.jpg.66eb1d612a19e333068352f9a1a6b9ea.jpg)
.jpg.689334a3abd90b862654383e9bd4ca03.jpg)
wiltshire weather
-
Posts
299 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by wiltshire weather
-
-
Still nothing this far east but I live in hope!
Met office have updated their long range outlook and pretty much have removed talk of cold until beginning of March, and even that has been toned down from before! Just a small chance for cold returning next weekend still so I'll hold on to that
Thursday 18 Feb - Saturday 27 Feb
This period begins with temperatures much milder than recent, with temperatures returning to around or slightly above average for most, with some mild spells being seen in the south and west. There remains a small chance to return to wider colder conditions for the weekend, but the likelihood is low. The UK looks to be split broadly northwest to southeast in terms of the general weather types with the west and northwest more likely to see wet conditions with strong winds at times, and the east and south east more likely to remain drier, fine, and settled. Under these settled conditions we may see temperatures falling back to average or below, and with increased incidence of overnight frost and fog. Any snowfall most likely becoming restricted to the Scottish mountains.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sat 13 Feb 2021
Saturday 27 Feb - Saturday 13 Mar
Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with likely drier and more settled conditions prevailing. Temperatures likely to return back to around, if not below, average with a greater chance of cold spells during this time, bringing an increased threat of widespread frost and a very uncertain chance of snow. Towards mid-March there are signs of returning to a more unsettled period, with milder interludes more likely once more.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sat 13 Feb 2021
-
2
-
-
I hope everyone gets to see some snow falling today so good luck all.
The front already seems to have made it further east than predicted at this time so maybe that's a sign it's going to make it over to us in the east.
Keeping fingers crossed
-
4
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
What I have been trying out (just to aid my understanding) is to take NOAA 500MB Height Chart for a period such as this one for the 17-21 Feb issued yesterday:
then I look through the 500MB hPA Wind charts on WZ for instance to find one in that period that seems to match it as near as poss such as this one for the 19th Feb:
Then I look to see what the 500MB Geop Height chart looks like for the same timeframe:
Gives a good idea of what it could look like at the surface.
All very subjective of course as there are several patterns that could fit the NOAA chart through that period with much different surface conditions!
Now checking the NOAA 8-14 day chart:
A fairly similar 500hPA Wind chart for the 23rd:
And 500hPa Height chart for the 23rd:
If (and it's a big IF) those are correct then you could surmise that the GFS is developing the right pattern currently.
I have no idea if this is a valid way to interpret the various charts but will be fun to keep track of it to see how successful it is
-
8
-
2
-
2 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
If I had a pound for every time I've seen wxcharts over do things I'd be a rich man! Let's see if it gets this one right..
I'm not sure if its WXCharts or the ECM model output that's at fault tbh !
-
As I mentioned above, ECM is also joining the 'party'
Animation for Saturday, looks like Ireland and Wales are the places to be!!
-
1
-
-
Just to add some other short range models for Sat afternoon:
Hirlam (doesnt show precip type):
Harmonie:
Also Navgem and JMA have similar themes.
-
2
-
-
2 minutes ago, kumquat said:
Arpege 0Z overnight still has a little hope for Saturday over frames from 10:00 until 19:00 for the region:
Looks like GEM/ECM/ICON also have at least some snow getting across our region on Saturday so I would say there is growing support for this, although amounts will probably not come to much and I doubt any of it will reach the eastern areas unfortunately.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, AWD said:
The mighty ICON returns. The 18z ICON reverses the recent trend of a dying front on Saturday, and instead brings the band far enough north & east for most of the region to see some modest snow falling, before fragmenting the PPN in the afternoon......
Will be interesting to see what the models are predicting in the morning, perhaps more of them will follow the Icon, you never know!
This one could come down to radar watching on the day as anything is possible in this setup..
-
12 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:
Latest METO warnings really do paint a bleak picture for areas away from Devon/Cornwall with regards to snow before mild returns.
