rory o gorman

The all elusive 528 DAM line should be in over the north by about 00z. Precip should be of mostly of snow from there onward.

Just a quick undate , Looking over the latest data .There appears to be two main areas of interest in relation to organised snowfall. Firstly the running wave along southern counties should give some back edge snow as it clears given the depth of cold behind.The second feature is an embedded mid-level shortwave that moves across the country from north to south from above 4 to 8 pm . This should give good accumulations in many places. The only issue is how east the precip goes, that will be a nowcast as all models differ on placement. There is be also the standard sea effect snow showers

Quite promising in the short term for the white stuff in many parts Thursday morning into the afternoon/evening 850's sub -8 country wide . Thickness <528 , DP's under zero. A number of subtle shortwaves moving down across the country. For a polar maritime airmass its as potent iv'e seen in years.

Some super temperatures in Ireland and a spring like feel to the air with a subtropical airmass next week

Basic thermodynamics , in winter a lack of solar heating and a stagnant air mass cause's a stronger inversion that can intensify to more 10 c or more as seen yesterday over parts of france. As mid level flow increases the BL normally mixes out and the sounding becomes much more adiabatic. Therefor don't expect cold surface temps with the forecast synoptics next week.

The GFS has nailed a number of dynamic system in the U.S over the autumn from about 7-10 days out . Clearly the algorithm has been enhanced recently or data feed has improved with more NAM style input. Pattern does appear locked with a very strong advection of warmth, D.P's approaching 10 c near Iceland and 546 (500-100mb)dam breaking into the Arctic. With such amplification though chances of a easterly are not as far gone as many are making it out to be. Subtle differences in the trough ejecting from the eastern seaboard early next week or energy slipping into Europe and things could ch

Quite happy with the Ecm tonight . Ok its not cold ,but its dry and with the moderate breeze a good chance for those 10 C uppers to mix down. Far better than a cranking jet and endless rain .

been lovely here , a few nice sunny days little rain and temps hitting 22c today .

heros has fallen , rip team twistex

well im looking for convection now , so the ecm pattern is fine for me, plenty of WAA on the gfs also .

GFS keen to shoot up a ridge straight up over us in about a week , possible to build our own heat as polar flow cut off. 11c maxes on saturday in light winds here would be a big improvement indeed . The upward trend continues hopefully .