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dec10snow

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  1. Got 50mph gusts predicted for most of the day here tomorrow, no warning though which is odd, usually 45-50mph is the highest we get and that tends to be accompanied by a yellow warning from the Met.
  2. In contrast to the extreme events that you guys have had this morning... it’s peeing down here... shame it’s so heavy as it won’t do the ground any good!
  3. Looks like we finally got a bit of rain last night that wasn’t just drizzle that’s hardly enough to dampen the ground! Could do with a bit more today.... if we’re going to have such a dull cloudy day at least give us a bit of rain!
  4. Yeah I’m surprised that there’s nothing on the radar given some of the cloudscapes about!
  5. Anyone know why Estofex don’t seem to have been issuing forecasts last couple days?
  6. Ooooh... From Convective weather: Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 26 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 27 May 2018 ISSUED 22:40 UTC Fri 25 May 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan Plume events are often fraught with uncertainty, primarily due to poor NWP modelling of deep convection generated by mid-level instability. In these types of situations, including today, it is best to take a broad-brush approach and try to highlight trends, rather than specifics - basically, expect the unexpected! The latest model guidance is much further north and a lot quicker with developments than data had been suggesting just 12 hours ago. It is likely some areas within the SLGT could remain lightning free, and the forecast may need to be altered if confidence improves - it rarely goes to plan... There are reasonable signs for an area of elevated convection to be drifting across S / SE England at the beginning of this forecast period, continuing to move NW-wards through Saturday morning. Questionable as to how much lightning there will be with this activity given weakening instability, though forecast profiles do suggest some reasonable shear to help with some organisation. Either way, whatever activity there is will likely weaken with time as it continues to migrate across the Midlands and into Wales. A secondary pulse of elevated convection may develop and move NW-wards across SW England late morning into the afternoon, which would have a better chance of producing lightning - but this is a weaker signal amongst model guidance. This then leaves a window of opportunity during the afternoon for surface-based thunderstorms to occur. However, the atmosphere will be largely capped by a warm nose at 850-900mb, and so despite increasing instability it is possible very little will actually develop. Greatest potential perhaps across Dorset, Somerset and Gloucestershire, but this very much dependent on enough surface heating to break the cap, which is uncertain due to the potential for extensive mid/upper level cloud associated with earlier elevated convection. Should an isolated thunderstorm develop, it may be severe, capable of producing hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and localised surface water flooding. The potential for thunderstorms then increases during Saturday evening and night, with numerous elevated thunderstorms likely to develop over the English Channel containing frequent lightning and perhaps some hail. The vast majority of model guidance would suggest thunderstorms will move to the NW, putting SW England and the West Country at greatest risk, broadly Isle of Wight westwards. However, ECMWF has been very consistent over several runs (now joined by 12z EURO4) to produce a much more bifurcated flow, which would then take a very active cluster of thunderstorms NE-wards over Hampshire, Sussex and towards the London area by the early hours of Sunday. Given the large spread of possible areas affected, it is difficult to pin down a MDT area with any significant confidence - though worth stressing the ECMWF (and EURO4) tends to have a good handle of elevated convection, and its consistent signal over multiple runs is somewhat reassuring. As a result, have followed these trends for the MDT - though if other models are correct, this may need shifting westwards to cover more of Devon and Cornwall.
  7. Yes just been thinking that myself wondering where tf these showers were going to be coming from! Overcast/dull/grey/boring here for what seems like day 200
  8. The Met now have a yellow warning out for heavy showers for some parts of the region later today, lovely though saying that I would like the extreme of 40mm in a couple hours as they state is possible!
  9. What sort of rainfall totals are we looking at for tomorrow then, Met O going for 8+ hours of heavy rain tomorrow (keeps chopping and changing), Wunderground is saying 24mm which is more than enough on sodden ground!!
  10. Haven’t been keeping up with the thread, but just come in to say the ground temperature is clearly dropping to around freezing now as all surfaces are freezing over where there’s been snow melt, should mean any snow later will easily but does mean there will be a layer of ice underneath!!
  11. Mad to think that whilst we’re sitting around 12C with sunny spells, in 24 hours time the temperature will be at 1C and won’t get above it the whole day! Good old British weather eh?
  12. Hmmm M4 northwards, now where have we heard that before?
  13. I think the Met nailed their warning to be honest, we’ve been under the rain since about 12 I think and we’re just on the edge of it for a good few hours, places to the west of me have been sat under the heavy rain all day so they must be saturated!
  14. Looking at stations around here it looks like we’re getting towards about half of that at around 20mm now, very wet out there
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