Chris101

At the end of the day the signs are good, every front and trough that crosses the UK has lots of fluctuations and divergences from what was forecast, little waves and pivots, sudden intensifications of certain areas. The thing is that most of the year this makes no difference to us whatsoever and to a certain extent we don't even notice that we got a fair bit more or less rain than was forecast or it rained for 2 hours longer than they said. Now when that precipitation leaves a deposit behind that we can see all those fluctuations come into play a whole lot more, rest assured the guys at meto will be trying madly to work as much detail as they can to add in to the model, but it wont be easy for them, like i say, the most of the year they really don't have to worry about these minor details, it just ends up with you saying it was meant to stay clear till lunch but its raining already. How many times a year does anyone notice that they were forecast 4.6mm of rain but actually got 6.0mm?

Must say i was fully expecting reports of a dusting in places this morning, seems we are going to have to fight for it.

Yes, Dps still to high in Norwich and Weymouth at around 2c, just down the road out of the North Sea flow they are more like -2c

E4 Day after Tomorrow if anyone fancies it

Agreed it will certainly have adjustments made before Tuesday.

I might get some depth at the top of the Orwell bridge then, thats about the best height i can get for miles around these parts.

My first thoughts on UKMO run tonight was how much it matched their 6-15 a few days ago.

In the here and now, winds really blowing in the North of the region as per meto warning. Wraparound trough may slowly be turning more sleety as the sun drops and temps drop off.

Yes it will be right up to Tuesday, which is why i shall wait till post low to get any excitement for Thursday. Actually, reading my post back i think its clear its subject to change.

Certainly looking very nice, we are almost there with Tuesday now but have to remember how many days and runs its taken to get here, have to keep our feet on the ground still regarding Thursday, there are still a lot of possible outcomes, i think we may have to wait until Tuesdays low outcome to really firm up on Thursdays. The good thing about chasing Thursdays prospects is that a fair few of us should see snow falling whilst we do.

Yes wraparound trough coming down the north sea seems to be beefing showers up coming through the South of the region from the Cheshire gap area.

Give it time you'll soon understand who to listen to and who to scroll on by. There's a little band who turn up with a bad run, their posts usually start "I've been saying all along" Lots of wannabe forecasters who write stuff with no idea of what they are saying. So many on Friday gone were writing posts detailing the complete collapse of the cold this Thurs coming with full agreement from all models and this was our last chance at winter. 24 hours later they are trying their hand at in depth analysis again forgetting their claims from the previous day. As I say you get used to who the respectable posters are that know what they are talking about. Luckily for us we have probably the best of them in our regoinal

Find yourself looking out the windscreen with a strange look and a cranked neck saying "Yes its definitely splodging"

It does seem after a break from the first front of rain the wraparound looks like it could just give something. Will certainly be a noticeable change in temps by then, precip should at least start changing to the splodgy kind.

Sorry @Mizzle went away from lappy, i use xcweather myself, it uses official stations so your not getting bad obs from badly sited stations. https://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Wow Ukmo throws in a big run, curveball style. .....and at probably the more realistic timeframe that blocks appear in my previous experience.

To all that are banging on off it goes into France, looks more like LP centre turns up the French Channel coast.

Be good to watch temps and DPs come South tonight, how quick can they push into the front.

A wise weatherman once said to me a chart doesn't become a great chart until the day after.

Does start to seem a bit that way, but Its hard not to look like that when we actually get something into a range where we can start modelling features with a bit of finer detail.

Pretty sure thats what we dont want. Anyone clarify??

Lol, and neither has the first one, which some are starting to take note of at last, certainly think some agreement on that before something thats happening days later.

Just a note to people who have been watching run after run, in just the last month whilst the pattern has been in its seemingly repetitive state. As well as seeing a lot of wonderful looking LP's sliding in a lovely position for locking in the cold, i have seen numerous runs with massively blown up LP's over the UK. I don't remember either coming off yet.

Please never write this again. You have mislead NO-ONE If anyone feels they have been mislead by your predictions and interpretations then they are playing the wrong game and should probably get out while they still can. Please @TEITS don't delete your posts ever just because you suddenly think someone might get mislead if it changes.

Morning All, Well nice to see people in here looking at what could be on offer in the next few days rather than the middle of next week. One low at a time, thats all we can really look at........Sundays low track is pretty much agreed to bring the colder air back in to the UK. Now Mon/Tues is where us guys need to pay attention over the next few runs. Don't need to get to hung up on the Lp after that, Sundays Lp took most of this week to finalise some sort of track.