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Yarmy last won the day on September 14 2017

Yarmy had the most liked content!

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5,452 Exceptional

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Interests
    Football, Science, Alcohol, Cheese
  • Weather Preferences
    Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings

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  1. Yarmy

    Premier League Discussion

    Just gonna leave this here.
  2. Yarmy

    Winter 2018/19

    Copernicus has the major European weather centre seasonals here: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/ UKMO, ECMWF, DWD (Germany), Meteo France, and CMCC (Italy).
  3. Yarmy

    Premier League Discussion

    Surely deserves one more game for England.
  4. Yarmy

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Really bizarre that Boulder hasn’t counted this since it’s still visible even now.
  5. Yarmy

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Not at all, it's normal. All the forecasts I have seen so far have been for SC25 to be about the same or slightly weaker than SC24 (including the one posted yesterday from Hathaway).
  6. Yarmy

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    The first SC24 spots formed long before the last solar minimum. There is always crossover because the solar min is just defined as the lowest smoothed monthly sunspot number. The new spot fits both the criteria for a spot belonging to the next cycle, namely: 1. It exhibits reversed polarity. 2. It's high latitude.
  7. Yarmy

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    It's still there right now, but I'd say it's fading as we speak (comparing the midnight snapshot with the current).
  8. Yarmy

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    A small spot formed in the NH yesterday.
  9. Yarmy

    England Football Team

    Mildly surprised that Ron Benson and Tony Hedges weren't called up. What a joke.
  10. Yarmy

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Spotless run will likely come to end tomorrow, as a new spot has appeared in the NH. It's high latitude and has reversed polarity, so it's likely an SC25 spot too.
  11. Yarmy

    Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    I've watched it in full now. It's a little difficult to follow because of Zharkova's, um, exotic oscillating accent. However, if you filter out all the climate stuff (presumably in there for the audience) and the demonstrably false claim that she and her colleagues were the only ones to predict the last solar maximum, then there is some genuine science in there. It's much clearer here: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689 So it's an application of PCA to the observed solar magnetic field since 1979 which is then extrapolated backwards and forwards to hindcast and forecast solar activity over 1000s of years. There isn't a single mention of climate. I've got no idea whether there's any merit to it, but it's a good theory in the sense that we won't have to wait long to see if it fails.
  12. Duh, a low *maximum* of course, not minimum. Time for bed.
  13. Where are you getting 4 out of 100 from? The most comprehensive review I’ve seen was here: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html Of the 45 assessed, 16 went low, 22 medium, and 7 high. All but 1 of the forecasts that used purely physical methods correctly predicted a low minimum.
  14. Yarmy

    Report Climate change ipcc

    So you object to the name given to the process of decreasing PH levels in the oceans, but you accept that it is happening?
  15. Agree. At this stage, I'm mostly interested (since this is the hunt for cold thread) to see if we can get enough wave activity flux propagating upwards to disrupt the Strat vortex and then see if we get a corresponding downwelling for when winter proper begins. That's on the scale of several weeks though.