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Yarmy last won the day on September 14 2017

Yarmy had the most liked content!

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    Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
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    Football, Science, Alcohol, Cheese
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    Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings

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  1. Yesterday's ECM 12z T168 Today's UKMO T144 Sharper and more aggressive ridging on yesterday's ECM. Still, the UKMO could be a lot worse.
  2. Indeed, nothing has really changed if you follow the means. Last night’s 12z op was at the cold end of the spread, and yesterday’s 0z op was on the mean.
  3. Yes, looks like it has phased the 2 storms south of Greenland like the ECM. Next question is would it cleanly eject the segment and allow the ridge to build behind it at T168. But of course, we can't see that chart because of the Hamberder man. GFS is a mess. (which is not to say it's wrong yet)
  4. There's not much point in looking at the ECM, UKMO, GFS, GFSP, GEM, EPS Ens, GEFS, EC46, et al. if a paragraph of vague words with attendant uncertainty is all that's needed. It shouldn't be dismissed, but nor should it be considered the one true path to enlightenment.
  5. Yeah, agree with this. The ridging at T168-T192 on the ECM just looks a bit too aggressive and sharp. Also seems a bit early in the context of the EC46 anomalies posted yesterday?
  6. I don't know if the GFS is affected by the shutdown or not; there are conflicting reports, as we see above. What I do know is that its verification stats are currently atrocious, as bad as I've seen them: Trailing the GEM and barely ahead of the NAVGEM. Its new sibling is faring better, but still way behind the Euros.
  7. Yarmy

    Breaking news

    Appears to be affecting Wales as well.
  8. Yarmy

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    There are loads of forecasts methods. These are 3 that SIDC publish: For what it's worth, the Denkmayr Combined Method (green line) performed best during SC24 max correctly predicting the size of the second peak. However, all these methods are apparently less effective in predicting minimums. Should know which one is on the money by the end of the year.
  9. This prompted me to have a look around to see what's been affected. It looks like the National Weather Service has "excepted status" which means they have to go on working even if they don't get paid, it seems. It's obviously important that things like the radiosonde network are kept running, not just for the GFS but for all the other models which use the data. This ECM article from 2015 shows how important it is: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/149/meteorology/global-radiosonde-network-under-pressure When the Russian met reduced their radiosonde readings from twice a day to once a day, it had a significant effect on the forecast skill.
  10. Hurricane Sandy was a fairly large low off the Eastern USA that ended in utter humiliation for NCEP. Anyway best wait for the para, eh?
  11. This simply isn't true: I don't know where these ideas come from. It's like saying that the ECM forecasts Reading better because that's where the computer is.
  12. Another eye-catching GEFS mean at 10hPa 60N this morning: Edit: Ignore the cached thumbnails. Click the actual images to see the up to date versions. The current 0z mean dips to -16m/s. Edit2: A little experiment: Ok, so you can bypass the thumbnail caching issue by appending a unique query string to the url, e.g. ?v=1.0, as I've done above.
  13. Might be better if Liam attempted engagement and education with the public instead of supercilious sneering. It doesn't look very professional.