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jesusfernandez

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Posts posted by jesusfernandez

    Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I always look at the charts and see how the rain that enters through the NW over wigan and liverpool go as far as runcorn... maybe up to crewe and then stops and when the rain comes from any other direction is like there is a blocking just on this area of merseyside

     

    then when charts (GFS 0.5° HR) show snow around this area, it never gets to penetrate to this channel, looks like if there is some sor of blockeage on top of me! LOL

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/102h.htm

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/78h.htm

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/120h.htm

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/27h.htm

     

    I know it might be off topic... does anyone here have ever seen this or are there any explenation for this?? Im starting to think that clouds, rain and snow want to avoid me!

     

    (NO SCIENTIFIC REFERENCES what so ever IMO) I've been looking charts for quite a long time but never fully understood whats behind... just the colors and legend 

     

    thanks!!!!

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion; into 2015

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi all!

     

    Nice models after the 5th of jan for cold but I am very new with this charts so I would like to ask...

     

    what model predicted or got closer (long range or mid range) the cold event that we had on boxing day??? I would like to see if it can do the same over the next 2nd half of january.

    which would you guys say is the best models to watch out? I always look GFS and EcM together with UKMO but Id like to know your opinion for these cold events, models tend to exagerate or under-rate certain patterns and I dont think there is just one that does the good work but would be good to know which is good for what.. (not sure if this is off toping... if it is, sorry! :) )

     

     

    I know that its difficultbecause they are in FI but a week before this recent cold event we were 14 degrees in warrington... anything can happen, no?

     

    thanks to all!!! I love the thread!

    • Like 2

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Exactly, a record breaking cold spell could be around the corner for all we know. But people seem to think they can write months off. The famous Winters didn't get going until after Christmas. Also It's not as simple as saying 'the pv is strong so we can't get cold', what an easy job it would be for forecasters if they thought 'lots of purple on this chart, Winter's going to be mild!'

     

     

    yeah this is why weather forecaster is a degree and career of many years XD 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just in time for Christmas? We'll take it! Posted Image

     

    The favourable aspect of such charts isn't so much the exact position, but rather that a large body of high pressure which could be instrumental to delivering cold conditions is hinted at being nearby, let's wait until nearer the time to find out the exact trajectory of any low pressure systems when and most importantly if pressure does indeed build near to Scandinavia / western Russia.

     

    It might be more than just a Highland fling (ho-ho) 

     

     

    Guys I dont know where are you seen all of that stuff... when I look at the GFS and the ECM I always can see amazing stuff after +96hr and then deeply in FI and it never happens.... 

    we seem to be chasing a ghost that will never come :(

     

    How reliable are the models passed +72hrs?? it doesnt seen to be working very well (for last week, all models were giving snow in the liverpool - Manchester area and we had nothing at all...)

    Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Nice explanation Tamara, so basically... after next weekend get the barbecue out and the sun-cream  :):):)

     

    Copied from previous thread as it closed when I postedPosted Image

     

    I think it is true that the pattern, at least for the present time and first part of winter, does favour short cold snaps and in essence that is what CH is saying. As we know, there have been several instances of tropospheric and lower stratospheric interactivity through this year - and this has continued this autumn (albeit weakly). However it is all about equating how much forcing is required from this trop/lower strat activity to disrupt the net energy of the upper vortex and the signals are that it is going to take a lot more than we have seen in previous times to disrupt the vortex.

     

    Without going into acronym land, there are reasons as detailed previously on here and ongoing in the technical threads why this winter looks less favourable for lower atmosphere activity to be successful on the upper vortex than we have seen in recent winters

     

    The recent attempted downstream amplification the other week as triggered by wave activity from the continued presence of the Alaskan ridge was insufficient to disturb the vortex and amplify the atlantic ridge as much as suggested at one stage by the models - and the jury is still out as we know on the upcoming northerly as to how much amplification may be present and how the jet energy is handled upstream.

     

    The jet stream is favourable in terms of a split flow being present to allow the possibility for the northerly - and we have the -EPO (Aleutian ridge) to thank for that - but the complicated upstream pattern is making the model calculations on degree of eastward moving energy and amplification of the atlantic ridge tricky and hence the erratic disagreements amongst the models - but, all that said, what we do know is that without background support for upper blocking, whether we get a more amplified and colder arctic incursion or not - the vortex is too strong, and wave activitity likely too insufficient, to make next weekends cold shot nothing more than a transitory affair.

     

    There are continuing consistent signals in the modelling, post northerly, for the vortex to return towards Canada through Greenland and it is quite conceivable that the upcoming polar incursion presents the 'best' opportunity at wintriness before the pattern flattens out somewhat and the ridging de-amplifies and potential for northerlies reduces - at least for a while.

     

    Both the GFS and ECM do agree on this even if they disagree on the northerly strength and duration itself.

    Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi all,

     

    Just wanted to update you on the latest track and intensity of the BIG STORM during sunday night and monday, it's going to be extremely serious folks.... gusts of 80mph plus, power lines will come down, trees will be uprooted, houses and business premises will be badly damaged and needless to say, I hope everyone stays safe, batten down the hatches tomorrow night. Posted Image

    Does this not sound like too much speculation??

    Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi there guys...

     

    I am reading comments and I am thinking... looks like the armageddon is been predicted!

     

    what is it exactly what you can see that will be so extreme and special?

    I though that anything over +72hr is no enough accurate to make any predictions (FI)

     

    Sorry if you may cover your eyes when reading this XD Im a bit amateur on this :( although I love to learn :):)

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