pandit-scholar

Although is in semi FI, it is possible we may get another Spanish plume in August. The CFS anomaly chart has consistently showing it to be dry and warm in August, so we may have not seen the last of the hot weather, even if the record books don’t get threatened again. But there again it’s the CFS so don’t take it as gospel.

I have been to the Cambridge University Botanic gardens many times, since I study for a PhD at Cambridge. The Botanic Gardens is a very big site, and most of the greenhouses, if not all, are sited in one area of the gardens, well away from the weather station.

Metcheck. I gather from elsewhere it could be close to that there. It’s going to be close. Next hour will be crucial.

38.4 C at Hereford. So agonizingly close to the record if it is the peak. https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/live_weather_map.asp#

As a bit of banter is allowed on this thread, I have to say that people are now getting really desperate on here, especially when you see posts using charts from the CFS. (just a joke). But seriously there is still a month and bit left in this winter, and traditionally February is the coldest month of the year. As I may recall (and I maybe wrong) the experts on here like Glacier Point forecasted this is be a backloaded winter. I am still confident we will still see a cold spell in February. We just have be patient and stop getting wound up by day 10 charts, which we all know are unlikely to happen, and change from run to run, but forget this in the anticipation and excitement of viewing the model runs. It used to be the same with me, but I have now got used to it.

I am cautiously optimistic that we may eventually see an Easterly in February. There are plenty of snow chances for many in the coming week, which hopefully do for some. But the severe cold, which will quite possibly threaten the record books in the NE USA, is not helping the UK in the short to medium term, that is if you are looking for a memorable cold spell, especially with full force of the jet steam station over Scotland.

Looks like even the atmosphere weather has had enough of Trump!!

Back on here for the first time since March, after hibernating due to the demands of study and work. What a great summer it has been sun and heat wise, although I was beginning to feel the heat and humidity during the past few days, so the current rain and cooler weather is a welcoming relief. After this “cooler” spell of weather there is universal agreement amongst the UKMO and North American models of a gradual build up of high pressure and dry weather, and also a build up of a Spanish plume. The real question is, will this very hot pool eventually reach the shores of the UK in what is traditionally the hottest month of the year?

Looks very quite on here since the latest cold spell. In the short to medium terms it looks very unsettled for the start of spring, with nothing particular mild temperature wise. In the longer term, there is alot of divergence in the models. The GEM and ECM continues the chilly and unsettled theme. The GFS goes for some northern blocking towards the end of its run, with a cold northerly set up. NASA and ARPEGE go for milder temperatures coming from the south, but still very much unsettled.

Had quite a bit of snow in Colchester in the morning but considerable melt now due to the sun, even though it's 0C here.

Beginning to snow quite heavily in Colchester, and settling down on the ground quite nicely to as well.

I have warned a number of family and friends, including fellow students from overseas, from hot countries, who have never experienced this type of cold before, and also prepared ourselves at home. Going to check up on our 95 year old neighbour today to see whether his heating is alright. Whether they believe it, is a totally different matter. I had put a veiled warning on my FB page last night, without going into too many details, due to fear of being accused of ramping or being like the Daily Express. I am afraid years of ramping and false headlines by the Daily Express, and other comics, has unfortunately created "a boy cried wolf" scenario, where many members of the wider public are going to take this upcoming cold spell with a pinch of salt, until it comes that is. I hope this doesn't have too many adverse consequences.

After the model drama today, the ECM has come up with an excellent run with a deeper cold and lots of snow potential. As many have said before me, the GFS, ECM, UKMO, show just one option in their respective models, and best not to hung up on one particularly run. Although the GFS shows a breakdown much later on, some on here tend to forget that it's way into FI, and the odds of that happening is less than 10%. Once the cold sets in it I think will be very difficult to shift. After all these are predictive models, and it's the weather that dictates itself. I think many of you saw what was on offer today from the main models a week ago, in reliable, you would have said BANK. Being a snow lover I am happy with what the output has to offer from the main models in reliable and semi reliable, and sit back and see what the weather does outside thereafter. Well I am happy, at least inside the head (?), although the rest of the body probably will be cursing the head being a psoriasis sufferer.

I think a lot of people have been spoilt by the eye watering synoptics on the models from the coldies perspective, whilst forgetting we are likely to have an interesting cold spell on the cards, one which hasn't been seen for 5 years. I think a lot of us have been sucked into looking at the later frames even though the rule still holds that models are only reliable when four days away. The BBC forecast is hinting that change is afoot, but being cautious at the same time, saying that cold might be coming, and if does it could last way into March. After all the Meto is privy to more data than we have, more so than relying simply on the latest run of the GFS as some had just done on the model thread,

Although the GFS shows a breakdown at T + 216, it way too far in future to start throwing the toys out of the pram, as some coldies have done. The BBC forecast on TV just now has to started to hint that change is a foot, but wont go into to much detail yet, for obvious reasons. Just that Siberian winds are coming, and the core of the cold may reach the UK, or go south of the UK, as I can remember I think. If it does come, he said may last way into March (they are privy to more data than is available to us). All we can say that some form of cold spell is coming, based on what we are all seeing on the model. I am sure the MetO and other professionals are going to wait and see how deep the cold gets, and the snow potential before coming totally on board, as it understandable from their perspective.

After the hiccups of the APERGE and the GFS operational 12z earlier . The ECM is a perfect run for coldies. Get the snow in, then very cold air afterwards, and then further reloads of snow. A snowfest.

Uppers of -5 is good enough for snow.

Sorry, didn't wait to see the high in the next frame, which becomes the "enemy". Some of the UK could end up being in the block with the continental Europe seeing the "worst" of the cold as a result. But still too early and the finer details will change from run to run I suppose.

The GFS and UKMO looks great again so far. The GEM looks good. There is a concern with the APERGE with that shortwave. Let's hope it's a one off, if you are a coldie, and changes on the next run. Now over to the ECM later.

Another stonking run from the GFS 18z. Only minor differences with the 12z and maybe even a slight upgrade on the previous run, with uppers of -16 making even further inroads into Southern England in just over a week's time.

If that was to happen, that will mean powder snow for southern England. Doesn't take as much precipitation to create dumping of snow from that.

What do you mean? Are you predicting the GFS to upgrade even more?? If so, you back this up with information as to the reasons why you think that.

With the ECM is on board, there is now cross model agreement for a memorable cold spell, certainly the coldest since December 2010, and even quite possibly, the coldest since 1991. Hopefully we will now have a consistent cross model agreement for the next few days. I still remember the "beast from the east" in December 2012 which never was, although this time things are different with the SSW. Western Europe will be in for a hell of a shock, especially as we are the cusp of a meteorological spring with the daffodils starting to emerge out of the ground in our front garden.

Looks like much better heights might be heading into Greenland.

It looks like we have to endure a few more days of rain, as the PV leaves Greenland and heads this way, not what many people want especially in the North. However on the positive side, the PV is leaving Greenland so this may allow heights to build into it in the later frames. We shall see. Clearly the PV is suffering at the moment.