I've often cursed my luck over the last 50 or so years in these situations. Either too far East or too far West depending which way the show is coming from
-
3
-
-
I'm ever the eternal optimist when it comes to snow chances, but even I am now thinking that Saturday may well be our last shot at anything more than a dusting with the GFS//, Icon and Arpege all having some snow a fair way across our region, although it may not actually reach me in the far north east!
Latest runs for 1300 Saturday:
GFS//
Arpege:
Icon:
GEM gives Devon and Cornwall a decent snow event on Saturday but it doesn't make it across the whole region:
Worth a mention that the GEM actually gives us all a semi-decent snow to rain event on Sunday:
After that, a return to milder temperatures and spells of rain for a few days and then hopefully high pressure building back in from the east towards the end of the week settling it down. Still a lot of uncertainty in that and also if it happens, will it set up far enough north to start drawing in colder air again. Meto update suggests that it will.
The GEM(very mild) and ECM(colder) are good examples of the two ends of the scale when it comes to how that could work out.
So, onto the next cold chase on the models
-
4
-
-
Great to see some more have woken up to a covering this morning
There's nothing on the radar but after a sunny start and low of -5.9c overnight it's clouded over and I have a few flakes drifting down.
So that makes falling snow 4 days in a row I think for me which I'm happy with even though we haven't had much more than a thick dusting on the ground.
-
1
-
-
No big snow event on the ECM, this is the best it has to offer which comes in on Saturday.
The writing is def on the wall for an end to the cold spell, but whether it goes out with a bang or a whimper is still not completely set in stone yet.
I'm still not convinced of the model output for next week either so am sitting firmly on the fence (sorry, but is the only emoji I could find for 'fence'!)
-
4
-
-
5 minutes ago, chris55 said:
Haven't ventured into the Mod thread yet this eve or checked any runs except the GFS Para.....and it looks a peach up 200h, repeated fronts turning to snow then this at 180.....Now ill go and check the GFS and UKMO to be brought back down to earth lol...
That's an insane GFS // run! Just goes to show what could happen if the Scandi high never loses it's grip.
Entirely within the realms of possibility but so far of course out on its own!
I think this is the one to pray to the weather gods for to come true
-
2
-
-
10 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:
Edit: AWD beat me to it. Still looking good from the ICONWill be absolutely fantastic to get that but just one day to enjoy it as by Sunday we have this:
-
Some showers beginning to pep up a bit to the NW of Southampton and currently heading in that direction:
According to this mornings Arpege this sinks south this afternoon and joins the disturbance due to swing up into Devon/Cornwall overnight which has resulted in the yellow weather warning. It's also showing some mixed snow/sleet from the front coming in to the SW in the afternoon in the same areas:
-
2
-
-
Full Meto update (interestingly still timestamped 0400 this morning!):
Monday 15 Feb - Wednesday 24 Feb
Rather cloudy with rain at times into Monday with any snow likely being restricted to the high grounds of Scotland, though there is signal for some widespread snow to low levels plausible. Temperatures remain split, with the northeast seeing around average while feeling milder in the south and west. However, the boundary between these two layers moves slightly north - giving some milder and wetter conditions into central and western areas. Through the rest of next week, conditions look likely to turn milder and wetter than seen recently. The heaviest and most frequent spells of rain and showers are likely in the west, with conditions drier and brighter at times in the east. By next weekend colder and drier conditions may gradually become established once again.
Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021
Wednesday 24 Feb - Wednesday 10 Mar
Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to expand westwards leading to an increased chance of snow showers redeveloping in the east, for conditions in the north to become generally quite settled and for unsettled weather in the south, with disruptive snow possible. A similar picture continues into March, though milder conditions in the west look more likely to spread northwards.
Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021
-
1
-
-
Certainly looks as though many respected forecasters are leaning towards milder temperatures next week. If it happens I just hope it's dry and we don't get a return to constant cloud and rain...ugh...
I'm still not convinced..... Yet....
-
2
-
-
Morning all. Glad to see we had a bit more of a dusting last night across some parts of the region.
Today it looks less likely but I'm still keeping an eye on a convergence line sinking south from the Wash during the day along which some snow may pop up, mainly in eastern areas.
That same convergence line then becomes the disturbance which moves back north tomorrow giving some in the SW regions a possible spell of snow.
