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Everything posted by goosey007
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So in summary transient snow Birmingham northward….all rain or sleet south of that and no extensive northern blocking and finally ukmo model is now cannon fodder
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
goosey007 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ali1977 are we ignoring the ukmo and icon output then ? Not being funny just interested to know why gfs is trusted so much at 7 days. ….also feels like the snow line needs to be in northern Spain for it to verify at t0 for the south of the uk !! -
Think this is it … if this misses recent history says that COULD be that for this winter for majority in terms of significant snow …been 2 or 3 really cold weeks over last few years and yielded zero snow in this neck of the woods ….. good luck and congrats to those who get it … Im not bitter honestly
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I don’t think there were adamant …. I believe they were just warning us that if it did it would cause big disruption which i think is prudent…. The models were showing at the time … but hey Ho it’s the weather rather deflating it’s gone south but it is what it is …. We keep on the lookout for the next feature ….LP / Thames streamer … Pembroke dangler where ever you are really
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Hope your right jay ….. the trend hasn’t been our friend today with it tracking further south than modelled yesterday we need to start to see that move back north a bit of the comming runs ….. think brum north can now be ruled out for this LP ….but SW still has a chance of course looks as though secondary Low may give us what we want just less perhaps ….. keep watching
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I must have model paranoia…as on the cusp of a uk cold spell the trend for 5-7 day period seems to be for gfs to Come on board with it and then ecm back away then ecm to back it then gfs to back away then gfs to cone back on Board ….it’s like an episode of the chuckle brothers ….. I fully expect a full guns blazing narnia pub run tonight !!!
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Please tell me you’re not on Cyprus Nick ! Right I am due to Book Tenerife today /tomorrow to go Saturday but don’t want to miss the snow I have a terrible dilemma only a coldy would understand …was hoping this was going to water down as usual but it’s ramping up ……help where I am it could still just be cold rain with snow m4 north….
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
goosey007 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So that says 40cm for my location cannot be correct there would Amber warning out by now surely ……odd -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
goosey007 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Including rain yeah Tim ?! -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
goosey007 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
yes from this mornings ecm run ......10c and showing snow is plain nuts! -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
goosey007 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
30cm for my local nonsense surely ....as I think mentioned before this is total snow fall not settling? so prob get 5cm of wet slush nice to look at all the same -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
goosey007 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
intensity also seems to be increasing ! -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
goosey007 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
goosey007 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
no the warning is just for wales -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
goosey007 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
They sure they got a lot more data at hand to make the call…tough one tho and time is ticking -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
goosey007 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I fancy you would need more than a bucket load to melt that lot -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
goosey007 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No these systems are going into France complete miss ! Need that to hit the buffers …..snow to rain mush fest that