wiltshire weather

As an appetizer, I'm quite happy to take what the HIRLAM is showing for tonight: Fits in well with the showers showing up on the radar too: Seems to be building off the Essex coast before moving across.

Should give quite a covering for those who catch that shower train!

Seems to be a rash of showers headed our way from London right now:

I'm not entirely sure the models etc. have got this correct yet. Just looking at the latest ICON rolling out now and storm EMMA currently appears to be further east than that model run is showing. For example in the satellite pic below, the front running down the south east coast of Italy is already well inland: whereas the ICON has it not making that location untill 2300: May not make an ounce of difference of course, but any correction eastward I think would be a good thing before it swings up towards us as the core of the heavier precipitation would hit our region instead of heading up to Ireland. Also, I assume the further elongated the low pressure is eastwards, the more cold air it continues to pull in. Either way, the ICON is still showing a decent snow event for the next two days even for me in the NE of our region

Temp got down to -9.2c here last night, dont think we'll be breaking that for a while! Keeping fingers crossed for all you guys along the south coast today.

This is exhausting! GFS upgrades as others have mentioned:

Maybe the answer in what Meto are seeing lies in their updated FAX charts for Thurs/Fri: I'd quite happily take those !

Updated ICON fragments the snow quite a bit. Still snow across the region Thurs but Friday looks like a non-event almost. However, it does keep the cold going and apart from a brief warm-up early Friday morning, brings back colder 850 uppers (below 0 anyway) until Sunday evening (the end of its run).

-9.1c now. Snowy pic from earlier this evening out with the dog during our one and only snowstorm so far:

Hmm, my forecast for tomorrow seems to have gone from sunny all day to cloudy with snow late afternoon/evening. Wonder what has caused that to change? Not that I'm complaining mind!

Hah! Sorry for my earlier gaff! Forgot to put in the all important minus sign! What a plonker... Anyway, now down from the earlier -6.9c to -7.8c here.

Temperature has dropped like a stone here after a snow storm left 2cms of snow cover in 20 mins earlier! Already down to 6.9 deg c

Really looks like this is going to go down to the wire with changes right up to the event itself and even as it's happening! I'm sure there will be both upgrades and downgrades along the way, what a fascinating hobby we have

Unfortunately, I think you're probably right! Seems the GEM always overdoes the precipitation...

Note I posted the GFS again first of all, corrected my post now

Really, really hoping the GEM has got this nailed !

GFS 12z snow prediction Thurs-Fri Not as good for me Thursday but better Friday. Seems similar to the ICON I posted earlier.

Updated ICON snow predictions for Thus-Sat:

Not entirely sure if the scale of this is in mm or cm, but here's the accumulated precipitation for Thurs going into Friday from the ARPEGE 6z: Seems to match up with the warning area quite well.

Lovely pics Tamara, hopefully we will all be seeing something like that over here as well

Even my Meto app has now got some snow showing for this afternoon!

Looks like the area over Kent is actually moving East, as well as the one coming down from the Midlands. First image was at 1050, second one at 1200:

HIRLAM short range updated for the 6z - takes us up to Thursday and shows a lot of what @Bring Back1962-63 alluded to in his excellent analysis earlier (please go and read it if you can, it's on page 106 of this thread).

A late start getting online this morning and only just catching up, whilst the heaviest flurry we've had so far is on the go. Thought I'd take a look at the various outputs for snow Thurs/Fri/Sat and its looking pretty good for our region as it stands, although the GEM isn't good from Friday onwards. I'll do the ARPEGE shortly but its still updating its 06z run: ICON 6z: GFS 6z: GEM 0z: