rory o gorman
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Posts posted by rory o gorman
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5 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:
Tbh with all the warmth we have had in the south east and the heat to come before mid next week I wouldn’t mind a week or so of unsettled weather, garden could do with it
Once the green snot of death kicks in often the whole summer is a write off. OG members on here remember 07-12 with months of April showers and cold temperatures in mid Summer.
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For people wondering about the the Surface temperatures being suppressed its quite a plausible outcome. Soundings show there is a strong EML in place and given the cold SST's there will probably a lot of convective debris and strata-clu riding atop the θ-E advection from France.
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25 minutes ago, Why said:
Absolutely, I have no issues with those pointing out the dire output at the moment, it is pretty awful for the heat-seekers among us. If you really need the rain, and are a hayfever sufferer, there are some positives to take from the next 7-10 days mind you!
Those who then write off close to three months of summer based on 2 weeks output though, well they need to pick up their toys, go to another thread and calm down. It contributes nothing and gets in the way of informative posts from @knocker, @Catacol and @Tamara recently, among others. Keep it up guys
Logically this post makes a lot of sense. But there are two mitigating factors to consider before slating those with pessimism. Firstly we are in the unknown historically regarding climate change and rapid melting of the polar ice caps , which as I type are surely melting rapidly given this temperatures in Greenland/arctic currently. Therefore we cannot pattern match for this correctly.
Secondly we've see this before, northern blocking and a powerful warm air advection into Greenland early in the summer and the famous 'snot' sitting over us for 2 months. Here in Ireland 2007,08,09,10,11 and famously awful 12 each had at least 2 months of this pattern. Therefore going from off these previous summers and despite my love of sun and warmth I'm not hopeful of a change anytime soon. But will continue to chase the carrot as always!
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3 minutes ago, Mark N said:
A mere dusting for you Rory in comparison to Dublin! ?
haha ya 34 cm max ive seen here is 5 cm . ... I'll take it !
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1 minute ago, Mark N said:
If Icon18z comes off you will be happy you lot!
Would be a historic event for sure here.
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Guernsey is in the middle of that 12cm and counting
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Light snow has started here on the south coast.
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1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:
You weren't kidding when you said 'light' :-)
Nothing here yet, though I'm told there have been wisps of snow over in the leafy suburbs of Clontarf!
Ha that was its starting , Its getting a bit heavier now in bursts. Waiting on the cold pool to eject properly tonight
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Good to see the UKMO following a certain private UK model, and yes I know people before you ask
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17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
You would have to say the charts for midweek look considerably better than 2010.
Colder air and more unstable air with stronger winds.
Can't wait for mid week.
Yes certainly more shades of jan 1987 a short intense cold spell that was. Also note the wind direction E or ESE as opposed to ENE for 2010. That makes a huge difference to me on the south coast for a celtic streamer or people living far up the east coast where a NE flow shortens the sea track a lot reducing totals.
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Yes totally, but interesting to see what the depths its showing here in the south.
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Snowfall accumulations for Ireland by next friday-
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Easterly flow tends to form streamers due to the winds crossing the landmass of England which causes convergence of winds doesn't happen in westerlies. As you can see on the map I provided one north of the isle of man and one south , (isle of man causes divergence) and one along the extreme south coast .Snow levels quickly build up with often falling up to 3 cm per hour in the strongest convection.
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here is the ECM snowfall totals in inchs. A few strange posts regarding convection potential What is the issue? . For the eastern coastal counties and along the south coast it is exetmely likely. -35c at 500hpa , -12/-14 850hpa , SST's at 8/9c and strong east flow in sfc of pressure 1024 mb with the 501 DAM touching the east coast 1987 levels right there.
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Roche's point here on the south coast experienced record 12 cm of snow in 1987 from a snow streamer . It the gfs/ukmo comes off I feel that the record may go. Exceptional charts!
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18 minutes ago, Southender said:
Wow, just wow. There are some seriously inaccurate posts flying around at the moment. Please, if you do not understand how to read the models correctly either ask a question or read up on things, there is some excellent learning material on here and across the web. This is a place to learn, but at the same time posting wholly inaccurate info just inflames a situation further.
Anyhooooo, lovely GFS run eh?We do not want a shortwave forming in the north sea . Firstly It prevents the cold air advection lifts heights and secondly will mix out the colder uppers and although it fine for snow on this run ,the seasoned campaigners on here have seen this before. Clean and aggressive this run or the last are not.
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1 minute ago, Nick F said:
Usually there is enough moisture aloft in our maritime climate to support high based convection with warming from below, even if the continental surface flow has dried out inland from the North Sea.
0 /15 c spread will be quite interesting to see the the results of LCL ect .Forecast Soundings will come into reach soon certainly worth a look over.
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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:
I would have thought that more strength in the sun as we approach early March may provide enough shallow heating above the ground to support some convective development inland as well - given how steep the lapse rates will be, something the models may not simulate well - through experience of seeing no ppn shown inland by a model but showers still popping up.
I thought the lack of moisture would negate the laspe rates , surface thermals ?
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Ok time to post in between yet another spell of bipolar posters that hang on each model run like it were gospel. It really is quite amusing at times. Lets look at this from a scientific point of view . 101 of based fluid dynamics the more variables entered into an equation increased and often vast scatter is the outcome. This increases exponentially, if our initial parameters vary even slightly very prevalent in thermodynamic profiling . Fluid dynamic calculus algorithms lie on the forefront of our computing power, and therefore with dynamic changes currently in the upper air profiles the fluctuations vary widely.
Look at the latest 2 suites of ensembles ,anyone based in a scientific field would analysis the semantic sampling results and scrape the data due to total entropy . Resulting in near zero correlation beyond 144 hrs. What does that mean?
Keep calm , the scatter in data clearly indicates anything can happen and as the synoptics needed for cold here required quite a large deviation from the mean but it certainly increases the chances.
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Another winter , same bipolar comments in here . Look the pattern not the individual runs, we have a mobile highly amplified pattern in prospect with a strong probability of something substantial developing. Pulling out some arbitrary chart at 240 hrs+ is not going provide any insight into what is clearly a highly uncertain future. This is creating great difficultly for both mathematical modelling and subsequent algorithms alike.
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1 minute ago, BREIFMAN11 said:
So this warm sector has thrown everything out of the pram. Was it impossible to forecast beforehand? (Not a dig, just wondering if its actually possible to forecast these things)
I don't real bother forecasting anywhere anymore Facebook ect not really worth the hassle. But I saw it this morning pretty easily and was a tad upset :D. I'm sure trained met's would have seen it easily.
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1 minute ago, jello said:
Woohoo. Although lol, that wee dip down by lough neagh is odd?
Lol, yep I think the map is a touch excessive its falling as sleet in many parts currently, and down here in cork we have gone from snow to rain in the space of an hour
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Yep it was viable on the all the models from this morning, very disappointing yet again.
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GFS at 222 hrs. This is the holy grail for the worst of summer charts possible , a new windy 'variant' of the green snot.