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Yarmy

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Everything posted by Yarmy

  1. I drive up and down this road all the time:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46918039

    2 things about the article. Apparently Roy was "driving home" in a cycling helmet. And Theresa sent a get well soon message to the Duke. No news about the 2 women and baby he hit though.

    1. Show previous comments  2 more
    2. jtay

      jtay

      Christ knows how many avoidable deaths we've had on the A338 outside our village. Council won't be moved on the speed limit.
      Get an old royal in an accident and a speed reduction is approved the day after.

    3. Dami

      Dami

      well the police will do tit nothing. Anyone else would probably be seen by a doctor to see if they should continue to drive, he just gets a new car. 

    4. Ed Stone

      Ed Stone

      Aye. And Joe Public pays for the bloody thing!

  2. Not often we talk about all the action being SOUTH of the M4 corridor: Block getting reinforced. Sidney will need to prepare:
  3. Absolutely primed for a battleground with the entrenched cold air:
  4. This was a little "WTF?" moment for me until I realised that the thumbnail/preview image was cached. A bit off-topic, but here's a tip to avoid this. You can obviously just download it then upload it to Netweather (and that's the best way because it ensures the image you want is always shown), but there's another way if you can't be bothered with the faff. When you copy the image URL, append a token like '?v=yarmy1.0' or whatever to the end, so that the URL becomes unique. E.g. NB. It's usually not required for Meteociel charts as all the URLs have timestamps. Note also that although the thumbnail/preview image will always show correctly when appending a unique token to the URL, the original image behind it will vary. Wetterzentrale replaces the images on the model runs each day, for example.
  5. Yesterday's ECM 12z T168 Today's UKMO T144 Sharper and more aggressive ridging on yesterday's ECM. Still, the UKMO could be a lot worse.
  6. Indeed, nothing has really changed if you follow the means. Last night’s 12z op was at the cold end of the spread, and yesterday’s 0z op was on the mean.
  7. Yes, looks like it has phased the 2 storms south of Greenland like the ECM. Next question is would it cleanly eject the segment and allow the ridge to build behind it at T168. But of course, we can't see that chart because of the Hamberder man. GFS is a mess. (which is not to say it's wrong yet)
  8. There's not much point in looking at the ECM, UKMO, GFS, GFSP, GEM, EPS Ens, GEFS, EC46, et al. if a paragraph of vague words with attendant uncertainty is all that's needed. It shouldn't be dismissed, but nor should it be considered the one true path to enlightenment.
  9. Yeah, agree with this. The ridging at T168-T192 on the ECM just looks a bit too aggressive and sharp. Also seems a bit early in the context of the EC46 anomalies posted yesterday?
  10. I don't know if the GFS is affected by the shutdown or not; there are conflicting reports, as we see above. What I do know is that its verification stats are currently atrocious, as bad as I've seen them: Trailing the GEM and barely ahead of the NAVGEM. Its new sibling is faring better, but still way behind the Euros.
  11. Yarmy

    Breaking news

    Appears to be affecting Wales as well.
  12. Yarmy

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    There are loads of forecasts methods. These are 3 that SIDC publish: For what it's worth, the Denkmayr Combined Method (green line) performed best during SC24 max correctly predicting the size of the second peak. However, all these methods are apparently less effective in predicting minimums. Should know which one is on the money by the end of the year.
  13. This prompted me to have a look around to see what's been affected. It looks like the National Weather Service has "excepted status" which means they have to go on working even if they don't get paid, it seems. It's obviously important that things like the radiosonde network are kept running, not just for the GFS but for all the other models which use the data. This ECM article from 2015 shows how important it is: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/149/meteorology/global-radiosonde-network-under-pressure When the Russian met reduced their radiosonde readings from twice a day to once a day, it had a significant effect on the forecast skill.
  14. Hurricane Sandy was a fairly large low off the Eastern USA that ended in utter humiliation for NCEP. Anyway best wait for the para, eh?
  15. This simply isn't true: I don't know where these ideas come from. It's like saying that the ECM forecasts Reading better because that's where the computer is.
  16. Another eye-catching GEFS mean at 10hPa 60N this morning: Edit: Ignore the cached thumbnails. Click the actual images to see the up to date versions. The current 0z mean dips to -16m/s. Edit2: A little experiment: Ok, so you can bypass the thumbnail caching issue by appending a unique query string to the url, e.g. ?v=1.0, as I've done above.
  17. Might be better if Liam attempted engagement and education with the public instead of supercilious sneering. It doesn't look very professional.
  18. Yarmy

    What is meant by "amplification"..?

    Yes. Just to avoid confusion, you'll notice in the chart title something called geopotential height (gpdm) which is measured in tens of metres (decametres). That *is* referring to height above the surface, and when people talk about "heights" in the model thread that is what they are referring to. Look at the deepest orangey-red colour in the Atlantic ridge. That corresponds to a geopotential height of between 584 and 588 decametres. What that means is at that location that you'd have to travel 5840 metres vertically upwards before the pressure dropped to 500hPa. Now look at the deep blues in the trough over the Baltic Sea. That corresponds to a geopotential height of 510 decametres or so. In other words you would only have to travel 5100 metres upwards before the pressure dropped to 500 hPa. Now, if you then continued vertically upwards from 5100 then the pressure would drop even further. In other words, what the colours show on these charts is the relative pressure pattern aloft. The white lines show the pressure at sea level. Both are useful, but the geopotential heights are not complicated by the orography of the surface (mountains, etc) so in some sense give a "cleaner" view of what's happening.
  19. Last 4 0z op runs from the weatheriscool site: A few daily records are going to be broken, that's for sure.
  20. Since the splitting of the energy over the Atlantic now appears to be resolved (more or less), the next hurdle is whether we can get lower heights dropping from Svalbard through Scandinavia and phasing with the low heights over mainland Europe to help prevent the block sinking. The GFS managed this, but the Para hasn't. Looking through the GEFS at T138, some of them achieve this and some don't. https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=138
  21. The GEFS are all over the shop even at T96: https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=96 No need to guess where the uncertainty is:
  22. Excellent UKMO All down to the how the models are handling the shortwave lows S of Greenland early in the runs.
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