtops cooling by <10 and >10 °C/hr, respectively.
  3. The weather will do what it likes, regardless of the enormous amounts of emotional fireworks on display. I sometimes think that some people forget that and have a go at those who don't share the (usually overdone) optimism of the majority. I think everyone likes to see a bit of snow, some want more than others, but a little bit of maturity is lacking at times. I think things will wobble back and forth before settling down in the next 24 hours, so no real point in watching every frame of every run as they come out until then. My own feeling is that we will see some major snow on higher ground through much of the country next week, but unless the sea track of the airmass shortens to a stricter northerly, or the advection winds increase, then there may be a lot of low-level modification to the wrong side of marginal for sea-level, especially during the day. But we will see. Goodnight.
  4. The negative thing about a cold spell is the amount of garbage one has to trawl through to find any meaningful posts in the likes of the model thread. You just can't go in there at the moment. For me, there are two key indicators of a) how cold the spell will be, and b) how long it will be. The low that is to form over the eastern US will be a key determining factor in how the Greenland high forms. That is still open to some uncertainty, but we want plenty of heights pumped north, not only for the short term but also to up the chances of a SSW. A second one is the low that forms in the Atlantic later next week. That could give a battle ground snow fest, but it could also put a stop to things by running more north than progged now, feeding warmer air north. If it hangs south and passes east then bingo, but it's one to keep an eye on. A third thing I am watching is the setup for polar lows. I feel confident we will see a couple forming north of Scotland next week, but the aforementioned factors will determine where they go from there. Beats the mild muck of the past month anyway.
  5. We need 522 dam or lower here for a good shot at snow. 528 just doesn't usually cut it unless there is cold already in place. In any case the 850-1000 thickness is more important. I find 1290 m or lower pretty much guarantees us snow.
  6. That deep low for next Thursday seems to be holding back in the Atlantic. Could generate some serious surf though later in the week!
  7. That there would be a new long-range forecasting system at Met Éireann. That is good, but it seemed like it was somehow to give hope to people affected, like "Don't worry, we'll have more notice in the future"
  8. I'm not sure how a long-range forecasting system will help areas that are naturally prone to flood. Ok so we may know about very wet spells a bit more in advance but how is that going to stop the flooding? People already knew days in advance what areas were going to flood and measures were put in place to minimise it. The problem has got nothing to do with forecasting it and everything to do with bad planning, no dredging, lack of investment in flood defences, etc. The best model in the world will never change that. If I were in Met Éireann I think I would be a bit miffed at the Taoiseach's comments. It's almost as if he's blaming them for not forecasting it.
  9. Happy New year all. Clean slate, let's be having the winter now, thanks.
  10. 2300 Belmullet 47 gust 65 kts Mace Head 47 gust 61 kts Mace Head live wind
  11. ASCAT winds this tonight. The backbent occlusion has a sting in the tail for Connacht.
  12. Depressions will initially track parallel to the isobars in the warm sector, changing to parallel to the isobars just ahead of the warm front as the occlusion process takes place. This means a curve to the left (north), away from us. The Rosenbloom Rule states that rapidly-developing lows generally track to the left (north) of the model forecast track. Well this used to be the case, but I'm not sure if the latest updates have tackled this.
  13. Move along now, nothing to see here. Come back in January. I still fail to see where the evidence for optimism sprung from. Maybe people are beginning to subconsciously become brainwashed by the likes of Jimmy Maddman's ramblings, because of course he says doesn't use the models! ;-) ECM is king and has stuck to its guns. If I were a betting man I would go for a Rosenbloom northerly shift in the 27th's storm track. Too far north and too much modification for a proper snow event, apart from the north.
  14. Highest sustained 10-minute wind was reported at Sherkin Island some time between 0000-0100 on Friday morning. 27 m/s (54 knots/62 mph/97 km/h).
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