[Storm Ciarán]

7 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

My old fashioned barometer inherited from my grandparents via my mum. Never seen it as low. No idea what the actual pressure is mind since I’m not sure how to read it correctly. Not particularly windy here. Bit of a disappointment thus far

It's Mercury inches. 27.9 is approx 945. Lovely looking old device and functional too!

[Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts]

12 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

What would this indicate??

Southerly-tracking jet and a Genoa low = cold in Blighty.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Is Thursday a ec46 update night? If so I've seen no updates.  

Because it’s Wednesday? 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Dec 2010 was the 2nd coldest December in 350 years. Of course the current spell isn't comparable to that: it would be miraculous if it was. But this is certainly a notable Dec spell by any measure for the UK. Current CET is 2.0 which compares with Dec 95 and Dec 96. IMBY, it's colder than Dec 09 which was very cold and snowy (more so than Dec 10).

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Absolutely gorgeous day here. Hoar frost coated everything, bright sunshine and not a breath of wind. Beautiful: you’d have to have no soul not to appreciate it. 
Anyway, I can’t vouch for this guy, but Ant Masiello retweeted him, so…

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If you look closely, 3 members dip below -6 and off the scale, but only 2 return.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

7 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Which one is 'GEM'?

CMC (Canadian Met Centre)

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Just now, IDO said:

GFS 18z continues on its merry way, three runs in a row, consistent or consistently wrong? It is anti-ECM medicine, and trumps the 12z with a much better solution by D9:

Clearly if you want cold the GFS option is great. Next instalment tomorrow morning...

Yes, it’s the opposite of what you’d expect really  with the GFS op stalling and disrupting the depression and the ECM op sending it barrelling through E/NE. It’s all so messy that I doubt this will get resolved tomorrow.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Not often you see those purple geopot heights so close to the UK:

Reasonably high surface pressure and a slack-ish flow too, so you'd imagine that would be very cold overnight in the Highlands.

[Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions]

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

11 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The difference in accuracy between them is negligable, that doesnt mean the op is likely to verify mind.

Yeah, it's interesting that despite a decade or more of upgrades, the GFS really hasn't improved all that much:

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

24 minutes ago, sundog said:

A bit off topic but wasn't it the movement  of Azores high that kicked off the cold spell mid Dec 09? Usually an enemy for coldies but that was one of the rare occasions it was a friend. 

Sort of, but the whole Northern Hemisphere profile was more or less split in two.

[Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Had a frost this morning. Absolute scenes.

[Historic Lake Effect Snowfall Event (Buffalo New York)]

8 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

It's officially record breaking.

The highest lake effect snowfall ever. 

Previous record was back in 1994 according to CNBC.

And it's mid November!

To be fair, you’d expect it early in the season when water temps are at their highest.

[Historic Lake Effect Snowfall Event (Buffalo New York)]

Buffalo Bills are at home on Sunday 1pm kick off. That will be...interesting. It is very rare for the NFL to postpone games because the schedule is so tight, but this could be record-breaking.

[Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Ironically, the Scandi HP that everyone craves is stalling the depression over the SE today.

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I’m not sure, I wish someone would publish a database showing all years that had a SSW and the date it occurred (maybe one already exists but I cannot find it).

As for this year, it just seems unlikely we’ll see one within the next 4-5 weeks but after that is a different matter.

SSW Compendium

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/

 

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

That MetO contingency forecast identifies the 2 specific drivers being La Nina and the -IOD.

But same time last year was also La Nina and -IOD (albeit weaker), so not sure why the forecast is different this time. 

FWIW, this is the one year I'd prefer a milder winter (for obvious reasons), so it would be typical if it ended up being colder.

[Summer 2022 Chat]

28C Marham at 11pm. What’s the criterion for the highest minimum in a day?

[Summer 2022 Chat]

 

[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

16 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Unfavourable official sites is the only reason IMO. Lots of places will have exceeded 40C but unfortunately the official stations are few and far between in that region.

Yes, that’s why the official record is - whisper it - a bit meaningless. Add in the lack of homogeneity between stations too. Nonetheless, this is the hottest day in the UK probably for 1000s of years. So quite notable, lol.

[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

What’s remarkable is just how many stations are going to beat the old record.

[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

It's much cooler tonight than last night.

Not in East Anglia, as far as I can tell.

[Temperature Record Monitor Thread]

Leaving aside today’s madness, the nighttime record is going to get absolutely annihilated tonight.

[Summer 2022 Chat]

There was a thread a few years ago discussing what it would take for the UK to record a 40C temp. The consensus was that it would take a very unusual set of circumstances. Turns out all we had to do was wait.