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Everything posted by tight isobar
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A rough start??. You wouldn’t have the GFS atm as a babysitter!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Bang on.. the evolutionary trait of the gfs after 108/168.. is somehow disturbing!!.. it deviates in a Bipolaric slant…. Then by way of narssasism, goes from zero to hero…. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
1 certain aspect now. It’s as plain as , plain. The gfs- American model..is either having a bout of turmoil.. or is going to lead rapid now via it’s evolution/evolutions. And the cut point is without doubt via the overnights. 00z suites.. at least resolve is near. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The good point in basis.. when the American mod op/raw- is up against most/ all other raws at given time stamps!! And also starts shortwave/ lps ejection from the weaker lobe… it’s failing.... so the gfs is on dynamic .. playing catch up. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shutdown time again.. the gfs is either seriously misfiring on the polar field.. or it’s steadfast with the new by road!!@simple… -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Icelandic wave still niggles but as former the breakaway relative shortwaves look better tracked.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Without getting into-inter run to run snaps…. This is where explosive energy’s could bear fruit via gfs- evolution. A cluster bomb drop of shortwaves bonding.. can quickly distract western lobe transfer -east.. we’ll see in this run But it’s a start for the good. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
While the 18z gets running .. just to flag up .. the devolution between today’s 12z mst’s and the 12z yesterday!.. via the gfs !!… the switch is emmense!.. the 18z should re- ignite the pathway… ?!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Whatta winter That was 12yrs old and.. it still sticks with me… also RIP Ian mCcaskill…another 1 has to bite someday… “ is it now”?? … maybe??!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The overall Synoptics are the main point…And the ec12z offers up very decent ones for cold for the uk @168- and forwarding.. you’d take these Synoptics at any given year.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
“Summed up”… it’s as much use looking at precipitation charts.. anytime at such long time frames… let alone northern hemisphere modeling being clueless- as a whole- at that range -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Straight up here (no offense to yaself or indeed anyone)- but looking at singular time wrap precipitation frames… when the state of flux grand scheme is in turmoil for decipher in itself.. ain’t at all worthy! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No lies .. we need every dynamical reinforcement. To de-stabilize the morphing of the father/ daughter lobes!.. this is where the models are at loggerheads though (which is good)!.. as the energy forcing through the at/ nw- polar reaches are in a state of confuse right now.. but the feeling is positive… as you’d expect such as the polar reaction is always a confuse of mass b4 cross/ stable alignment. I’m sure we have this -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs falling off the boat here!! And is making AGAIN a mess and a mountain- out of pac ridge format.. and miss management of energy’s for sure now !!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Brutal arctic air looking to want to spill.. the Greenland/Canadian formats also looking good for the holding pack!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You been on the vino at all ,this arvo nick -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Very nice.. much sharper Synoptics.. helping the alignment of both flow.. And blocking @ the German mod.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
tight isobar replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Much better on the German..early in