At my age I've seen it on numerous occasions, warm to freeze.
Like a few have said it's the small difference between wrong side and right side, again in my years of models imo I would rather see crap synoptic for cold at long range slowly nudge towards something in better favour than the continuous glory charts slimming down to a sudden fail. When people say look for trends in the models, it's hard to see it but that is a trend and not for good, so again the best hope is for something to buck that trend.
So as it goes will we get from warm to cold or not enough push and stay mild, I use the word push because just at the right moment the mjo push begins to show.
Now we really begin to have hope.