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  1. Not sure how you can jump to that extreme a conclusion, the models are not great at all at forecasting more than a week ahead. However, despite no SSW we still had substantial cold in December and already here in South Wales we are well below average temps again for a few days. In December we spent about two weeks with sub zero temps, now considering Met Office data shows average low through Jan and Feb for much of the UK (including here) is only zero degrees, our -9 was substantially below usual temps, and as colder here than it was in 2010, although not as cold for as long we still had two w
  2. Is it not a prettt decent storm today? Within the 2 day period. Forecasted over 4 weeks ahead. Impressive. I know people dont want to derail thread but the detail of the forecast is to accurate and to frequent to be chance. Give credit where credit is due I say
  3. Hi Bryan.I personally think he is the best forecaster I have encountered. People are too quick to dismiss him, often because they have just believed what others have said without looking for themselves, because people get into clicks and dislike anyone outside of their little cozy groups, because people dislike any competition despite credibility etc.For example, someone here answered you with a NO, he is not credible, despite admitting not even following his work, or most likely not ever having purchased his forecast and not honestly knowing what Piers has forecast, which is very common, peop
  4. That is exactly why forecasting by comparing similarities is useless. Just because two things look the same over two periods, doesn't mean the causes were the same, and while it can appear to be accurate from looking at the most statistical outcome quite often, it's not a genuine understanding or a good method for forecasting as there will always be years that won't be average and unless you know all the causes and how each cause interacts with all the others, then people will keep getting caught out making forecasts based on cosmetical similarities. I As highlighted, no doubt there will be go
  5. Plenty of snow in South Wales this morning and into mid day, stuck on high level roads and a few cars have gone down banks after leaving snowy roads.I don't know why people say years that are similar to this have ended up badly, sorry but weather is chaotic and doesn't work like that. 2 very similar years could have very different causes, or even a number of different causes so comparisons like that are very unscientific, illogical and not even good mathematically, sounds kinda pointless to compare years. Although, people are far more confident on other threads like interesting activity on the
  6. Personally I don't care when, as long as it comes. Preferably cooold!, prolonged and deep snow with some howling winds that carries away the sound of your voice into the whiteout. Some shocking drifts from the bliazzardy conditions. As long as I can get all that, I don't care when it comes, I will be ready... same as I am every year, winter gear just sitting there in it's place ever year just waiting for some good snow conditions. Of course I will settle for less and always make the most of what I get, even if it means having to romp all over the mountains to find the better stuff. But I'm wai
  7. Is it really on the rise? from what I have seen it was in decline. The CM Predicts a rise while the SC predicts a drop but I don't think anyone can say for certain.http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphics/wolfjmms.php
  8. @John Badrick, There hasn't been any increase in activity on the sun. The sun as of today is still at low level activity as it has been in quite some time. There are sunspots visible on the disc but non of them are magnetically complex at this time. Check SolarHam website for reliable up to date information on solar activity: www.solarham.net The current activity is still in a nose dive as can be seen in the graph updated by Nasa this week. They have been forced to reduce their cycle count prediction after increasing it to 72 a few months back: http://solarscience....v/predict.shtml
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