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Everything posted by dbaloo
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Got sent the below email in work today. I have cut out all the email addresses but it is from an employee of the met office. Unfortunately I won't say where I work for confidential reasons which I hope you all understand: Update on the Weather Good Morning There was plenty of rain around last night with totals of in excess of 50-60mm across the Cambrian Mountains, the Brecon Beacons, south Wales Valleys - and we saw 90-100mm recorded in some raingauges up near the top of the Rhondda in the 24hrs to 09am this morning. For the rest of today we will see more rain waxing and waning across Wales, - generally it won’t be raining as hard as last night - although rainfall intensities may pick up for a short period of time late morning/early afternoon, before this present weather system clears away. This run of unsettled, wet and windy weather will continue though - this evening and overnight we will see some more strong, gusty winds developing - especially across the north of Wales - where wind speeds could touch as high as 65-70mph or so across some of the more exposed coastal routes and communities. These sorts of wind speeds not unusual for this time of year but may be enough to bring down some more trees/branches just about anywhere in Wales - although the greater chances of seeing impacts will be across some of the more exposed parts of Anglesey and Gwynedd where winds likley to be strongest and we have just issued a Yellow warning for strong winds for this area this evening and tonight. As well as some strong winds tonight - we will also see some more rain in many areas - rainfall amounts not especially large or notable, and will tend to be falling across North Wales and to a lesser extend parts of Mid Wales. Friday - Will see some lingering rain across north and mid Wales through the morning, although drier, brighter conditions across South Wales will spread more widely across Wales by the afternoon. Friday night looks like it will bring another very wet, windy and unpleasant spell of weather to the whole of Wales though. Rainfall totals looking a bit less than what we saw last night, with the highest amounts likely to be across parts of north Wales. Nevertheless it will be wet everywhere and so we will have a continuing risk of further flooding especially where things are still exceptionally wet after the weather over the last week. If you are concerned about flood risk along the rivers then best to have a chat with NRW who are the experts in this area. The weekend - will be showery - with more spells of strong blustery wind too. The rainfall totals down a few notches compared with what we’ve just seen though - but nonetheless enough to keep everything very wet on the ground. It will be getting a bit colder across the weekend though - and some of the showers that fall later in the weekend may bring a little sleet or snow to the mountains, and perhaps some of our highest communities to. Next week we have a reasonably good signal now for a spell of colder weather during the first part of the week - not especially cold or snowy - but enough to mean a few night-time/early morning frosts, and perhaps a few sleet/snow showers around as well too. One advantage of colder weather at this point is that we should see a bit less rain. However there is also a reasonable prospect of us returning to somewhat milder and potentially wetter conditions again by this time next week. So in Summary - some very wet conditions out there today - with rain still ongoing for a few hours yet across some of the more sensitive areas. Met Office Yellow warning for rain remains in place until 5pm today and we have also just issued a 2nd Yellow warning for Strong Winds for parts of north Wales valid from 3pm today until 03am tomorrow morning - details of these warnings are here (correct link this time) We will see further rain on Friday night and across the weekend - and it’s entirely possible we will issue more warnings for this period as we see more data and continue to consult with our colleagues at NRW. Next week looks colder for a while - with a taste of some wintry weather for some of us - but let's not get too carried away by the clickbait stories in some parts of the press. Drop me a line if you want to discuss further
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It's horrendous in there....there's nurses and ambulance drivers on strike, patients not getting the care and treatment they need,people facing homelessness, children not being able to stay warm as their parents can't afford to feed or keep the heating on and there's grown adults stamping thier feet over a computer model. The majority of us would like a white Christmas for nostalgic reasons but it's beyond in there at times
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
dbaloo replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
G- Guess L- Lucky O- Or S- Sometimes E- Eerily A- Accurate