Quick look at the models and my view has not changed really since last night. Possible snow events Fri-Sun on both the Icon (still) and the GFS, and I'm still not completely convinced the mild air will push over anything but the more western parts of our region. Meto outlook continues to be along the same lines so they must be seeing something we don't have access to.
The fax charts are a good guide to their insight and the new ones for Fri and Sat are quite intriguing with a front draped somewhere across us every day (although with the wind direction from the drier SE/SSE in front of them there may not be too much moisture on them it has to be said):
Fri 00hrs:
Fri 12hrs:
Sat 00hrs:
Sat 12 hrs:
The fronts are just inching their way across so will be interesting to see the updated ones for Sunday when they come out.
-
4
-
2
-
-
12 minutes ago, Don said:
Snow pepped up here now and has cheered me up slightly!
There's a definite streamer setting up just north of the A303 at the moment.
I think it may sink southwards through the early hours but may well give anyone under it a decent dusting, especially if it is slow moving.
-
I think the drama for Friday-Sunday is far from decided yet.
The Icon continues to show a very snowy breakdown and the GFS 18z is not dissimilar with frontal snow across various parts of our region Fri, Sat and Sun! Strong SE winds throughout as well so some drifting if it happens like that.
I'm still not convinced the Atlantic will break through completely just yet either. It def feels as though things are on a knife edge and could quite easily flip back to a colder scenario if things fall into place.
-
1
-
-
26 minutes ago, AWD said:
So far, for the weekend, we have;
12z ICON - heavy snow for many away from the far south west.
12z GFS & 12z Arpege - some light snow for the far South West on Saturday, dry for areas further north and east until later on Sunday. Remaining cold in these areas. Delayed breakdown.
12z Nwx Model - Snow to rain event on Saturday, longer (snowfall) the further northeast in the region you are.
Some sort of improvement so far then, compared to the 0z output. More importantly, a hell of a lot of uncertainty.
It certainly doesn't look 'nailed on' for any outcome at the moment, and with the Meto update still maintaining the mostly cold outlook even after the dreadful stuff the 0z models churned out, there has to be hope that things may swing back to cold once again on the models! Certainly many in the mod thread this morning were expecting the Meto to drastically change their outlook, so the fact they haven't is very interesting.
It also looks like they're not following their own model output (the one we can see anyway).
It would certainly be great for all of us down here if the Icon has managed to put one over one the 'big guns' for this weekend
-
2
-
-
31 minutes ago, AWD said:
Something resembling a heavier, streamer flurry forming to our east.
IF, massive IF, it keeps its intensity, might provide a sugar dusting for Bath/Swindon/Bristol corridor.
That has produced quite a heavy period of dry snow here which rapidly covered the drive. Shows what could happen if you get stuck under one for a longer period of time. Unfortunately it's back to just the lighter stuff now....
-
3
-
1
-
-
That's quite an impressive streamer setting up Wsw from London. Wonder which way it will drift if the wind turns more easterly?
-
2
-
-
Definitely more snowy action popping up around our region than yesterday
-
3
-
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted · Edited by wiltshire weather
Updated after GFS 12z
I'm still hoping to at least get a few flakes this afternoon so I can say we've had 4 consecutive weekends with falling snow!
Either way I would say that this winter has felt a bit more 'wintry like' than recent ones, so I'm ok with that.
I've enjoyed this cold spell even without a decent snow event. If I can't have cold and snow in winter then cold, dry and frosty is the next best thing for me!
I'm pretty sure the models are all going to be showing the same sort of evolution over the next few days with high pressure centred somewhere to the south east of us with temperatures above average, during the day at least.
However, looking at the current NOAAA 500MB anomaly charts for the 6-14 day period, I think there is a possibility the high pressure will be centred further north, maybe even right over us. With the latest Meto update it will be interesting to see if the NOAA charts change to reflect this over the next few days or if they will continue to hold firm, in which case I would expect the operational models to start changing their outlook early next week.
Edit: How the GFS12z evolves after next weekend up until the Thurs at least is what I was expecting to see based on the NOAA charts.