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Yarmy last won the day on September 14 2017

Yarmy had the most liked content!

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  • Gender
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    Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Interests
    Football, Science, Alcohol, Cheese
  • Weather Preferences
    Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings

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  1. The Met Office receives approx £83m from the Department of Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy annually, along with some funding from other non-public sources. For that we have: How valuable is the Met Office? WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The Latest Public Weather Service Value for Money Review - March 2015
  2. I think that's the work of @Recretos who posts here occasionally. He makes those incredible 3D strat animations.
  3. Just for context re:GloSea, this was the prediction from July for Aug/Sep/Oct. A fairly strong signal for a +NAO over the period. Both Aug and Sep finished with a -NAO overall, and - if the model output is to be believed - possibly Oct will too. I've no idea how winter will pan out, but all LRFs (warm or cold) need to be taken for what they are: experimental attempts at solving a potentially intractable problem.
  4. It's a little premature to talk of a stall, I think. As the Berlin QBO site says itself: QBO • Atmospheric Dynamics • Department of Earth Sciences WWW.GEO.FU-BERLIN.DE
  5. As the Earth approaches perihelion (in January), the adjusted solar flux is now lower than the observed flux. For example, yesterday's final reading of 66.0 has an adjusted value of 65.5sfu. At perihelion, the adjusted figure will be about 2.2sfu lower than the observed.
  6. He needs to sort that chart legend out. If anyone can resolve the colour differences between the years 2010 through 2013 they've got better eyesight than me.
  7. I skim-read that last night. It's a multiple linear regression based on the QBO and the 10.7cm radio flux for the past 60 odd years to predict the NAO and CET. No physics, just stats, so all moot really.
  8. It will be interesting to see whether the "blocky" tropospheric pattern showing for T168 onwards in the model output has any effect in terms of upward wave propagation on the stratosphere. There's little or no evidence of that in the latter stages of the GEFS as far as I can tell. One for the strat gurus.
  9. Just to add in today's update as the trend continues: 16th Oct T168
  10. While the selected GEFS members above are probably too extreme, the trend towards greater amplification into Greenland and an increasingly negative AO can be seen on the ECM 0z mean for the past 3 days: 13th Oct T240 14th Oct T216 15th Oct T192 The height profile over Western Europe is largely unchanged though.
  11. Yarmy

    Euro 2020

    Bulgaria are abysmal, San Marino-bad. I can remember when they were good.
  12. Well, not really, and in fact he kinds of mocks people who are extrapolating the current pattern to winter in the last tweet. The tweets are just about what will likely happen in the next few weeks (mild zonality), and nothing beyond that.
  13. Yarmy

    Euro 2020

    Yeah, that was poor. Defence really looks a mess.
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